Pittsburgh Panthers 9-12 (2-6) at Clemson Tigers 17-4 (7-1)
When: Saturday 1/31, 12:00 p.m. (Eastern Time)
TV: ACC Network
Or: Littlejohn Coliseum – Clemson, South Carolina
Temperature Check at Clemson
Clemson finds itself ranked 28th in KenPom and alone holds 2nd place in the ACC at 7-1 in conference with NC State and Virginia close behind at 6-2. The Tigers started conference play 6-0 before stumbling at home against NC State. The Wolfpack is a high-ceiling team that is tough to beat when their shots are falling like they were that night. They’re even more difficult when you’re making countless unforced errors turning the ball over and missing free throws. That’s what Clemson did in that loss, but they bounced back last Saturday with a road win — their 12th in a row — in Atlanta against Georgia Tech.
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Now they had this week off to rest before a home game against Pittsburgh. Aside from Zac Foster’s season-ending knee injury, they are relatively healthy and competing well in this competition.
The first match
Although Georgia Tech is Clemson’s assigned perennial rival, the Tigers also play Pittsburgh twice instead of playing Virginia at all. This is certainly not a complaint. We’ll play the much easier opponent without a problem, but that’s another quirk of the ACC. Since Clemson already played and beat the Panthers in Pittsburgh, we can start this preview with a look back.
On January 3, Clemson earned its second ACC victory of the season by defeating the Panthers in snowy Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 73-68. Pitt’s season was just beginning to tip toward disaster at that point, and they fought. Pitt led by one at halftime, but it was Jestin Porter who produced the Tigers’ first 20-plus point performance of the season. He finished with 21 points including three 3-pointers in the second half.
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For Pitt, it was Demarco Minor who led the way with 17 points. He hasn’t cracked the top 13 since and scored just three points in Tuesday’s overtime win over Wake Forest. Typically, guard Brandin Cummings and 6-foot-10 center Cameron Cohren lead the way, but both had foul trouble with Cummings limited to 15 minutes and Corhen fouling out.
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What’s up with the Pittsburgh Panthers
Since the home loss to Clemson, the Panthers are 2-4 with a bad loss to Boston College. This placed them last in my latest ACC power rankings (see below):
Pittsburgh’s defense is not a strength. They rank 128th in defensive efficiency, in part because they don’t do a great job generating turnovers. The Tigers have done a good job limiting turnovers this season, ranking 36th in offensive turnover percentage, but that number is trending in the wrong direction. In conference play, they are just 7th in the ACC in the metric and they have double-digit turnovers in four straight games.
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Pittsburgh’s strength rebounds. Cameron Cohren is particularly strong on the offensive glass, but the Tigers limited him to just one offensive rebound in Game 1 and a repeat would be ideal. Forcing turnovers on defense while getting second chances on offense is Pittsburgh’s clearest path to springing an upset.
Overview
In 21 games, it is clear that Coach Brownell has managed to build a strong team and have them play like a real team with “grit”. They are the better team and, at this point, the better program as they have beaten Pitt 14 times in a row. Pitt made the tournament 10 straight seasons from 2002-2011 and has 7 Sweet 16 appearances in its history, so it’s a little hard to believe, but Pitt is in a bad way these days and Clemson should take care of business. In addition to a victory, limiting turnovers to less than 10 would be an encouraging sign.
The Tigers need to avoid showing any rust entering their bye week. If they bring the energy necessary to avoid a rebound in the deficit and the rigor necessary to control their turnovers, they should win this one without too much trouble. Those are big “ifs,” but KenPom projects a 12-point Clemson win, and I will choose to believe in the maturity of this team.
KenPom: Clemson 74, Pittsburgh 62
Kanteur: Clemson 73, Pittsburgh 66
