There are 11 undefeated college football teams in the Bowl Subdivision as the regular season passes the halfway point, down from the 22 teams that were still perfect before October. The number is decreasing every week; last Saturday I saw Ohio State loses for the first time in an epic Big Ten battle against Oregon.
What’s interesting is that of those 11 undefeated, only two are scheduled to play this season: Army and Navy in this annual rivalry, which will take place the Saturday after the release of the final rankings of the College Football Playoff.
That leaves the possibility of several undefeated teams, most in the Power Four, heading into conference championship weekend. Partly because of conference expansion, you could see undefeated teams meet in early December to decide the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten.
History tells us that won’t happen. Michigan, Washington State and Florida State were the only perfect teams before last year’s playoffs. In 2022, it was just the Wolverines and Georgia.
So look for the list of 11 teams to be reduced to full size in the coming weeks. Here’s where every team should see a perfect race end:
No. 1 Texas (6-0)
First defeat: Sometimes in the playoffs. (If at all.)
The only undefeated team in the SEC, Texas has often looked dominant as it rose to the top Tops U.S. LBM Coaches Poll. More recently, the Longhorns split Oklahoma in a 34-3 despite Quinn Ewers’ struggles to get back on track after missing two games with injury. The biggest test next comes in a Georgia team that hasn’t really bounced back from an earlier loss to Alabama. Texas is the favorite against the Bulldogsand for good reason.
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No. 2 Oregon (6-0)
First defeat: Big Ten championship game vs. Ohio State, Dec. 7.
It may be too early to book the two teams into a rematch in Indianapolis, especially since Ohio State is scheduled to get past Penn State on the road early next month. But after an exciting game last Saturday, the Ducks and Buckeyes must be favored to play again in less than two months with a first-round playoff bye on the line. This time, we’re betting Ohio State will make the most of this second chance.
No. 3 Penn State (6-0)
First defeat: against Ohio State on November 2.
That’s not to say the Nittany Lions won’t or can’t beat the Buckeyes. One reason for great optimism is the growth of an offense that is finding its stride under new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. But history can’t be ignored: Penn State has lost seven in a row in this series, three to State College, although more than half of those losses have been by single digits.
No. 6 Miami (6-0)
First defeat: at Georgia Tech on November 9.
Recent close games against Virginia Tech and California have raised doubts about Miami’s ability to run the table, even in a very manageable ACC schedule. On the other hand, these were close games that the program probably would have lost earlier under coach Mario Cristobal’s tenure, which has to mean something. Bet the Hurricanes will pass this Saturday’s test in Louisville and win against Duke and Florida State at home before dropping to a road trip to Georgia Tech next month. THE Yellow jackets won three of the five games in the series.
No. 12 Iowa State (6-0)
First defeat: against Texas Tech, November 2.
The schedule is unfolding in a way that Iowa State can be spotless heading into the finale against Kansas State in late November. The team’s weekly improvement and high ceiling make this a realistic scenario, especially since Iowa State is missing Brigham Young, Arizona State and Colorado. Instead, the second half schedule includes Central Florida, Texas Tech, Kansas, Cincinnati, Utah and the aforementioned K-State game. While admitting the possibility of an 11-0 start, let’s roll the dice for Cyclones losing at home to a Texas Tech team that has won four in a row after a slow start.
No. 13 Brigham Young (6-0)
First defeat: against Oklahoma State on Saturday.
BYU continues to go unnoticed despite very good victories against SMU and Kansas State. This race ends on Saturday. Oklahoma State has fallen off the map with three straight losses, but will rebound after an open week to launch another second-half push for Mike Gundy and the Cowboys.
No. 18 Indiana (6-0)
First defeat: against Nebraska on Saturday.
Indiana has been one of the Power Four’s great success stories under new coach Curt Cignetti. Nebraska presents a different test than the Hoosiers have faced thus far due to the Cornhuskers’ elite defense, which had a brief problem in the loss to Illinois but still ranks sixth nationally in yards allowed per play.
No. 20 Pittsburgh (6-0)
First defeat: against Syracuse on Saturday.
The Panthers probably should have lost at least twice by now – although some credit has to be given to a team that only won three times last year but found a way to go undefeated until mid -season. Kyle McCord and the Orange present a very tough test for a defense that ranks 101st nationally in passing yards allowed per game, although Pittsburgh is a slightly more impressive 62nd in yards allowed per attempt. Syracuse ranks second in the FBS in air yards per game and first by far with 47.8 throws per game.
Army No. 24 (6-0)
First defeat: in North Texas, November 9.
The fact that Army hasn’t played anyone of significance makes them a tough team to root for, although you have to admire the way the Black Knights dismantled teams like Rice, Temple and Alabama-Birmingham. Expect that trend to continue against two more overmatched opponents – East Carolina and Air Force – before North Texas’ high-powered offense proves too much to handle. The Mean Green is one of six teams in the FBS and only two in the Group of Five to average more than 500 offensive yards per game.
Liberty (5-0)
First defeat: against Jacksonville State on October 30.
Liberty’s unbeaten record could last until a home date against Western Kentucky on Nov. 23, or even into the playoffs. But the Flames could be trampled by a Jacksonville State team that has rebounded to win three straight, the last two in Conference USA. Those three wins came by a combined score of 161-44 and saw the Gamecocks run for a total of 991 yards with a remarkable 18 rushing scores.
Navy (5-0)
First defeat: against Notre Dame (in East Rutherford, NJ), October 26.
Unlike the Army, the Midshipmen have some national credibility due to a victory against Memphis on September 21. A strong run to open this season will continue with a win Saturday against Charlotte, but Navy will have to put up a herculean effort to upset Notre Dame. a week later on a neutral site.
This article was originally published on USA TODAY: College football: 11 remain undefeated. When will they lose first?
