The NFL playoffs are here. As always, I will endeavor to provide betting tips and picks for the week ahead that will gain closing line value between now and kickoff.
But I also like to start with a little tip: It’s not because the game matters more to the teams and players than it does to your bankroll. In fact, I almost prefer to go in the opposite direction and bet less in the playoffs. Now that we’ve reached the playoffs, much of the uncertainty that the regular season market attempts to price in — and that smart bettors are able to exploit — no longer exists. We have data from a sample of 17 games to accurately predict a large spread and total. The injury news has fewer unknowns throughout the week. There are fewer prize lines for sports betting. This of course applies to major markets like spreads and totals, but also extends to all derivative player props that can be wagered. With more certainty in each game and fewer prize lines, the lines are much cleaner.
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As betting margins decrease, the bet size should ideally decrease. Our “Super Bowl” bet can be a random game in Week 7. It doesn’t literally have to be the actual Super Bowl. Here are two best bets for the NFL wild-card round:
Is it finally time for Josh Allen to make the playoffs?
(Timothy T Ludwig via Getty Images)
Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 52.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Josh Allen gets a run at the AFC playoffs without Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow in his way. The challenge is facing a Jaguars team that plays bright football on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars have won eight straight games and secured the AFC South with a 13-4 record.
The starting point for my handicapping is always to use NFL market ratings. For the playoffs, I’m more reliant on post-week 17 data than post-week 18 information. Market ratings are created via an unbiased formula to compare final lines across the league, while weighting more recent games more. While there are flaws in this approach that are worth considering, market valuations are a great starting point for understanding price differentials for NFL games. The reason to avoid using data from Week 18 is that many key players around the league missed the week (including on the Bills) and therefore the data is confusing. It is important to keep an updated copy of the market notes each week so that you can return to them and refer to them. Using this approach, Buffalo is 1.2 points better than Jacksonville. But we have to account for the Jags’ home-court advantage, which is typically worth 1.5 points, which essentially brings us to a pick gap.
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The next handicapping factor is match specific. Market ratings allow us to evaluate two teams, but negate the on-field intricacies that create distractions from the overall numbers. In this case, I think the matchup clearly favors Buffalo. The Bills’ strength is a dual-threat running game. The Bills play a lot of multi-TE sets, but have tight ends who are capable blockers and pass catchers downfield, creating another dual-threat look. They can generate explosive plays on long runs and play-action passes, and have a very smart QB in Josh Allen to identify weaknesses.
On the other side, Jacksonville has been very impressive in the passing game. Since acquiring WR Jakobi Meyers via a midseason trade and returning TE Brenton Strange from injured reserve, the Jags’ offense has taken off. The Jaguars have averaged 32.9 points per game since Meyers’ arrival, up from 20.4 earlier in the season. Over the last six games, Trevor Lawrence threw for almost 1,600 yards with a TD/INT ratio of 15:1. He was playing at an MVP level. Passing against Buffalo is where things get tough for Jacksonville. The Bills allow the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL at 156.9 yards per game. In 10 of the Bills’ 17 games, the opposing net passing yards were below 100. In nine of the games, the opposing QB’s rating was below 72.
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Constant disruptions, tight coverage and the pressure of a strong Bills secondary are where Jacksonville is really losing its recent edge.
Therefore, I’m looking to back the Buffalo Bills here – and early market signals are consistent. Right now the consensus line is -1.5 (-110), but the ML at -120 represents the best value at MGM, since the move in and out of the 1 is about 6-7 cents in NFL betting, and so the ML should be around -123. This one opened at -115 and saw light action on the Bills side. I also remember a recent game against New England where the Bills made some clear moves late in the game, so I think that could come here as well.
Bet: Buffalo Bills ML (-120), up to 1 unit
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 45)
Wondering where the intense action has been so far in early playoff betting? Look no further than this match. There were two very clear moves here: towards the Eagles and towards the Under. The Eagles opened as 2.5 or 3 point favorites as the consensus price which is now -4.5 for the Eagles. Considering the removal of the 3, this is a huge change in value.
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The total fell from 46.5 to 45, with 44.5s also emerging on the market. I’m not going to run out and bet on the Eagles here, having missed the value. It’s a basic principle for me to stay away at this point. However, the total drop from 46.5 to 45 is a move that I will treat as a data point, showing that the sharp side is the underside.
For NFL totals, understanding the key numbers is essential. The opening line up to the 46 isn’t too significant, as 46 is the 17th most common finish in the NFL over the past four seasons. Forty-five is also the 15th most common result, but 44 and 43 are both in the top five. Seeing signals that it could go down to 44.5 means I definitely want to get in before 44s show up.
The reason to bet on the under here is that these are two high-scoring offenses. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley are two household names, and both are offensive focal points. Since the 49ers lost key players on defense like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, teams have exploited their front seven and focused on the rushing attack, while the 49ers have implemented slow, methodical attacks on offense. The Eagles also have the sixth-best defense based on DVOA and allow the fifth-fewest points.
Bet: Under 45 (-110), up to 0.75 units
