Mark Pope compared this Kentucky basketball team on a Ferrari in October.
Fast forward to January, and Ferrari is sitting on blocks in the garage after suffering a Quad III (now Quad II) loss to Missouri in its home opener, where it had an eight-point lead with less than five minutes remaining.
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Expensive and lots of power, but doesn’t go anywhere.
That said, the Wildcats don’t have the luxury of regrouping as they look to avoid their first 0-3 start in the SEC since 1975-76 when Mississippi State visits Rupp Arena on Saturday night.
Led by fourth-year head coach Chris Jans, the Bulldogs were just 8-5 in non-conference play, but got off to a 2-0 start in the SEC. That most recently includes a 19-point win over Oklahoma on Wednesday.
Kentucky has beaten Mississippi State in 20 of the last 21 meetings, including five in a row. However, the teams have competed very closely in recent seasons, with six of the last seven games decided by five points or less or in overtime.
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It’s a must-win for Kentucky on Saturday, for the team’s morale, the fan base and, right now, the hope of making the NCAA Tournament. With Mississippi State ranked as a quad three opponent, the Wildcats don’t have the wins to protect against bad losses.
Let’s take a look at the match.
Pick up the pace
After the loss to Missouri, Mark Pope made it clear that much of Kentucky’s offensive struggles could be attributed to a lack of pace. The opposite of Pope’s offensive philosophy.
I’m really frustrated with our pace and our movements. I’m just really frustrated,” Pope said. “We stress every day about sprinting to screens, sprinting to screens, sprinting to screens, and it’s like we’re in molasses. We try to simplify and lighten things.
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“I’m disappointed in the pace, and I’m disappointed in our push to a second team. I’m disappointed in our physicality. When we do, when we turn the corner on some of these things, we’ll be good, but we won’t be good on the offensive end until we find some rhythm. We’re just not.”
Too often the ball lacks movement and urgency on the field. Players sit on the outside of the perimeter, moving back and forth without intention until the shot clock forces them to make a less-than-ideal shot.
Kentucky’s offense needs to play with intent. Players must engage with each screen and each montage, and most importantly, commit to their role. It should start on Saturday. These things can help with pacing.
From defense to offense
One area Kentucky has excelled in this season is its transition offense. They’ve been able to do that with bounce passes, but they’ve been at their best when generating turnovers.
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Kentucky has managed to force its opponents into double-digit turnovers in five of its last six games, averaging nearly 20 turnover points.
Mississippi State is averaging more than 11 turnovers per game, and given that this is the one area where Kentucky’s offense has been consistent, the Wildcats need to take advantage of every one of them.
Bounce
After being physically outplayed by Alabama, Kentucky responded much better in this aspect against Missouri for the most part, especially on the glass (until the last square removed) and defensively. That will have to continue as Mississippi State ranks in the top 20 nationally in rebounding.
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That said, they give up more than 10 offensive rebounds per game to their opponents. This means that Kentucky will have the opportunity to get extra possessions, provided they are the more physical team.
Players to watch
G Josh Hubbard 6-0, 190 lbs
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23.0 PPG (T-4th nationally)
G Jayden Epps 6’2, 190 lbs
G Shawn Jones Jr 6-6, 205 lbs
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Time: 8:30 p.m. ET January 10, 2026
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Location: Rupp Arena at the Central Bank Center in Lexington, Kentucky
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Advertisers: Matt Schumacker, Richard Hendrix
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Replay: WatchESPN and the ESPN Network (check local listings)
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Odds: FanDuel Sports Betting hasn’t released the odds for this game yet, so check back later to find out what they are. As far as metrics go, they all favor Kentucky by a substantial amount. Bart Torvik is highest among the Cats at 82%, followed closely by ESPN (79.7%) and KenPom (79%). EvanMiya rounds it off by giving Kentucky a 75.9% chance of winning.
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Predictions: Haslametry is the only metric for picking Kentucky to win by a double-digit margin, 78-66. Bart Torvik the Wildcats win 79-70, followed closely by EvanMiya (81-73) and KenPom (79-71), which made them win by eight. I’m leaving with an 80-75 victory, Kentucky!
Send us your predictions in the comments!
