It’s the unofficial start of the NBA’s commercial season.
As of today — Monday, Dec. 15 — 79 players who signed or extended their contracts last summer became eligible to be traded. That means the options have expanded significantly for front offices trying to align salaries and craft trade packages that work for both sides.
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Who are the five players most likely to move before the February 5 trade deadline? Let’s break it down. (Note: This list does not include Giannis Antetokounmpo because there are so many rumors about him that he has his own story.)
Anthony Davis (Mavericks)
It’s no secret that the Mavericks are willing to listen to offers for Davis, something league sources have confirmed to NBC Sports and several other media outlets.
The more interesting question: How strong is the market for Davis?
This season is the perfect example of why some teams are hesitant to go all-in on the 10-time All-Star and NBA champion. When he’s on the court this season, Davis has looked like an All-NBA player, averaging 20 points and 10.5 rebounds per game while playing solid defense. The problem is that the 32-year-old has only played 11 games due to injury. Add to that the fact that Davis, with agent Rich Paul leading the way, expects a massive contract extension from any team that trades for him, and many teams are thinking twice before making a deal.
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How many teams are willing to take this risk? In an NBA that’s moving toward fuller rosters of good players around one or two stars, a 30-something Davis making 30 percent of the salary cap is a tough sell. Only a few teams could go all-in. Keep an eye on Atlanta. If Kristaps Porzingis’ illness keeps him out for an extended period of time, the Hawks might be willing to gamble on Davis as a defensive force in the paint and pick-and-roll partner with Trae Young that they hoped KP would be.
Detroit and Toronto are also said to be interested. However, the Chicago Bulls reportedly don’t want to bring Davis home, seeing him as not fitting the timeline of their young stars.
Jonathan Kuminga (Warriors)
It’s no secret that Kuminga is available in a trade: the Warriors played hard this summer and pushed Kuminga into a contract designed to be traded (two years, $46.8 million, with a team option in year two).
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The Pelicans and Nets are teams that would be willing to take a steal on Kuminga, although Steve Kerr moving him in and out of the lineup this season hasn’t exactly increased his market.
Considering there’s also a lot of buzz around the Warriors’ interest in Trey Murphy III — a fantastic two-way wing suited next to Stephen Curry — it’s possible to see the basis for a trade, but Golden State will have to give up its picks and more than Kuminga. Another potential target for the Warriors: Brooklyn center Nic Claxton, which gives rise to another round of rumors.
Lauri Markkanen (Jazz)
Obviously, Markkanen was not made available for a trade. Remember, Utah locked up Markkanen with a four-year extension worth $195.9 million, and he’s only in the first year of that massive contract. Additionally, Markkanen has done nothing but praise Salt Lake City and how much he wants to be there.
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That said, two things have other teams around the league thinking the Jazz might trade Markkanen after all. The first is simply that Markkanen, 28, is not on the same timeline as Utah’s other young stars, such as Keyonte George (22), Walker Kessler (24) and Ace Bailey (19). If Utah can trade Markkanen for young players or picks, it makes sense.
The other reason is that Markkanen is playing at an All-Star level and helping Utah win games, and the Jazz have a protected top-eight pick that would otherwise be owed to the Thunder. The expectation around the league is that the Jazz will want to actively tank to increase the odds of retaining this pick (currently, the Jazz have the eighth-worst record in the league, and if the NBA Draft lottery were held today, they would have a 60.7% chance of retaining this pick).
Utah is a team to watch.
Keon Ellis (Kings)
While Sacramento’s big names — Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan — have made trade headlines, the player on the roster most likely to be traded is defensive guard Keon Ellis. Sam Amick summed it up well at The Athletic.
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Beyond Sacramento’s core, fourth-year guard Keon Ellis remains the most talked-about trade target among rival teams. Never mind that his league-wide value doesn’t align with how he’s used by Kings coach Doug Christie (he hasn’t played more than 20 minutes just once in the last 11 games and has had a DNP coaching decision in that span).
The real question, though, is whether the price the Kings will pay to move him will be so high as to make a deal difficult to make. It remains possible that Ellis and the Kings find a win-win proposition on the extension front (he has been eligible since February 1, 2017). 9).
One team to watch in the race for Ellis: the Lakers (more details below).
It’s worth noting that of Sacramento’s stars, Sabonis is the most likely to be traded, with the Wizards, Bulls and Suns all expressing some interest. Although the Bucks have reportedly expressed interest in Zach LaVine, he’s making $47.4 million this season — with a $48.9 million player option next season — making any trade nearly impossible. Additionally, to reduce LaVine’s salary, the Kings would likely have to offer a first-round pick and Sacramento general manager Scott Perry isn’t looking to give up his picks.
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Gabe Vincent (Lakers)
The Lakers are a quality team, and with the trio of Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves, they are a team that no one wants to see in the playoffs.
Yet their defense at the point of attack holds them back. It’s no secret, coach JJ Redick talked about it. That’s why the Lakers are looking for Ellis, a 3&D wing in the mold they’re looking for.
Whatever trade the Lakers might make at the deadline, Gabe Vincent — a solid veteran guard — is likely the guy headed for the door (or, at least, part of the package). The Lakers need to do something, which is why Vincent might want to have a backpack ready by the door.
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Honorable mentions to watch out for: Daniel Gafford (Mavericks), Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III (Pelicans), Nic Claxton (Nets), Anfernee Simons (Celtics), Robert Williams III (Trail Blazers) and CJ McCollum (Wizards).
Other commercial notes
Knicks looking to add ball handler
Although the Knicks are most often linked to Giannis Antetokounmpo in trade rumors, he’s not the only member of their board. Then there’s this note from James Edwards of The Athletic, tied.
The Rockets are not interested in Morant
The Houston Rockets are a team committed to their young core as their future (except maybe for Antetokounmpo). Although they made a significant addition by acquiring Kevin Durant, they are not expected to make another move in the short term.
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This is why Houston has no interest in trading for Ja Morant, The Athletic reports. Speculation was that Houston was looking for a replacement for the injured Fred VanVleet, but the Rockets are 16-6 with a top-five offense and defense so far this season. Why would they break that?
