Statistics 2025: 32 GS, 182.1 IP, 3.65 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 109 ERA+, 1.212 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.2 fWAR
Robbie Ray was an All-Star in 2025. At least, until the All-Star break.
Her 2.65 ERA led the club to the July vacation. To this point in the season, he ranked in the top 10 among qualified MLB pitchers in innings pitched, balls in play batting average, runners blocked (LOB%), and opponents average. In tandem with Logan Webb, the two were co-aces leading one of the best rotations in the Majors. They made an odd but effective couple: one day, Ray’s blunt instrument attacks the letters; Webb is heavier on his knees the next.
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The invitation to the Midsummer Classic was well deserved. His final two seasons in Seattle and San Francisco were cut short by Tommy John surgery, then long delayed by recovery. But as the 2025 season began, Ray was finally healthy and throwing with purpose from the jump. The relief he felt at being back on the mound with regularity was clear, his loud grunts of gratitude echoing throughout the ballpark as he won his first three outings of the year. From the end of April to the beginning of June, the left-hander made eight consecutive quality starts. Her strong performance had Fangraphs blogger Ben Clemens sings his praisesamazed at Ray’s ability to do so much with so little. Just a mid-90s four-seamer, three mediocre secondary throws and a lot of backspin were apparently all he needed to not only be effective, but to reclaim his 2021 Cy Young form. Out of nowhere, he flirted with a “Maddux” in Arizona, throw his second career complete game. He then danced with future World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto just before the break, recording his 13th quality start in 20 games.
But this is, after all, a player review of the 2025 San Francisco Giants, so we know that the good times just don’t last — and Ray may have been the first body to fall off the back of the wagon.
His first start after the All Star break came in Toronto in which he allowed 5 earned runs in 4.1 innings pitched. It was his worst outing of the year up to that point – but there would be more competition as he and the Giants weathered the dog days of summer. After allowing just 4 earned runs in a start just once in his first 20 games, Ray has allowed at least 4 or more runs in 6 in his last 12 games, including a horrible stumble in which opposing teams scored 22 runs in 22.2 innings against him. his last 5 matches. His ERA on the “shorter half” almost doubled. His K/9 rate went down and his BB/9 rate went up. Balls in play began to find holes and open grass. The hitters became more persistent. Rounds lasted longer and became more difficult to close. Ray’s left on-base percentage dropped by almost 20 points. Opponent OPS increased from .608 to .810.
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As disappointing and as abrupt as the decline was, it shouldn’t have been too surprising. Fatigue is always a factor for any pitcher in the second half of the season. Not to mention the fact that Ray, who turned 34 in October, has been wringing his arm like laundry for over a decade now. The fabric is worn, the color is faded, and then there’s the long wrinkle from his Tommy John surgery dating back to 2023. His last full season with a proper pitching load was with Seattle in 2022 (189 IP/ 32 GS). Ray’s 119 innings logged over his first 20 starts were nearly four times his 2024 inning total.
While the final ERA of 3.65 in 2025 is surely a disappointment considering what Ray initially seemed to promise, it remains below his career mark, and the drop shouldn’t be too surprising. Looking back on his career, Ray has never been a steady hand. His three-outcome style exposes him to wild swings in results, making sustained dominance over an entire season difficult. Ray’s real achievement in 2025 is that he has remained healthy. For better or worse, he notched 32 starts for the fifth time in his career. His 182.1 innings were just 11 shy of his career high. He would have been considered the workhorse of the Dodger rotation, throwing more than Yoshinobu, more than double the regular season innings of Tyler Glasnow, nearly three times those of Blake Snell and nearly four times those of Ohtani.
Small points of pride — but points nonetheless.
Ray has one year left on his contract with the Giants, and given how the offseason has gone in terms of pitching acquisitions, the team is counting on him to reclaim his partnership with Webb at the top of the rotation. They need him to stay healthy again…and get better through August and September.
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Can he do this? Sureyeerrrrmaaheeyybeeee…
All I know is that Ray is a pitcher who can be both fun and infuriating to watch – and often those emotions are felt within the same game or inning. Much of his championship success came from getting out of his own way. Walks, circuits and circuit after walks have been his downfall for a long time now. When he won the AL Cy Young Award in 2021 with a league-leading 157 ERA+, his HR/9 rate was 1.5, the same rate as the following year in 2022 when he posted a 100 ERA+. Players will always hit the ball hard and in the air against Ray, the difference is if there are runners on base when this happens. Although he is certainly accustomed and accepted that walks are part of his game, they are still very important. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.77 in 2021 fell to 3.42 in 2022, while his walk rate increased from 2.4 to 3.0. This small increase has a ripple effect. All those extra pitches thrown and extended innings add up to over 180 innings and can reduce you to average.
A pitcher like Webb has a myriad of ways to get a hitter out in terms of pitch type and location. He is not afraid of contact as he is often pulled into the ground. Ray is playing a much more dangerous game. He must be missing the bats. He needs the strikeout, and to get a lot of strikeouts, counting leverage, tracking and whiff are key ingredients. Last season, Ray’s 27 Whiff-%, while still above leave average, was his lowest (over a full season) since 2016. His K/9 rate fell below 10 for the first time since 2015. More plate appearances ended when the batter was ahead in the count against Ray than behind (265 to 253). Counting leverage can be the difference between facing an All-Star in the box or Matt Cain. An .888 OPS and a .455 OPS are pretty tough, and for Ray last season, it ended up being a toss-up at times, what type of hitter he faced. Better not to leave this sort of thing to chance.
First strikes on the pitch are essential, as is finding a way to get back to a count you’ve fallen behind in. Webb’s strikeout-to-walk ratio after falling behind 1-0 to a batter was still 2-to-1 last season. For Ray, it was a little better than face-to-face.
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I think the key for Ray in 2026 is to reassert his fastball. This is somewhat obvious. As mentioned before, it’s no secret, with his backspin and rise, that this is his best pitch – but just because it’s his best pitch doesn’t mean it should be saved for two-strike situations. In its most successful years, the quadruple stitch was a dynamic weapon in every way. Ray threw a first-pitch fastball nearly 65% of the time in 2021, and last year that number dropped to 49%. In 2017 (his first All-Star year), he threw his four-seamer 53% of the time while leading the way in scoring. Last year, this usage fell further to 49%. When he was behind a batter in 2017, he threw his signature pitch 66% of the time; 65% in 2021 — but only 59% in 2025.
These are not monumental changes in approach, but the drops seem to hint at a hesitation or lack of conviction on the ground. For what? I don’t know, but Ray clearly needs to do better at establishing the fastball early against hitters. If he doesn’t do this, there is a negative spillover effect to the rest of his mix and his peripheral weapons become less dynamic. While his new version (with its Tarik Skubal-inspired handle) generated the most buzz last season, it’s Ray’s non-slip slider that really feeds off the four-seamer. Offering is an awkward duck, sure, with few drops or breaks, and easily turns into an ugly duck if left in the middle of the plate against righties, but when mixed well, they’re historically flummoxed hitters with whiff rates near 50% for years.
As you can see, in 2025, the slider’s whiff percentage rose to 29% – the lowest mark Ray has ever achieved in a full season of work.
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Ray’s fastball-slider pairing accounted for 90% (59% FF – 31% CH) of the offerings he threw en route to Cy Young hardware. Not all solutions lie in the past, and I appreciate the desire to evolve, especially as he approaches 30, but perhaps it’s best not to overthink some things. Ray needs to stop playing with toy throws like that joint curve and just rely on offense.
