Let me start by saying that I wrote a nearly complete article about Major League Baseball’s Opening Day, complete with photos and stories and… You’re going to have to wait for that, because as much as I tried to finish this article, as much as I wanted to write about a fantastic Opening Day experience in Cincinnati, Kentucky basketball dominates my thoughts. So here’s your preview of the NCAA men’s basketball national championship game from a UK fan, who is trying to be impartial but probably won’t be.
University of Kentucky vs. University of Connecticut, Wildcats vs. Huskies, Underclassmen vs. Upperclassmen, Size vs. Speed: However you want to charge for this game, it will exceed all the hype and expectations. Here’s why.
Let’s start with this, the last time UK lost in the NCAA tournament was to UConn in the 2011 national semifinals. Since then, Kentucky has won a national championship, failed to make the tournament, and (most recently) embarked on an incredibly improbable and seemingly doomed tournament run. Since then, UConn has won a national championship (defeating Butler in 2011), been placed on postseason probation for violating NCAA rules, changed coaches from legend Jim Calhoun to upstart (and former UConn star) Kevin Ollie, and has now also made a seemingly fatal return to the national title game. Kentucky beat three of last year’s Final Four teams, including previously undefeated Wichita State, in their run to this championship game. Connecticut beat tournament No. 1 seed Florida and many analysts on Team Darkhorse, perennial Michigan State power. Suffice it to say, both teams earned their place in this match by beating the best teams in the tournament.
These two teams are eerily similar in the way their seasons have gone. Both teams had high expectations going into the season and fell short in the eyes of many throughout the season. Both teams lost three times to one team, a very good team: Kentucky to Florida, which Connecticut beat in the Final Four; UConn at Louisville, which Kentucky beat in the Sweet Sixteen. They were both swept by a mediocre team that didn’t make the NCAA tournament; From Kentucky to Arkansas and from Connecticut to Southern Methodist. Both teams lost in the finals of their conference tournament and have since shocked the tournament field by progressing well beyond what their top seed predicted.
Despite all the comparisons about how their seasons went, the composition of these two teams could not be different. Kentucky’s backcourt, maligned for much of the season, has two big, methodical freshmen in the Harrison twins. It is undoubtedly the consistency of their play that has made the biggest difference in this Kentucky team. The consistency of UConn’s guards was never in doubt, as senior Shabazz Napier (Player of the Year candidate) and junior Ryan Boatright combined for a season average of 30 points and 9 assists per game. Both have the ability to take control of a game, and both can score the point, freeing the other to score. They are small, fast and arguably the best backcourt in the country this year. The matchup here is interesting because you have short, quick players with the ability to score against long, physical players with the ability to score. The key here will be who takes care of the ball. Despite shooting guard Aaron Harrison’s wins in the last three games, I give the overall edge in guard play to the Huskies. Look for Dominique Hawkins to play big minutes if Napier’s speed creates problems for the Harrisons. Smaller, quicker guards have been Kentucky’s kryptonite for much of the season, but after facing Fred Van Vleet (Wichita State), Russ Smith (Louisville) and Big 10 Player of the Year Nik Stauskas (Michigan), UK’s defense has proven that its size can pose problems for smaller guards even if they give up speed.
In the frontcourt, Kentucky is dominant, as it showed against Wisconsin all season. Defensively, it’s a different team without an injured Willie Cauley-Stein to block shots, but they still have big guys with major athleticism in Julius Randle, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee and Alex Poythress who have all played very well down low in WCS’s absence. Kentucky’s average rebound margin is +9.0 throughout this tournament. DeAndre Daniels is an interior pressure for the Huskies, but hasn’t faced a frontcourt with Kentucky’s power, size and depth. Florida, for example, has some good bigs, but when Patrick Young comes out, they drop off considerably. Kentucky doesn’t lose much by bringing people off the bench; in fact, you could say they become more dynamic the deeper they go. Poythress and Lee can both jump out of the gym, while Randle and Johnson intimidate teams inside. All four can rebound and defend good bigmen, as we saw at Wisconsin State, Louisville State and Wichita State.
With the exception of its opening game against Kansas State, UK has led very few times throughout the tournament, but it has yet to lose when the scoreboard read 0.0. This team doesn’t know how to do it and is frankly uncomfortable when it leads, especially by more than five points. Something about tight game situations, something about pressure forcing this team to play to their potential. (A potential that has them dubbed preseason #1, I might add.) I think they will have to play with it and hold a lead to win this game, as the Huskies have shown the ability to hold leads against very good teams.
Because of their ability to play teams of all different styles – slowing down and working in the half court or running the court and scoring points – my final assessment is that UK will win this game, capturing its ninth national championship and third in a row for the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Connecticut hasn’t seen a team as long and athletic as the Wildcats that can also score at all positions and in a variety of ways. The Cats will win their 12th straight NCAA Tournament game since losing to UConn in 2011, silencing the haters and setting the couches on fire in Lexington.
Enjoy this video of Kentucy fans reacting to Aaron Harrison’s game-winning shot Saturday night.
