“Oh my God, it’s happening. Everyone stay calm!! KEEP F***ING CALM!!!” –Michael Scott, The office
It’s only been two weeks, but for programs across the country — and three CAA teams in particular — there may be reason to heed the words of the “best boss in the world.” Whether it’s injuries, underperformance, coaching negligence, or a combination of all three, these teams haven’t quite lived up to their preseason expectations.
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I’ll give each team a panic rating, 10 being hair on fire.
Northeast Huskies (2-2)
At first glance, one might wonder what the Huskies are doing here.
Northeastern’s 2-2 record doesn’t scream panic, and its two wins are impressive road wins over Colgate and Harvard. Their two losses include a one-point overtime loss to BU and a loss to America East favorite Vermont in a game they consistently led until a 21-3 UVM run put them in the dirt. Forwards Youri Fritz and Xander Alarie have stepped up considerably, strengthening a frontcourt that looked like a huge question mark before the start of the season.
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So what’s the problem?
Well…moments before halftime of their Veterans Day win over Harvard, star guard LA Pratt took a strange step and came limping, limping to the bench. He didn’t return, and although his morale seemed good on the bench, you could sense the concern in and around the team regarding the health of its best player.
On Saturday, those concerns came to fruition. Tests showed that Pratt had a broken foot and out for the season. Through two and a half games, Pratt has been Northeastern’s focal point, averaging nearly 20 points per game heading into Saturday’s game.
Now his season is over and the Huskies – who have oriented this season around Pratt at this point – are rudderless. It’s a devastating blow not only to Northeastern, but also to Pratt, who was a preseason second-team All-CAA and looked poised for a breakout year.
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“Obviously, very disappointed for (LA),” Northeast head coach Bill Coen said after Saturday’s loss to Vermont. “I don’t think in my 20-year career there’s been a player that worked harder in the offseason…he got off to a good start and I thought he was going to have a great year. He’s a fabulous kid, and he’s going to bounce back and be even stronger.”
With Pratt out, Northeastern will turn to sophomore guard Luca Soroa Schaller, junior guard JB Frankel and freshman guard Miles Newton to handle the majority of the game duties. None of them come close to the value Pratt can provide, and while Soroa looked promising in his first start (15 points, six assists), he simply doesn’t have the same gravitas as Pratt. This will be a difficult task for the CAA’s northernmost representative, unless someone unexpected steps in in a big path.
Panic rating: 8/10
Charleston Cougars (2-3)
Charleston’s first three weeks include a DI win, against lowly SC State.
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Aside from that, he was pummeled by Liberty, lost in a battle to FAU and fell by nine to Drake. The final two went home, with star transfer Mister Dean in attendance for Drake’s game.
The Cougars’ defensive efficiency ranks in the bottom 20 percent in the country, according to KenPom, and while the offense has been good, it hasn’t been good enough to save them. Opponents get – and make – all the shots they want, and Charleston seems powerless to stop them.
However, look under the hood and all is not what it seems. For starters, the Cougars just can’t seem to get healthy; Between Dean, star transfer Colby Duggan, Clemson transfer Christian Reeves and Cincinnati transfer Connor Hickman (who is still awaiting an NCAA waiver), four of Charleston’s most important players have missed time. Plus, the Cougars were just unlucky. Opponents are shooting a ridiculous 40.6% from beyond the arc, while Charleston is just above 30%. Their defense has undoubtedly struggled, but one would expect these divisions to come back to reality as the waters return to their level.
It should be noted that in the immediate future the situation may continue to be bleak. The remainder of the CofC non-conference schedule is tough, with matchups against UMass, Belmont and South Florida before tapering off. It’s conceivable that Chris Mack’s team could enter conference games under a .500 average, which they almost never do.
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Long term? I still think they will be fine. Losing to three of the best mid-major programs in the country, Liberty, FAU and Drake, is no reason to sound the alarm, and things should even out. On the court, Middle Tennessee transfer Jlynn Counter showed enough to indicate he is a productive complementary player once he gets healthier, and freshman guard Martin Kalu did the same. Seven-foot redshirt sophomore Chol Machot is a terrifying deputy to the already impressive Reeves. Of course, as time passes without updates on Duggan or Hickman, things will get tougher, and if the defense continues to hemorrhage, question marks will start to appear.
However, conference play won’t pose as much competition and Charleston should be healthy then. Early season struggles aren’t going to help with an at-large bid, but that’s not going to happen anyway. However, they will need to achieve four or five quick victories in the CAA to reassure everyone.
Panic rating: 4/10
Hampton Pirates (2-4)
If the first six games are any indication, I might have been way too stoned in Hampton. entering the season.
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His attack was pitiful. His defense hasn’t really done anything particularly well. The Pirates are shooting just 24.6 percent from three against DI teams, and their offensive efficiency ranks 346th out of 365. Their brightest spot — senior forward Xzavier Long — is averaging a double-double but only 40 percent from the floor, and he’s a defender with marginal impact.
It’s worth noting that Hampton did something similar last year, going 2-5 against DI programs and starting just 3-7 against CAA foes. Ivan Thomas’ Pirates figured it out, though, stringing together two five-game winning streaks en route to a 17-16 record that no one really saw coming. This team, however, had a lot of depth, and this one cannot put forward that same claim, at least not yet.
No one stepped forward from a group of characters who seemed poised to do so at the end of last season. Long cannot operate as a standalone platform. Eunique Rink was invisible and Etienne Strothers did not live up to expectations. A slew of transfers have been categorically mediocre, with big Tennessee State center Josh Ogundele, USM wing Christian Watson and Hawaii newcomer Kody Williams failing to make an impact. There’s some talent here, so it’s hard to tell if it’s just a disappointing play or poor coaching, but either way, it’s a malaise that envelops the entire team.
While Charleston has a definitive formula for improvement, the best I can say for Hampton is pretty simple: They simply need to play better. That starts at the top, with Alcorn State transfer Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt, but that goes for almost everyone except maybe sophomore guard Daniel Johnson, who has been rock solid. Hampton was able to follow that advice last year, and there’s room to grow this year, but you’d like to see the Pirates find their groove sooner rather than later. Give Thomas’ team a few more weeks to gel, then start raising their eyebrows.
