This is a significant milestone, being about a quarter of the way through the fantasy football season. Many of us use this brand as a confidence test: which offenses are really good, which defenses can be exploited, and which fantasy products are the real deal? It’s a great time for a little reflection on the current fantasy landscape.
Many of us don’t seem to have much to think about – our list is just a trail of little red O’s. Additionally, some of us have difficulty thinking without emotion. We relate to our draft picks in a very personal way; every touchdown or 40-yard run is validation, while every drop or overthrown bomb pass is a mix of anger and shame. Weekly ups and downs can drive us almost as crazy as constant disappointments.
To move forward effectively, it’s important to put emotion aside, ignore draft capital or ADP and simply evaluate the players you have on your roster or could get via trade or waivers.
In this edition of Fact or Fluke, I’ll reflect on players drafted in the first six rounds who are performing contrary to expectations, whether overall or in Week 4 specifically. We’ll decide who will start each week no matter what and who will be a matchup-based game (with a particular focus on the Week 5 game) to give you the most actionable information.
Quarterbacks
Through four weeks, the top seven QBs of the season are Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and Justin Fields. Meanwhile, some star QBs have disappointed due to injuries around them or their own inherent struggles: Patrick Mahomes (QB15), CJ Stroud (QB12), and Trevor Lawrence (QB22) haven’t been up to par. their expectations going into the draft, while Anthony Richardson (QB20) started the season strong, but has since posted a string of fantastic single-digit outings. His Week 4 injury, a hip indicator, won’t keep him sidelined as long as some initially feared.
Patrick Mahomes was the highest drafted among those quarterbacks who failed their managers. Losing Isaiah Pacheco, Hollywood Brown and now Rashee Rice hasn’t been great for Mahomes, who continues to find ways to win games anyway. He gets a tough Week 5 matchup with New Orleans, whose defense, while allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game, ranks among the best defenses in scoring (and QB fantasy points) allowed and the best in touchdown passes allowed.
There’s a reason a player of Mahomes’ caliber has some wiggle room in fantasy advice articles, but I wouldn’t hesitate to bench him for Jordan Love or Brock Purdy in Week 5 depending on the numbers and the clashes. If you have Fields or Daniels, you obviously start one against Mahomes this weekend.
CJ Stroud had his best game of the season in the Week 4 win over Jacksonville, with 345 passing yards and two scores. His results in Weeks 2 and 3 were frustrating, but at least he’s performing in good matchups. Buffalo in Week 5 should be fun to watch, but might not produce any fantastic fireworks for Stroud given that Buffalo is an above average defense in terms of points allowed, passing yards allowed and of fantasy points for QBs allowed.
Trevor Laurent has a chance to bounce back in Week 5 given the Jaguars are facing the No. 2 defense in fantasy points allowed to QBs. No. 1 is Jacksonville itself, so we’re all hoping Richardson is back in action. Otherwise, Joe Flacco is a good start in what should be a high-scoring game. Lawrence threw two touchdown passes in Week 4, but his yardage was still low (169 passing yards), which is a death blow for fantasy managers given his lack of rushing potential.
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Takeaways
It is much more difficult for pass-dominant QBs to reach or exceed fantasy value compared to a dual-threat rushing QB. You’ve been warned for years, but looking for pocket passers – even Mahomes – isn’t the best strategy. Six of the current top 10 QBs in fantasy scoring have over 100 rushing yards. Sam Darnold is the only one in the top five without a rushing touchdown. It’s much easier to get a hit on a guy rushing upfield (a la Fields or Daniels) than it is to predict a breakout season from Darnold or Mayfield.
Running backs
It was a quiet week for Breece Hall (RB16) and another quiet week for Bijan Robinson (RB21) and Rachaad White (RB35). James Cook (RB10) also took a big step back, matching his 39-yard output from Week 3, but failing to score a fantastic touchdown to save the line against the Ravens. On the other hand, just when most people had given up, D’Andre Swift (RB24) had the third-best RB performance of the week with 26 fantasy points.
Brece Room and the Jets’ loss to Denver at home was alarming on several fronts, but Hall didn’t look like a fantasy go-getter at all. Hall brings the Vikings to London for Week 5, a defense that allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. He’s done enough to warrant another start (and honestly, who else do you have?), but another lackluster effort would worry me to the point of benching him if I had another option.
Bijan Robinson should give managers a pleasant surprise in Week 5 as the Falcons face a Bucs team that has been too generous to opposing backs, giving up the 10th most fantasy points and third most rushing touchdowns per game. If he doesn’t produce here, I’ll be concerned, especially because his usage – in terms of snaps, routes run and third downs – is decreasing, while Tyler Allgeier’s is increasing.
By André Swift saved your week if you were to start him, and I’m frankly curious how so many coaches avoided him (59%), as I haven’t been able to in one of my leagues. I give the game the lion’s share of credit here, as the Rams haven’t stopped anyone on the field this season. The good news for Swift’s managers is that next up is Carolina – an even juicier matchup for opposing backs (second-most fantasy points allowed). I’m starting Swift again in week 5, based on the confrontation and the fact that recency bias isn’t always wrong. Swift looked motivated to make an impact and that’s something the Bears desperately need.
James Cook peaked in Week 2 with his three total touchdowns, but hasn’t been an incredible fantasy outside of that one game. Usable, yes, before Sunday night, but not league winner. His lone target in a game where the Bills were down sharply from the start was alarming, especially since Ray Davis wasn’t effective either (1.7 YPC). Ty Johnson got the only touchdown, but we didn’t rely on him in the loss (three carries).
A lot of credit goes to Baltimore’s defense in this one, and so I’m entering Week 5 with some optimism about Cook’s rebound against the Texans, who are an average rushing defense. Cook is the clear leader here, with no alarming change in usage rate in this Buffalo backfield. While the hype after Week 2 may have been overblown, Cook will still be a fantastic starter with some weeks just better than others.
Takeaways
It’s time to think about stockpiling potentially explosive running backs if your starters have disappointed you thus far. Consider drafting Tank Bigsby, Bucky Irving, Braelon Allen or Emanuel Wilson if you can. Each would be a Jordan-Mason game-changer if something happened to their respective team’s starting running back.
Wide receivers
There has been a little less volatility at the WR position than at the others this season. The guys we thought were good are good. Some, like Nico Collins, Malik Nabers and Jayden Reed, are better than expected, but you’ll have no complaints from me. Everything should have been firmly in starting territory from Week 1. Jauan Jennings might be more than a one-time fluke as he followed up his ridiculous Week 3 with a very solid 3/88 game in the week’s win 4.
Garrett Wilson (WR43) is the biggest disappointment so far (aside from WR or QB injuries). He should be putting up double-digit targets every game and averaging well over 8.4 fantasy points per game, but in his (and the Jets’) defense he has faced some tough matchups. All except New England (where he had his best game and scored) are in the bottom third of the league in DvP against wide receivers.
Takeaways
Better days are ahead for a player of this caliber as long as the Jets can keep Rodgers healthy. Although Minnesota has been a great defense thus far, they are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Fingers crossed for a Week 5 breakout game.
Tight ends
The wasteland of fantasy football is the tight end position. The real solution to this problem is to make it optional as an additional flex spot, commissioners! The only tight ends drafted in 12-team leagues to score touchdowns this year – one each – are Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, Pat Freiermuth and George Kittle (2). Dallas Goedert leads the position thanks to weeks without AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, while Brock Bowers, Cole Kmet and Isaiah Probable all have more fantasy points than Kincaid, Pitts, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews and Jake Ferguson.
Takeaways
You’ll continue to start Goedert, Kittle and Ferguson, who, along with Kelce, Kincaid and McBride, enjoy a high usage rate both in terms of snaps and target share. Also of note is Hunter Henry, who enjoys 20% of the targets and 26% of the air yards for New England. Rice’s latest injury will likely force an uptick in Kelce’s fantasy production, but I’m having a hard time finding an excuse to continue starting Andrews, LaPorta, or Pitts.
