Bill ConnellyESPN Editor2 minute read
Some had to work a lot harder than others, but as has been the case for most of the season, the big favorites all survived a shaky Week 11. Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama all won by four to five touchdowns. Michigan, Florida State, Oregon and Texas all fended off late comeback attempts with varying degrees of success. Washington trailed Utah at halftime but rallied to win, just as Louisville did Thursday night after starting the fourth quarter trailing Virginia.
We continue to navigate what should be a fascinating final two weeks of the regular season, and we continue to do so with the fewest title-related upsets and surprises. But there are always surprises elsewhere, and not just like “Jimbo Fisher gets fired right after winning a match by 41.” Last Saturday, Missouri and UCF plowed through Tennessee and Oklahoma State respectively with unexpected ease, Texas Tech upset Kansas and Iowa scored 22 points!
As we prepare for the season finale, let’s take a look at a few other surprises. Who has defied expectations the most this season? Who has progressed or regressed the most?
Let’s talk about surprises.
Access a section:
The biggest surprises
The biggest disappointments
Most Improved
Most regressions
Conference title odds
What the CFP should look like
Heisman of the week
Favorite games of the week
Largest increase in projected winning total
Despite all the roster turnover and effects of the transfer portal, the SP+ preseason projections seemed to do a pretty good job of properly setting expectations for most FBS teams. About two-thirds of the 133 teams currently have a projected win total within 1.5 games of their August start, and expectations for teams such as Notre Dame (8.8 projected wins in preseason, 8. 9 now) and Penn State (9.6 then, 9.8 now) have barely moved a millimeter.
There were, however, some pretty significant puffs. It wouldn’t be fun if there wasn’t any. Let’s take a look at some of the country’s most pleasant surprises, starting with the power conferences.
