There are three main reasons why Georgia could move ahead of Ohio State in the second College Football Playoff rankings of the season, which are scheduled to be released Tuesday night.
The first is Georgia wins 30-21 against Missouri, who was ranked No. 12 in the first ranking and will remain in the Top 25 despite the defeat. The Bulldogs now have four wins against SEC competition, which currently holds a winning record.
The second is Ohio State wins 35-16 at Rutgers. The Buckeyes led 9-7 at halftime and were in danger of falling behind by two possessions in the third quarter before a 93-yard interception return gave them the lead for good. While Rutgers is already bowl eligible and will likely finish fourth in the Big Ten East, the fact that Ohio State was losing before the second half could provide critics on the selection committee and outside with unnecessary ammunition.
And third, Notre Dame’s loss to Clemson partially devalues the Buckeyes’ non-conference win against the Fighting Irish. While this remains a Top 25 win in the eyes of the committee, this win no longer represents a one-time bonus on Ohio State’s postseason resume.
Here’s what the top 10 should look like Tuesday night:
1. Georgia (9-0)
In two games without tight end Brock Bowers, quarterback Carson Beck completed 40 of 60 throws for 569 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. It’s the defense that has struggled at times over the past two weeks, giving up a season-worst 5.9 yards per game against Florida and allowing Missouri to become just the fourth opponent since 2019 to run for more than 150 yards.
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2. Ohio State (9-0)
Slow starts similar to the one against Rutgers didn’t cost Ohio State, which continued to look sluggish out of the gate but outscored its opponents 155-48 in the second half. A year ago, the Buckeyes were trailing or tied four times at halftime and won every game.
3. Michigan (9-0)
The selection committee sent a very clear message about Michigan a week ago in calling the current sign-stealing problem an “NCAA problem,” not one for the playoffs. That means the committee will continue to place the Wolverines in the top four, barring any concrete developments in an investigation into the scandal. Look for Michigan to stay in third place after knocking out Purdue.
4. Florida State (9-0)
As with the relationship between the Buckeyes and the Irish, Florida State’s credentials will be affected by LSU’s loss to Alabama, the Tigers’ third this year. There will also be an argument for reversing Washington after its victory over Southern California, but how will the committee review that outcome?
5. Washington (9-0)
The committee questioned Washington’s credibility after unimpressive wins over Arizona State and Stanford. There doesn’t seem to be much from the win against USC that will change that. The Trojans’ defense was of course a nightmare, but the offense managed five touchdowns of at least 75 yards and gained 515 total yards on 8.2 yards per snap. Even though the Seminoles weren’t dominant in a 24-7 win over Pittsburgh, there doesn’t appear to be enough here for the Huskies to secure a top-four spot.
6. Oregon (8-1)
The list of one-loss teams shouldn’t change from a week ago until we get to Oklahoma, who will bounce back from No. 9 after losing to Oklahoma State. Trailing 14-10 after the first quarter against California, the Ducks cruised to a 63-19 victory thanks to six combined touchdowns from quarterback Bo Nix.
7.Texas (8-1)
The Longhorns overtime victory against Kansas State will draw praise from the committee even if it knocks the Wildcats out of the Top 25. The most impressive part was how Texas owned the line of scrimmage against one of the most physical teams in the Power Five, rushing for 230 yards and allowing just 33, the Wildcats’ fewest in a game since the 2015 Alamo Bowl.
8.Alabama (8-1)
Alabama continues to be crippled by the head-to-head home loss to Texas, which the committee will continue to honor through the end of November as long as both teams have the same record. But the Crimson Tide would edge out the Longhorns by winning in November and beating Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to finish 12-1.
9. Mississippi (8-1)
An earlier loss to Alabama cost Ole Miss the SEC West and any real playoff chance, but a win Saturday against Georgia would at least guarantee the Rebels a New Year’s bid for the second time under Lane Kiffin. (Assuming they take care of Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State.) Ole Miss is 10-32-1 against the Bulldogs but won the last game of this series (45-14 in 2016).
10. Pennsylvania State (8-1)
Oklahoma’s loss and a convincing win over Maryland will propel Penn State into the top 10. How high can the Nittany Lions climb? It all depends on Saturday’s game against Michigan and the results of the final two weeks of the regular season. Beating the Wolverines could put Penn State in the top seven of next Tuesday’s standings.
