Is the US Open field the weakest in recent Grand Slam tennis history?

After a pandemic shut down play in March, the strangest tennis season in memory is in full swing with the US Open, which begins tomorrow.

Well, it’s kind of a full beat.

The New York major, usually the final of the four major tournaments of the tennis year, is the second of three Grand Slams in 2020. Almost as notable as those who will be there are those who won’t, with dozens of talented men and women staying home.

The 2020 US Open will mark the first Grand Slam tournament without Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal since the 1999 US Open. Since 2000, Nadal and Federer have won 39 Grand Slam titles together out of a possible 81.

But it was the women’s team that saw more quality players drop out, and the field opened up more than ever before.

So how might the US Open play out and who are the players to watch?

Is the draw open for Serena?

The withdrawals were almost as hard and fast as the confirmations, with the withdrawal of the two best players on the WTA circuit (including Australian Ash Barty) and reigning champion Bianca Andreescu.

So far, 29 players have withdrawn, including to replace other withdrawn players. Fourteen female seeds will be missing – the largest number in the last 30 years.

Arguably the biggest beneficiary of the mass absences from the women’s side of the draw is Serena Williams, who is still seeking her record-equalling 24th Grand Slam singles title. Arriving in New York ranked ninth, the withdrawals of the players above propelled her into the third seed and a much more favorable draw.

Naomi Osaka has the same chance, moving from 10th to fourth seed. However, his participation is in doubt due to a hamstring injury at the Western & Southern Open last week.

If both play, they will avoid seeing a top-eight player until the quarterfinals – if they make it that far. Williams’ form has been patchy since tennis resumed, with defeats to Shelby Rogers and Maria Sakkari last month. But she has always risen for big tournaments and is still capable of wowing any opponent of her era.

Although her power has declined slightly in recent years, Williams’ serve still dominates the game.

With the world’s two best players and the reigning tournament champion withdrawing, the potential for a surprise winner is greater than ever. This year’s Australian Open winner Sofia Kenin was arguably the in-form player at this year’s World Team Tennis competition during the shutdown, and could be the favorite, despite her early loss to Alize Cornet last week.

Elsewhere, second seed Karolina Pliskova’s only Grand Slam final came in New York, while Petra Kvitova, Garbine Muguruza and Angelique Kerber all recorded victories at Grand Slam level.

But perhaps the biggest draw will be young Coco Gauff, who played some of the most electrifying tennis of the last two years despite being just 16 years old.

Ajla Tomljanovic is shaping up to be Australia’s most likely prospect, even with a tough draw against Kerber in the first round.

Can anyone stop Djokovic?

Despite hosting perhaps the most disastrous tennis event in recent memory – the Adria Tour – and contracting COVID-19 during tennis’ longest break, Novak Djokovic lines up as the heavy favorite to win his 18th Grand Slam title.

So far, 14 players have withdrawn from the tournament, the largest number since Roland-Garros 2018. It is rare to see so many players withdraw, but especially so many stars.

One of the main reasons why more and more top players are choosing not to play has to do with the financial structures of professional tennis. With tennis awards heavily skewed toward rewarding top players — stars and players with longer professional tenures — have more flexibility to take a financial hit.

After winning the first major tournament since the resumption (the Western and the Southern Open), Djokovic has so far dispelled any doubts about the negative effects of the COVID-19 resumption.

Unlike many other top players, who often take quick, cheap points on serve to maintain an advantage, Djokovic excels at winning longer points.

According to Jeff Sackman’s Match Charting Project, Djokovic sported one of the most powerful forehands in the game – either finishing off points or setting up the kill.

Although his greatest weapon has historically been his forehand, over the past 12 months he has improved his backhand to match.

The biggest threat to Djokovic’s run to the final could come from young Austrian and fellow Adria Tour veteran Domenic Thiem. Djokovic met Thiem in this year’s Australian Open final and claimed an extremely close five-set victory. But in their recent meetings, Thiem is one of the few players to have the upper hand over Djokovic.

Thiem is ready to deploy the backhand slice to reduce the pace of points and improve his positioning.

With two of the big three absent, many youngsters such as Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, Denis Shapovalov, Felix Auger Aliassime and Australian Alex De Minaur are lining up to make their mark. For veterans like David Goffin and Grigor Dimitrov, the US Open may represent their best chance to finally win a grand slam gong.

But whoever wins, on both sides, will still have to beat seven players along the way.

This part hasn’t gotten any easier and the winner will always be worthy of it.