In a few weeks, the College Football Playoff will be complete and final, a Heisman will be handed out and bowl season will take shape.
Let’s get straight to the point; the season is moving too quickly.
We have said it before and we will say it again; savor each week while you can. When it comes to this week’s locks, we’ll savor every win, no matter the circumstances. In Week 11, we won four and lost five.
We had some failures on both sides, although we’re not particularly happy with the end result. For the year we are now 53-51-2. It’s time to make some separation between victories and defeats.
Before we do that, here’s what went right (and wrong) the previous week.
The good: UCF (+2.5) vs. Oklahoma State: This one was over in about seven minutes. Central Florida absolutely destroyed Oklahoma State, and we really didn’t have to sweat after the first quarter.
The bad: Wisconsin (-10) against North-West: Well, this might be the worst choice of the year. Wisconsin fell behind early, stayed behind and lost badly. I would like to apologize to my family, friends and all of you for this situation.
With that, here are the selections.
For the latest broadcasts on these games, go to DraftKings.
The truth is, I live for point spreads like this. I search through the endless piles of CFB games to find games that fit this mold.
The public will line up to bet on the team that has only lost one game this season, especially considering they are facing a team that has lost outright a handful of times this year.
Indeed, head coach Mario Cristobal would probably want a mulligan on a handful of decisions he’s made. Despite these issues, the Hurricanes played tough against Florida State last week, and they are about to be tough again.
After benching Tyler Van Dyke for freshman Emory Williams, Van Dyke eventually returned to the game after Williams’ injury. Van Dyke will get the start here, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. This seems like the perfect place for some proper redemption.
While Louisville deserves the highest praise for reaching nine wins, the Cardinals have yet to win an ATS game on the road this weekend.
Attention.
A loss in Washington wouldn’t be good for the bank account in many ways, as strange as it may seem when we choose the other side. Having invested in Michael Penix Jr. to win the Heisman, a loss would put a considerable damper on that move.
That said, it’s a fabulous place for the state of Oregon.
The Castors are undefeated at home. They also only lost one game against the spread while playing in their own building. This team is balanced, has solid line play on both ends, and has the pieces needed to push Washington’s undefeated season to the brink.
The Huskies, meanwhile, haven’t looked entirely healthy since beating Oregon. They won every game and deserve all the credit for doing so. But this is not the same dominant force we saw at the beginning.
Oregon State averages 5.39 yards per carry; Washington allows 4.37 yards per carry.
Expect Oregon State to control the ball. And expect one of the darlings of the CFB season to drop.
Ames, Iowa, knows how to generate a little chaos.
We’ve seen it before, often without much warning. A ranked team with conference or playoff aspirations faces Iowa State on the road. From there, madness breaks out.
As Texas attempts to claw its way into the playoffs, this appears to be a legitimate obstacle. A night game in Ames in November will be cold and scoring could be limited.
And while the Longhorns have the better team and better overall recovery, Iowa State has quietly won five of the last seven games. This team can be a force, especially at home.
On the other hand, four of Texas’ last five games have been decided by seven points or fewer. Playing on the road is particularly slippery, which sets the stage for a fascinating football match.
As has been the case of late, Texas managed to pull through. It will happen again at Iowa State, but it won’t be easy. Iowa State covers the spread and pushes for an upset.
Two months ago, these two programs were the darlings of a crowded Pac-12.
But now?
Washington State has lost six straight games; Colorado has lost six of the last seven games. Both teams had moments against better teams. Both teams fell flat in other spots as well.
As the Buffaloes hit the road, one can’t help but wonder how much they have left in the tank. The emotion surrounding the start of the year and the downfall that followed has clearly had an impact on this team.
Playing on the road in a late night game seems like a troubling place for the road team to be. Add in the potential of quarterback Cameron Ward, who threw for over 350 yards last week, and Washington State could finally end the losing streak.
Oh, and cover the spread.
Yes, Virginia only has two wins.
The bottom line is what it is, and there is no denying the end results. But over the last six weeks, even during the losses, this team has looked significantly improved.
The Cavaliers nearly toppled Louisville in Louisville last week. In fact, they should have won the game. Freshman quarterback Anthony Colandrea played well in this game and lately. In fact, he became a catalyst for the team’s improvement.
He’s also likely to be a matchup problem for a team that has struggled to score with quarterback Riley Leonard sidelined. Certainly, the Blue Devils deserve plenty of praise for pushing UNC into overtime on Saturday.
It was a superb performance. It was also an exhausting result. A road trip to Virginia, which clearly commands a lot of respect from punters, is far from ideal.
Virginia covers the gap and wins outright.
Tennessee (+10.5) vs. Georgia
This was a late addition to the picks. Otherwise we would have written more words. The pick could be summed up this way: Home field is a huge advantage in college football. Flights keep it pretty close.
Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Boston College
This football game will probably be gross, but Pitt is a much better team at home, too. Just ask Louisville. The Panthers win (and cover). Also look at something else.
Air Force (-3) vs. UNLV
Air Force has been bad lately and UNLV has been outstanding. The fact that the Falcons are still locked in like chalk is certainly intriguing. Here’s to the Air Force finding itself once again.
Wyoming (-13.5) vs. Hawaii
On the subject of streaky teams, enter Wyoming. The Cowboys helped us a lot this year, and they will do so again. A long road trip in the cold won’t do Hawaii any good.
FAU (+9.5) vs. Tulane
Every game Tulane plays seems to come down to one score. Despite that, it’s shocking to see this one in single digits given the way FAU played. Playing against the grain, oh.
