Calm as preserved, FanGraphs has released its updated MLB playoff odds for the upcoming 2026 season. Right now, as the offseason begins to transition into the ever-optimistic days of spring training, FanGraphs’ projection model makes it look like the Atlanta Braves should have very good reason to feel optimistic heading into the regular season.
While FanGraphs believes the American League is shaping up to be a big battle royal between four AL East teams (Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles), the Tigers and the Mariners, the situation in the NL appears to be a little clearer. Right now, with the Dodgers being the clear favorites to not only win the National League, but also retain their World Series crown, the projection model believes the Braves have the best chance to dethrone the Southern California juggernaut.
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FanGraphs currently projects that the Braves will win 92 games (I summarize and will for the rest of the article, if necessary) and lose 71 — giving them a 47 percent chance of reclaiming the NL East title, a 39 percent chance of getting a bye, a 40 percent chance of securing a wild card spot, and then an 87 percent chance of just making the playoffs. This all culminates with FanGraphs’ model giving the Braves an 11 percent chance of winning the World Series – good for the second-best odds not only in the NL but in all of baseball right now. Now granted, the Dodgers currently stand head and shoulders in the field with a projected 27 percent chance of winning the World Series, but Atlanta’s chances are still nothing to sneeze at.
It also shows that the model seems very impressed with the work the Braves have done to strengthen their bench to withstand the losses of Ha-Seong Kim and Sean Murphy for the first part of the season. This also shows the confidence the model has in Atlanta’s star players performing like stars in the future. ZiPS currently projects that Ronald Acuña Jr. and Drake Baldwin will lead the way in terms of hitter WAR and they also believe that Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach should make for a pretty formidable top three for Atlanta’s rotation when it comes to pitcher WAR.
Now, as the saying goes: you can’t play a game on a spreadsheet. The Braves have had rosy projections for a few years now and they’ve managed to fall well short of those projections over the past two seasons. The team still has to get on the field and get the job done and they will of course face two very tough division foes in the form of the Mets (projected for 90 wins) and the Phillies (projected for 87). It certainly won’t be a cakewalk for the Braves and, ultimately, it will just come down to this team living up to the backs of their respective baseball cards. We all know that this core of players is capable of doing great things on the field – we’ve seen it over the years. Again, they just have to do their job.
Regardless, the Braves once again have high expectations heading into the upcoming season. I hope they live up to those expectations so we can have another fun season here. We’ll see what happens!
