The Orioles have answered a lot of questions this offseason. The question marks surrounding the offense were resolved via the signing of Pete Alonso and the trade for Taylor Ward. The starting pitch was addressed with Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt and the resignation of Zach Eflin. The bullpen added Ryan Helsley and brought back Andrew Kittredge.
But a gigantic question still hangs over the Orioles’ heads: Is Baltimore really a contender in 2026?
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After back-to-back playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, there was plenty of hope that the 2025 Orioles would be contenders again. Instead, a mountain of injuries and failed offseason gambles condemned the O’s to a 16-win regression and a last-place finish.
The Orioles undoubtedly had a better offseason this year. However, questions surrounding pitching and the growing number of new injuries are still there to cast doubt on the Orioles’ playoff hopes.
FanGraphs currently gives the Orioles a 51.6% chance of playing baseball in October, sixth best among all AL teams, but only 4th in a loaded AL East. FanDuel also gives the O’s the sixth-best odds of winning a playoff birth at -115, although the gap between them and the Red Sox (-170), Blue Jays (-172) and Yankees (-265) is perhaps considered even greater in the betting market.
The optimistic arguments about the Orioles’ chances of securing a Wildcard berth largely revolve around their offense. The additions of Alonso and Ward, and the predictable positive regression of Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, could see this O’s team battling for the MLB lead and the title of best offense in the AL. And that’s before you factor in the potential growth of young players like Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers.
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Pessimists will point to the lack of high-end starters, injuries to Holliday, Basallo and Jordan Westburg and the challenge that is the AL East as reasons why Baltimore will miss the playoffs again. The rotation is deeper, but relies heavily on healthy seasons from Bradish, Rogers and Baz to give Baltimore a prayer of keeping up with the deep rotations in New York, Toronto and Boston.
Injuries are frustrating but perhaps surmountable. The holidays should be back in April. Basallo hopefully won’t be pushed aside long after leave yesterday’s match after an awkward play at the plate. Westburg injury at UCL means he could miss the entire season, but a jump from Coby Mayo should mitigate that loss (at least offensively). And yet, having to deal with so many injuries before playing a single regular season game could certainly shake the optimism around an Orioles return to the postseason.
Playing in the AL East isn’t as daunting as it once was, thanks to fewer divisional games, but the O’s still face an uphill climb out of the basement of baseball’s toughest division. The flip side of the AL East challenge is that Baltimore will have plenty of opportunities to steal games from its biggest competitors in the Wild Card (or division) race.
Since moving to three Wild Card teams, the last Wild Card spot in the AL has averaged 87 wins. Most books have the Orioles plus/minus with 86 wins. Obviously, this should be a team that can participate in the playoffs. But do they have enough juice to really stand out as contenders? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
