FBYU is 7-0 and in a good position with a 19 AP Poll ranking and the best point differential in the country. With how low general expectations were among fans heading into the season, it almost seems too good to be true. I see a lot of fans starting to join this team, but they hold back a little to avoid getting hurt – I understand that!
So how good can BYU be? Is this crazy gold? I approach these and other topics in a buy, sell or hold format.
Is BYU an NCAA tournament team?
Verdict: BUY
Going into the season, I thought BYU needed to go 11-2 in non-conference and 7-11 in league play to get on the bubble. Now 7-0 to start the season, I think BYU will go 12-1 or 13-0 outside the league and have a great chance of getting at least 7 wins in the Big 12, which a month ago seemed be the best case scenario. scenario.
San Diego State, Arizona StateAnd NC State should all be at least Quad One or Quad Two games, which would be a solid non-conference resume considering the challenge that is the Big 12. If BYU beat Utah on the road, it would be a Quad One victory if the Utah ranks in the top 75 in the NET rankings.
There are no easy games in the Big 12, but BYU looks good enough to get at least 7 championship wins. Oklahoma State is off to a 3-4 start, UCF lost to Stetson and West Virginia looks unsettled after losing its head coach in the offseason and being without a few key players due to injuries or coaching issues. eligibility.
Is BYU a top 10 team?
Verdict: SELL
As of Dec. 2, BYU is No. 6 in KenPom, which is hard to understand. BYU leads the country in point differential and has some nice wins, but I don’t think they’re in the top 10.
BYU has some weaknesses that I think will be exposed by some teams in Big 12 play.
First, I think BYU will struggle with big, athletic guards who pressure the ball. NC State gave BYU problems early with its full-court press, but I’m not as concerned about the full-court press. Very few teams press throughout the entire match. I’m more concerned about teams picking up BYU’s guards 30 feet from the basket and disrupting the flow of the offense. Consider San Diego State: The Aztecs for about the first 10 minutes of the second half were really disrupting BYU’s rhythm and putting pressure on them in the half court. SDSU had some injuries that game and wasn’t able to keep up the pace and BYU’s offense responded. Having Aly Khalifa as BYU’s de facto point guard should help in part since he can run BYU’s offense from the top position.
My second concern is how teams will attack BYU’s front court. Whether it is Aly Khalifa or Fouss who plays the five, these two players have defensive deficiencies. Teams with five athletic and talented players will give BYU problems, and teams with high-end playmakers will look to isolate Aly and Fouss in the PNR. I think Aly gives a lot offensively, which causes mismatches, but there will be games where teams expose BYU that way.
All of this is not to say that BYU is bad! Every team has weaknesses, I just think those are the two places where BYU is most vulnerable. BYU will also have plenty of games where they expose teams with their three-point shooting and Aly’s ability to keep the opposing big man away from the basket and shred an opposing defense with pinpoint passes in a five-and-out attack.
More than anything, I hope BYU’s hot start doesn’t melt fans’ brains into thinking an 8-10 conference season would be disappointing. If BYU did this in America’s best conference — a year after BYU went 7-9 in the WCC — it would be an unequivocally successful season and would likely mean a berth in the NCAA tournament. And after going through the challenge of an 18-game Big 12 schedule, BYU would head into the NCAA Tournament more battle-tested than it has ever been.
Will BYU have five 10+ pts/game scorers at the end of the season? (h/t @yze_guy for the question)
Verdict: HOLD, with a tendency to sell
BYU currently has 5 players averaging double figures and a sixth in Richie Saunders at 9.9 points per game. A few caveats on this. Fouss is averaging 10.2 points per game this season, but I’m not sure he’ll play enough games to qualify as he recovers from a hamstring and knee injury. If he plays enough games, I think he will. The second wild card is Dawson Baker. He’ll likely be loosened up this month, which could limit his scoring initially, but he’s absolutely talented enough to average double figures.
The reason I’m leaning toward “sell” is because the Big 12 is a very good defensive conference. Jaxson Robinson and Spencer Johnson seem like safe bets to average double figures, and Trevin Knell is probably a safe bet as well. Noah Waterman and Dallin Hall will be close, but I don’t think Richie will average double figures.
The main reason why five guys could average over 10 points if Aly Khalifa. Khalifa’s shots and scoring will increase, but he will do most of his damage passing and will swallow fewer shots than Fouss.
Is Jaxson Robinson an All-Big 12 player?
Verdict: BUY
I love the story of Jaxson Robinson. Originally a member of the Class of 2021 where he was a top 50 recruit, Jaxson graduated a year early and committed to Texas A&M as part of the 2020 promotion at 17 years old. A&M didn’t work out, but Arkansas head coach Eric Musselman saw enough in Robinson to offer him a scholarship. Jaxson didn’t get much playing time there, and when he entered the transfer portal for the second time in 2022, his suitors cooled considerably. Outside of BYU, the only other schools he visited this cycle were Colorado State, Tulsa and Missouri State.
BYU is the full beneficiary of this patience and development. A fourth-year player now, Jaxson will only be 21 this season. He showed flashes of his elite shooting ability last year, and he’s putting that on full display this season along with better ball-handling, decision-making, and defense. Jaxson’s shot selection is better and he’s averaging 16.6 points per game while shooting at a 44% rate from three with plenty of volume.
If Jaxson continues to come off the bench, he will be a leading candidate for Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year. I also think he will be on one of the three Big 12 All-Conference teams that have 15 players.
Will Dawson Baker start when he returns?
Verdict: SELL
A healthy Dawson Baker is the most accomplished player on BYU’s roster and one of the best players. Dawson averaged double-digit points in all three seasons and was All-Big West last year averaging 15 points per game. He also played well against the top teams UC Irvine played. He scored 14 points against SDSU and 16 against Oregon last year. In his freshman year, he scored 17 points at USC. He recorded a career-high 33 points last season, which is more than anyone on BYU’s roster.
Dawson is absolutely talented to start, but I don’t think BYU is going to disrupt what’s happening right now. Dawson is primarily a two-guard, but he can also handle the ball and play a point guard role. Trey Stewart averages 15 minutes per game, and I think his minutes will be most directly impacted by Dawson. Spencer Johnson, Trevin Knell, Dallin Hall and even someone like Noah Waterman will all collectively likely see a slight drop in minutes and BYU is looking to integrate Dawson.
Dawson coming off the bench is a formidable weapon. He can score on a catch and create his own offense off the dribble. He is a competent three-point shooter and is probably BYU’s best mid-range shooter on the team. I think we might see Dawson again in the Utah game and I hope he fully qualifies for the Big 12 game. A bench unit led by Jaxson Robinson, Dawson Baker and Richie Saunders would be one of the best of the Big 12.
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