With the NBA All-Star break in the rearview mirror, the 2024 NBA draft cycle is now in full swing, which means large boards, mock drafts and scouting reports take center stage. The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie, who is as connected to the NBA as anyone, recently posted his post-All-Star mock draft, in which the San Antonio Spurs made two lottery selections at the 3rd and 7th spots in the General classification. Vecenie’s analysis and insights are both in-depth and trustworthy, meaning his ideas should be taken seriously by Spurs fans.
Here, the goal will be to grade each selection individually and take a moment to analyze the Spurs’ overall project in a more holistic sense. So, without further ado, here’s how we would rate Vecenie’s picks for the Spurs.
In a vacuum, Red Star Belgrade goalkeeper Nikola Topic is a very good player and deserves the top ten marks he has received from draft analysts over the last couple of months. He didn’t appear on many draft boards early in this year’s draft cycle, but after putting up 18.4 points, 7.1 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game during his streak 12 games with Mega Basket until the end of 2023, he quickly reached the top of the big boards and mock drafts.
As Vecenie says in his analysis, he brings exceptional playfulness, fits easily into the Adriatic League and is a savant as a playmaker in ball screens.
Even so, though, only exceeding the current sample size, the Spurs select him 3rd overall over names like Cody Williams, Ron Holland, and even Stephon Castle (all selected in the three picks immediately after San Antonio in Vecenie’s simulated project) would be difficult to digest. While it’s abundantly clear that the Spurs still need a long-term solution at point guard and Topic has the upside required to fill that role, it’s his potential downside that gives me considerable pause on this selection.
Topic’s shooting touch (~26% from three) and defense – both on and off the ball – are questionable at best, which is a generally concerning combination of deficiencies to have as an NBA point guard, even with good position size. While this might be easier to ignore for a team with a good shooting/scoring infrastructure, the Spurs are currently THE worst three-point shooting team in the league and ranks bottom 12 inside the arc.
Playing Topic, Sochan and Wembanyama together in a way that leads to winning basketball while prioritizing development would be an incredibly difficult ask for the Spurs coaching staff.
In this way, this selection would be a much more massive gamble for the Spurs than many think. While I think this type of upside bet is justified at this point in the team’s rebuild (especially if the Spurs have two lottery picks in the upcoming draft), there could be several smarter bets that can be made with such a high pick at draft time. day. If you believe in Topic’s best league finish, this is a solid pick. Otherwise, it could be a big failure.
