• RB David Montgomery, Detroit Lions: over 48.5 yards rushing – We estimate, to some extent, how good the Bears’ run defense is, and we’re also buying low on Montgomery in just his second game back from injury.
• WR Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers: over 33.5 receiving yards – The Chargers were unable to defend slot receivers, allowing the highest completion rate, second-highest explosive reception rate, most yards per coverage target per full yard, highest pass rate, highest first down rate, and fifth highest EPA per target.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
We’re back with a two-pack of player accessories for Week 11. With a short lead time to a three-game slate on Thursday, tune in to the news PFF forecast and join the Printing Company Discord to stay up to date with our favorite bets.
Detroit Lions R.B. David Montgomery over 48.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
THE Chicago Bear‘ Run defense has been a topic of conversation recently, with the unit ranking second in the NFL in EPA per run allowed and run success rate allowed. While there are legitimate reasons for unit improvement – free agent additions at linebacker TJ Edwards and nose tackle Andrew Billingsmost advanced defender in commercial acquisition Sweatshirt Montez – there is another factor at play here.
Chicago’s last five opponents rank as follows in EPA per race on the season: 27th, 32nd, 19th, 18th and 20th. Earlier in the season, the Bears faced teams ranked 30th and 26th, with only one out of 10 opponents so far ranking in the top 10 in EPA by carry. We talk a lot about the fact that pass defense performance is largely a product of opposing quarterbacks being faced, and the same principle doesn’t apply as clearly here, but there’s a good chance Chicago won’t doesn’t magically have an elite run defense – more like an above-average defense. Good.
Another reason for Montgomery’s lower numbers here is the emergence of the Lions’ first-round running back. Jahmyr Gibbs, which achieved a more equal distribution of the workload. Gibbs had 14 carries in Week 10 to Montgomery’s 12, but Montgomery still exploded for 116 yards, which included a 75-yard touchdown run. A Chicago matchup scenario, with Detroit currently a 7.5-point favorite, could lead to Montgomery losing time in the second half against his former team, a club he left with composure after they failed to win. haven’t made much effort. to hold him.
Chicago will likely be without a linebacker Tremaine Edmunds in this game, and save Jack Sanborn is dealing with an illness that may impact his performance. We estimate, to some extent, how good the Bears’ run defense is, and we’re also buying low on Montgomery in just his second game back from injury.
Green Bay Packers W.R. Jayden Reed over 33.5 receiving yards (-115)
This number is higher than last month’s lines for Reed, but the upward adjustment isn’t enough given the opponent, with the move likely accounting for Reed having his two greatest performances of season-high yards over the past three weeks. but not to what extent Los Angeles Chargers have been against slot receivers.
The Chargers were unable to defend slot receivers throughout the season, allowing the highest completion rate, second highest explosive reception rate, most yards per coverage target per full yard, highest completion rate, highest first down rate, and fifth highest EPA per yard. target. No matter how you slice it, it’s beyond ugly.
Reed lines up in the slot on 77% of snaps and has the quarterback’s confidence Jordan Love from the start this season, achieving goals at all levels of the pitch. The Packers return Aaron Jones and wide receiver Christian Watson have been limited to testing all week, which could open up a few more opportunities. Finally, this game appears to have a higher pace and feature a game scenario that requires a Green Bay pass, giving us more volume to capitalize on.