The Athletic provides live coverage of Iowa vs South Carolina in women national championship match.
Friday night’s second game of the Women’s Final Four will pit two of the sport’s biggest stars against each other: Caitlin Clark and the The Iowa Hawkeyes against Paige Bueckers and the University of Connecticut Huskies. The match promises to be exceptional. Iowa is a narrow favorite, and our model projects this matchup as an even contest. Even the name — Hawk Eyes against. Huskies — that sounds pretty good.
Geno Auriemma may have been a little tongue-in-cheek when he said, “Forget that I said Paige was the best player in the country, I think (Caitlin Clark) is the best player of all time.” But it speaks volumes about the magnitude of this matchup. Clark’s latest outing — the “rematch” against Louisiana State University — was the most-watched women’s basketball game of all time. Now she and the Hawkeyes will see if they can advance to their second-ever Finals, back-to-back years. In the meantime, University of Connecticut will attempt to make his 12th appearance in the final and his first since 2022.
We have the analysis for you from a betting perspective: analysis of our women’s college basketball team, final score predictions, key players and how to watch the game.
Get excited, the countdown has begun.
From our Final Four Preview:
Clark’s first NCAA Tournament appearance ended in a loss to Bueckers and University of Connecticut in the Sweet 16. It’s fitting that her college career includes a rematch with her former 2020 recruit. They were Team USA teammates and each won national player of the year honors (Bueckers as a freshman, Clark as a junior). And both are chasing a national championship.
It’s hard to think of the Huskies vs. Hawkeyes without starting with Bueckers vs. Clark, given their individual dominance and how their careers have intertwined. Colorado and LSU had no answer for Clark, who scored 70 points and 27 assists in a pair of regional victories. However, the Huskies have bigger defenders on the perimeter, starting with Nika Mühlwho took up the challenge of defending JuJu Watkins; Bueckers can also take this game if necessary. The problem with UConn’s defense is that it focuses on protecting the paint, and the Huskies give up a lot of three-point shots. That’s untenable against Iowa, and not just because of Clark. Every rotation player other than Kylie Feuerbach shoot at least 36 percent from three-point range and they get them.
After seeing Clark’s stats against the Tigers, Geno Auriemma joked, “I hope Caitlin Clark had a personal goal against LSU. I know it’s nothing personal between her and me. I don’t need to see her score 50 points against us next weekend, you know?” (Of course, it may already be personal for Clark, who told ESPN she wanted to be recruited by UConn but never got a call.)
Assuming Clark gets his, the onus falls on Bueckers tied her production. The UConn senior has never been as prolific as Clark, but she has averaged nearly 28 points since the start of the conference tournament. Bueckers has risen to the occasion in March, and her teammates have done enough to complement her to help the Huskies advance this far. Aaliyah Edwards it will be a burden for Hannah StuelkeThe rest of UConn’s rotation will have to make quick decisions with the ball; either take the catch or move away from it so Bueckers and Edwards can continue to bend the defense.
Iowa and UConn both ranked among the top five offenses in the regular season, according to Her Hoop Stats, so this should be a fun game. The Huskies have a better defense on paper, but nothing beats Clark’s defense. The way she’s playing, it’s hard to bet against her finishing her college career in memorable fashion.
—Grace Raynor and Sabreena Merchant
The key to Ben Pickman’s game:
When UConn and Iowa met in the 2021 NCAA Tournament, neither Clark nor Bueckers were the game’s leading scorers. A lot has changed since then. Still, the players around each team’s star point guard will be the difference-makers in the Final Four. Iowa isn’t afraid to mix up defensive looks; Addison O’Grady And Sydney Affolter have played a key role in the tournament. UConn has proven it can play a variety of styles — winning games in Portland after scoring 80 and 53 points, respectively, despite only having six or seven players. I wonder if the Huskies’ lack of depth is ultimately affecting them. Foul-calling could be an issue. They’ve improved since the regular season, but UConn has struggled against top-tier opponents, losing to UCLA, Texas, South CarolinaState of North Carolina and Our Ladyas the Huskies failed to adequately contain the top guards. Picks: Iowa 82, UConn 74
How to watch Iowa vs. UConn
What: Final four
Kick-off time: 9:30 p.m. ET Friday
TV: ESPN
Location: Cleveland
You can buy tickets for any tournament match here.
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Iowa vs UConn Odds
The chances are BetMGM and update live.
Experts’ Choice
Get these experts’ predictions for the Iowa vs. UConn final score.
Iowa vs. UConn Score Projection
Austin Mock Screening: Austin Mock, our “numbers guy,” uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project each team’s chances of advancing through each round of the tournament. Based on a million simulations of the 2024 NCAA women’s tournament, here’s our projected score:
- Projected Point Spread: Iowa PK*
- Projected total: 161.5 points
- Projected score: Iowa 80.8, UConn 80.8
*“PK” means a “pick’em”, where the teams are considered tied. Learn about the term “pick’em” in sports betting.
Players to watch
Iowa
- Caitlin Clark, senior guard, Big Ten Player of the Year, first team All-Big Ten
- Hannah Stuelke, sophomore forward, second team All-Big Ten
- Kate Martinsenior guard, second team All-Big Ten
University of Connecticut
- Paige Bueckersjunior guard, Big East Player of the Year, first-team All-Big East
- Ashlynn’s ShadowFreshman guard, Big East Rookie of the Year
- Aaliyah EdwardsSenior forward, first-team All-Big East
- Nika Muhl, senior guard, second team All-Big East
More NCAA Basketball Tournament Coverage
(Photo by Caitlin Clark: David Berding/Getty Images)
