WEST LAFAYETTE — After two consecutive years Purdue basketball losses highlighted by 3 points surrendered, a third perimeter challenge looms.
Tuesday’s match at Indiana marks a streak of four out of five road games. This also marks PurdueThis is the first confrontation in a long time with a Hoosiers team once again using the 3-point shot as a weapon. They’ve made 30 or more 3s in four of their last five games, including last week’s 15-of-35 bombing at Rutgers.
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Indiana does not seem to have Keaton Wagler hidden on his roster. His once-in-a-generation performance, complete with step-back bombs on defenders of all sizes and shapes, doesn’t really speak to Purdue’s biggest problem of late.
While IU has moved behind the arc, Boiler’s defense has moved in the opposite direction.
At some point, the home beating at the hands of Iowa State December 6 seemed to be a defensive turning point. Purdue has held four straight opponents – Minnesota, Marquette, Auburn and Kent State – to 60 points or fewer.
None shot better than 28% from 3. All committed double-digit turnovers. The Boilers dominated the defensive boards or thrived on the offensive glass at a greater rate than their opponent.
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Since the Big Ten restarted, however, six of nine opponents have exceeded their 3-point percentage in every other conference game. Focusing on the final five opponents, Penn State, Iowa, UCLA and Illinois have combined to shoot 46.3 percent from behind the arc. (USC, a poor 3-point shooting team, lived up to that reputation in Game 5.)
Specifically, opposing players who are 6-foot-7 or taller are shooting 51.7 percent over the last five games.
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This does not include the 6-6 Wagler. It does, however, include teammates such as Andrej Stojakovic, David Mirkovic, Tomislav Ivisic and Ben Humrichous. It includes Tyler Bilodeau, who was 3 of 7 from 3 before scoring the game-winner for UCLA. It includes Iowa’s Tavion Banks (3-3) and Tate Sage (2-4) and Penn State’s Eli Rice (3-4) and Josh Reed (3-4).
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If you collect small enough samples, does this constitute a trend? While you ponder this question, know that the 52.7% mark is actually dragged down by USC’s Chad Baker-Mazara shooting 1 of 6. Opponents 6-8 and up are shooting 63.8% from 3 over the last five games.
Long shots pose many problems for defense. Purdue had this element in its favor last season with Camden Heide (39.2%). He anticipates that Raleigh Burgess will provide a version when he comes back from a red shirt next season.
In two postgame news conferences last week and another interview session between the two, coach Matt Painter detailed the personnel issues at play.
Purdue added ultimate height to its roster to address last season’s rebounding deficiencies. Either Oscar Cluff or Daniel Jacobsen will be on the field with Trey Kaufman-Renn for the majority of the game. This is an ideal formation for scoring inside, rebounding and defending after – especially rim protection. This is often suboptimal programming to transition to shooters.
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When opponents capitalize on these matchups, the onus becomes more on Purdue to win inside. UCLA built an 8-1 advantage in blocked shots. Illinois was outscored 18-2 in second-chance points.
The Boilers also need stronger, more consistent defensive performances from the rest of the roster. They set the standard by which this season should be judged in terms of championship potential. Their defensive efficiency score adjusted to KenPom is almost identical to last season’s final score: 99.2 to 99.3.
At the same time, most opponents don’t have a Donovan Dent-Bilodeau combination. Most won’t put as many long shooters on the floor as Illinois. Fewer still will operate with Illini instinct and execution.
That showed on the four 3s Illinois hit in the final minutes of Saturday. Wagler didn’t make any, but his reading and awareness directly helped create a few.
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“They are the number one offense in the country for a reason,” Painter said. “It doesn’t start so much with elite talent as much as elite decision-making. They have very good decision-making. They have very good coaches as far as their offensive schemes and what they do.
“And they got the better of us today.”
Purdue also extended its winning streak to nine in a row while those defensive 3-point numbers drifted south. Reed is a career 32.2% 3-point shooter on 177 attempts. Banks went 2 for 22 at Drake last season. Sometimes playing around with percentages costs you dearly in the short term even though the plan is successful overall.
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The first opportunity to return to the story presents itself quickly.
Indiana ranks second among Big Ten teams in 3-point shooting in conference play. Leading the way are 6-7 Nick Dorn (45%) and 6-6 Lamar Wilkerson (42%).
Purdue, by the way, ranks 14thth in opposing 3-point percentage in Big Ten play.
“You go right back into that hive,” Painter said. “You have to guard and rebound, it’s the same thing. You want to respond to the ball and compete, but it’s going to be tough. They’re a good team.”
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This article was originally published on the Indianapolis Star: Purdue vs. Indiana Basketball Preview: 3-Point Shooting to Test Defense
