Denny Hamlin suffered a heartbreaking defeat in the NASCAR Cup Series championship race at Phoenix last season, seeing the elusive title slip through his fingers in overtime. With the Chase format returning in 2026, Hamlin offers an early prediction on who will be the NASCAR champion this season.
In this week’s episode Harmful actionsHamlin expressed approval of the new 10-race Chase playoff format. While he believes it will likely determine which drivers are best positioned to win the Cup Series title, he believes it should happen.
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“I’m very confident in this, here’s my prediction for the year. Whoever the champion is, they will finish in the top 3 in the regular season. The champion will be in the top 3.”
Denny Hamlin explains who will be the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series champion
The future Hall of Famer has been campaigning for changes to the playoff format for years. Finally, NASCAR announced in January its return to the 10-race Chase championship format for the 2026 season. It came with several adjustments that Denny Hamlin is a fan of.
First, the winner of the race receives 55 points. This is an increase of 15 points from the previous points system and gives the driver who reaches victory lane a significant points gain over the one who finishes second. This still incentivizes winning without rewarding a playoff spot to a driver under the win-and-in format.
Related: Winners, losers of the new NASCAR championship format
Another key change to the format is the points reset at the start of the 10-race chase for all 16 drivers. The regular season champion enjoys a significant advantage, starting the Chase with 2,100 points, while the second seed starts with 2,075 points and the third seed starts with 2,065 points. There is then a drop of five points for each seed.
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Hamlin acknowledges that with the new system, there is a real chance that a NASCAR champion will be decided before the final race at Homestead-Miami. However, as he points out, this would mean that a driver performed so well during the Chase that he was the undisputed champion of the sport that season.
“They’re going to give the regular season champion a head start, like they should. He deserved it, whoever it was, they deserved it. If they clinch a week early, they deserved it, leave them alone. If you clinch after nine races of a 10-race playoff, you’re the best.”
Denny Hamlin on NASCAR’s 10-race Chase championship format
In reality, we’ll head into the final race of the season at Homestead-Miami on Nov. 8 with three or possibly four drivers within reach in terms of championship points. Unlikely under the old format, each of these drivers will have deserved it both thanks to their performances throughout the regular season and their consistency throughout the first nine races of The Chase.
Related: 2026 NASCAR predictions, projecting 16 drivers into the playoffs
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