It should have been a carefree and relaxing Tuesday. I was settling in for a fantasy football audit, watching the teams advance to the semifinals. And finally, I arrived at my Guillotine League team, which had qualified for the 2-team final. Holding all the FAB leverage in this league, the stored waiver wire was for me alone.
Some choices were easy. Trey McBride, welcome aboard. Jahmyr Gibbs, come down. But then I opted for quarterback and the anxiety started to set in.
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What happened to the fantasy quarterback in 2025? And why can’t I choose someone I feel good with for week 16? I have 30 options to choose from and I only need to feel safe about one. Why is it so difficult?
My Guillotine League opponent holds Josh Allen and Drake Maye, two good answers from this season. If you went Vanity QB in your draft, Allen was the only right choice. If you went QB on a budget, Maye was one of the better choices. Everyone recognizes it.
I already had Matthew Stafford on my team, but I don’t like him for Week 16 – not in a head-to-head situation in the Guillotine League. Seattle is a tough road game, it’s a short turnaround for a Thursday game, Davante Adams might not play. I needed a safer choice, I knew that from the start.
But where are the safe choices?
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Jalen Hurts hasn’t been as proactive this year and he was pulled last week after Philadelphia got a head start. Even with Washington on the schedule, he makes me a little nervous. Maybe it’s just the gravity of the moment speaking.
Joe Burrow talked like a disengaged quarterback last week, then played like it against Baltimore. I’m also already linked to Ja’Marr Chase. I don’t want this duo to decide my match, even against Miami. I’ll obviously roll with Chase, but leave Burrow out.
Is Brock Purdy good enough to start when in theory I shouldn’t have worse than QB3 on the board? Can I trust Dak Prescott after Week 15 face-off against Minnesota? Do I have the courage to trust a companion like Jacoby Brissett, while recognizing that he has been under heating for two months? Hero of Garbage Time and all that. But do I want two Arizona plays in my championship game? Obviously McBride is going to start for me.
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Trevor Lawrence is in tears, that’s for sure. But I can’t play him in Denver, not in this format.
Then I thought, maybe I’m doing it wrong. Who has the easiest matchups for Week 16? Turns out they’re all bad quarterbacks.
Dallas is the simplest fantasy defense for opposing QBs. Justin Herbert draws the Pokes in Week 16. Herbert has the left hand problem and an offensive line ravaged by injuries. The Chargers don’t want to throw proactively these days. He came out.
Cincinnati’s defense is the second-best draw. Tua Tagovailoa was benched Wednesday for a seventh-round rookie. Miami is not a consideration.
Tampa Bay’s pass defense is the third target. Bryce Young is not good enough to play in a format that only requires one starter. Even in Superflex formats, Young is a hard button to click.
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JJ McCarthy against the Giants? He comes into play, but again, not good enough for this format.
I revisited the quarterback ADP from the summer, and 12 of the top 21 names had injury-ruined seasons (Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, CJ Stroud, JJ McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr.). And even some of the late-round miracles after that group (Daniel Jones, Jaxson Dart) were derailed by injuries.
And when quarterbacks are injured, offenses as a whole struggle. This is why 2025 has been such a challenge for so many fantasy managers. We just want to feel good against as many offenses as possible, and that’s been tough this year. And injuries have forced teams to scramble to find unusual replacements; guys like Joe Flacco and Philip Rivers have taken significant snaps this year. Carson Wentz and Mac Jones had their moments. Every few weeks I talk to someone like Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston. This is the world we live in.
After the season, I will review my series of exit interviews and do a more in-depth audit of what went well and what didn’t at each position. I guess today is just a practice round for the quarterback. But if you’re struggling with your Week 16 decisions, it’s probably not just the gravity of the moment speaking. You’re also probably tripped up by all the quarterback injuries and tricky matchup shape on this particular roster.
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Ultimately, I settled on Hurts for my Guillotine League Week 16 starter. I hope he gets started early, because I fear the Eagles could downgrade the offense if the game gets out of hand quickly. A defensive touchdown in Philly would also be painful for me because it would steal an opportunity on offense. But Hurts, even in his current form, is probably the right choice.
Paradox of choice That’s one thing, my friends. Sometimes it’s difficult to make a decision, even when the options are virtually limitless. Keep measuring all week, that’s what we do. But you should probably cut only once.
