NFL Talking Point: Is There a Home Field Advantage?

The idea of ​​“home-field advantage” is a long-held belief in sports. It’s a simple premise that the home team has a distinct advantage over its visiting opponent. This belief is so ingrained in sports culture that home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is considered as valuable as any other perceived advantage heading into the second season.

But how real is it? East Home advantage? Well, that depends.

In the NHL, the home team has a tangible advantage on faceoffs and line changes. In MLB, the home team also has a real advantage when the last player bats.

However, in the NFL, it’s understood that having the crowd on your side allows you to put pressure on your opponent in key moments and take the pressure off yours. Or, you have to deal with our drunken superfans, and we don’t have to deal with yours. There are other quirks like the wind on the lake, the unpredictable Chicago weather, and less travel that should give the The Chicago Bears an advantage over their visiting opponents.

All of this is just conjecture until we look at some numbers. So let’s look at the stats to see how local NFL teams have fared over the past five seasons:

That’s a total of 730 wins and 630 losses for the home team, making about 54% of home games wins. That should be enough to suggest that there is a home advantage, even if it’s not overwhelming. Another takeaway from the data that suggests there is a home advantage is the 2020 season.

Look closely at the numbers above: four of the last five seasons have the home team winning about 52-57% of the games played. However, the 2020 season shows a nearly 50/50 split between home and away team wins. Why is this important? This is the season where over 20 franchises made the decision to start their home openers without fans in attendance. For the franchises that did allow fans in attendance, it was in significantly reduced numbers, likely reducing “home-field advantage.”

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Could it be a coincidence that the unique 2020 season saw the lowest win rate for home teams? Certainly. However, my gut tells me that it’s likely that the absence of fans helped create a more neutral atmosphere.

Verdict? It seems there is a home advantage.

Now it’s your turn: do you think there is a home advantage? Let us know your thoughts!