According to Elliotte Friedman of SportsnetColumbus Blue Jackets forward Patrik Laine has been admitted to the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program and is free to return to the team. Laine has indicated he wants to make a fresh start elsewhere, putting a top-six forward on the trade market in the midst of a slump. With the Buffalo Sabres potentially looking to add another scoring winger, Laine’s name will undoubtedly come up.
Now we can determine whether Patrik Laine can help the Sabres, but there are three hurdles to overcome first.
1. Physical health
First, he’s recovering from shoulder surgery. Laine played just 18 games last season with the Blue Jackets. His durability is a concern because, in four seasons in Columbus, the most games the forward has played in a season is 56.
2. Mental health
It’s no secret that Laine has struggled to find his footing in the league since being drafted second overall by the Winnipeg Jets in 2016. He’s a prolific goal scorer, but he hasn’t been able to establish himself as a leader or go-to player on his teams. His dissatisfaction with his place in Columbus is now the second time he’s been cut from a deal at just 26 years old.
3. Contract
Patrik Laine is entering the third year of four on his current contract, which carries a salary cap hit of $8.7 million, according to PuckPedia. The Sabers have plenty of ceiling spacebut not quite that There’s plenty of wiggle room to take on Laine’s full contract. Given the tight salary cap situation in the NHL, the Blue Jackets would likely retain Laine’s salary in the event of a trade.
Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league to sign a player, so with a little bit of procrastination they could get a deal done. The question then becomes whether he’s worth the cap hit he’d eat up as a producer for the team.
Related: What the Sabres Should Do With All That Salary Space
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When listing his attributes, it’s clear that Patrik Laine is a sniper and not much else. His blocking rates skyrocketed in a short period of time last season, as did his penalties won. That puts him in the company of aggressive, goal-scoring, complementary shooters like Ryan Hartman of the Minnesota Wild and Frank Vatrano of the Anaheim Ducks.
While Laine’s finishing quality ranks in the 98th percentile, his playmaking ability is in the 23rd percentile and his defense is abysmal in the 5th percentile. He’s considered a power-play specialist, but teams have figured out that he’s one-dimensional in that role, relegating him to the 33rd percentile.
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Okay, so Wool may be a one-trick pony, but what if that one trick is Really Well? After all, he scored 204 goals in 480 NHL games, which is a little less than a 35-goal pace in an 82-game season.
The Sabres have a deep bench of playmakers, point guards and shooters on the team, so it’s a question of line fit for Laine. His projected starting line, if traded, would be next to Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn. Let’s evaluate what he could bring to the trio.
Player Mindset
Laine is an offensive-minded player, no matter how you look at it. His even-strength defensive impact stats are among the worst in the league. Instead of trying to improve his defensive game, Laine is focused strictly on overcoming his issues.
It’s fair to say that Laine’s offensive impact isn’t as great as Cozens and Quinn’s. He relies on them to create in the zone and create lanes to exploit his shot.
Shooting Mentality
By analyzing the shooting mentality of the three players, we can better see how Laine could contribute. Cozens and Quinn would be the creators on the line and Laine and Quinn are the snipers. There is a certain synergy when these three approaches are combined.
Playing Driving
Patrik Laine is spending an average amount of time in the offensive zone, mostly thanks to his teammates. Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn are key drivers of the game, as evidenced by his teammates’ improved shot totals and shot quality when they’re on their line.
That means the Sabres can afford to have a dependency player in their top six, but it comes at the cost of more versatility in lineup changes. Think Jeff Skinner after he was moved away from Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch last season. He struggled to fit in on the third line with Peyton Krebs, and the Sabres suffered for it.
Physical
The Buffalo Sabres have added a lot of speed and physicality to their bottom six forwards, making them a clear target this offseason. Laine would run counter to that priority, as he offers next to nothing in the way of hits and aggression.
Physicality is not necessarily linked to victory, except for a certain level of competition achieved by players who drag their teams into the fight. It can also motivate teammates to improve their game and keep everyone involved.
If Laine were acquired from the Blue Jackets, the Sabres would have only Cozens as their second-line player. That raises concerns about his inactivity at certain points during the season.
Must read: How Peterka, Thompson and Tuch compare to the NHL’s other top lines
Patrik Laine’s verdict
The Sabres already have a former 30-goal scorer in Jason Zucker, who plays second-line left wing. Patrik Laine would be a younger, but more expensive, option. Laine’s goal production is more consistent than Zucker’s, so this would be an upgrade in that regard.
As for fitness, the Sabres are looking to their young core to pick up the slack, and accountability was a concern last season. Laine has accountability issues as a player, and his recent visit to the player assistance program raises some red flags.
Add in durability issues over the past few seasons and a prohibitively expensive contract, and Laine is a player the Sabres should likely stay away from.
