Yes, this title is correct. Northwestern, which in preseason was projected to be one of the conference’s bottom players, is 90 minutes away from securing at least a share of the Big Ten regular-season title.
Currently, the Wildcats sit in first place with Penn State and Michigan State – all with 13 points. However, the Spartans have played all eight conference games, while NU and PSU have one game remaining. Indiana, 11 points, and Rutgers, 10 points — who play each other Sunday — both have an outside chance of finishing first, but will need a little help (as well as a win).
Fortunately, the math is pretty simple for Payne and co. To win the title and claim the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tournament, they need a better result in Michigan than the Nittany Lions got in Wisconsin. Match Penn State’s result and they’ll get a share, but PSU’s 2-1 win over the ‘Cats would give it the top seed in the tournament.
There are some caveats to this, especially when it comes to ranking with three-way ties, which, truth be told, I have no idea how those are broken, but a win in Ann Arbor for NU makes them all in vain.
From a Wildcat perspective, it’s obviously nice to worry about the math at this end of the standings. After the last two years required victories on the final day of the season to avoid finishing last and qualifying for the Big Ten Tournament, the stakes are still high, but for very different reasons. That, in itself, is a testament to how far this program has come in three seasons under Payne, and getting a tangible reward for that development would be an ideal way to send the ‘Cats to the postseason.
Northwest 1 (Achara 52′), Michigan State 2 (Kerrigan 32′ (p), Ludwig 42′)
Friday, October 20 (Evanston, Illinois)
In the toughest test of the season thus far for the ‘Cats (if the NCAA’s RPI rankings are to be believed), everything that could have gone wrong did. My entirely rational theory is that NU contracted bad karma after honoring the seniors at a time other than right before the last home game of the year.
All jokes aside, Michigan State was just an extremely strong traditional 4-4-2 team. After the game, Payne described the Spartans as “committed,” and that was, to me, an apt label. Each player works for their 10 teammates on the field and they stick to their strategy, executing it at a high level, even if it’s not particularly complex or revolutionary.
The ‘Cats’ ability to cope with MSU’s quality certainly wasn’t helped by Justin Weiss being forced to retire midway through the first half after suffering an apparent hamstring injury. Leggings. He was going to try his luck in the second half, but after about 10 minutes it was obvious he couldn’t continue. In that stretch between Weiss’ initial injury and halftime, the Wildcats’ offense looked the worst it had been all year. Coupled with the fact that Michigan State scored two cheap goals in that span – the first resulting from a questionable handball call in the box and the second from a complete defensive snafu – things couldn’t have looked darker for Northwestern at the break.
However, NU had not yet given up on the game, and a slight change in possession structure revitalized what had been a lifeless attack. Instead of the standard 3-2-1-4 with an AM behind two attackers, the Cats came out in a 3-2-5 with three attackers – Ugo Achara in the middle with Christopher Thaggard to his right and Paul Son to his right. LEFT.
In post-match interviews throughout the year, Payne emphasized his belief in the importance of being a team capable of playing both in front of and above the opposition’s back line, and a similar explanation followed when asked about this change. He said his team had not been threatening enough in the first half and the change in shape was aimed at solving that problem.
In practice, these front three were able to pin Michigan State’s backline deeper, opening up space between the two banks of four in MSU’s 4-4-2 – unpacking the block – only to be exploited on the finishes. The clip below illustrates this idea well, with Northwestern’s 3+2 first manipulating the Spartan press to access Son’s last-line drop in the left half-space, then the junior forward looking to stretch the back line.
Son has done a phenomenal job in his role within this new structure, as has his right-wing counterpart. Here, after the arrival of Fritz Volmar in the left half-space (rotation of position between him and Son), Thaggard makes a large lateral movement between the lines to receive before a labyrinthine run opens up an opportunity to cross on left.
Regarding Volmar, who was recently ranked No. 7 in TopDrawerSoccer’s Top 100 Freshmen rankings, the clip below is a wonderful example of the dynamism he adds to NU’s offense, as well as the power the ‘Cats showed early in the season. second period. A brilliant carry and run coupled with a fine pass from Jason Gajadhar allows him to score cleanly, but he just can’t finish.
After numerous equalizing chances from the Wildcats, the Spartans moved to a 4-5-1 with 20 minutes remaining and set their faceoff line lower, limiting Northwestern’s ability to access the middle of the field. As a result, NU struggled to create much outside of set pieces and hopeful crosses, and were unable to complete their comeback.
Northwest 1 (Prince 25′), Indiana 0
Tuesday, October 24 (Evanston, Illinois)
While there were many interesting aspects to Northwestern’s game against Michigan State, its next game against Indiana was quite the opposite. And honestly, the less said about this one, the better.
I generally don’t like to rely on box score stats to tell the story of a game because they lack a lot of context, but the Hoosiers recording 21 shots to NU’s four does a good job of narrowing down this contest to a single digit. However, the fact that Jackson Weyman only needed to save three of those 21 attempts to keep his clean sheet also speaks volumes.
Regardless, Indiana controlled the game throughout the game, and a Nigel Prince goal in the 25th minute off a long Reese Mayer throw (which may or may not have been a foul throw) was the classic definition of “against the run of play”. » The Hoosiers’ dominance only grew in the second half, and Payne finally responded to NU’s one-way traffic toward the goal by switching to a 5-4-1 from the 4-4-2 block with which he started the match. .
Ultimately, the concession of territory and the ball combined with a few well-timed blocks prevented the Crimson Tide from entering Weyman’s goal and as a result, the ‘Cats picked up three crucial points in their quest for their first Big Ten title since. 2012.
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