The month of the calendar year in which the NFL rests is a time for reflection (I’m in a reflective mood, having just returned from a yoga retreat in Costa Rica). While NBA business has recently dominated headlines with key stars moving teams in free agency, sports conversations will soon shift to the NFL, to more NFL and more NFL. The power of the league is palpable.
But the question I ask myself is this: What is the NFL’s biggest challenge in maintaining its dominant position in American sports?
First, let’s talk about some issues that are NOT causing real turbulence in the NFL’s flight to continued prosperity, even though fans and media have talked a lot about them:
Unpopularity of the commissioner
Yes, Commissioner Roger Goodell can seem robotic and lacking in humanity. I saw a softer side to him that was not shown publicly, perhaps at the request of constituent owners who prefer a less revealing leader. And yes, his disciplinary decisions can seem arbitrary and sometimes capricious. However, the NFL was more popular and profitable than ever under his leadership. While NBA Commissioner Adam Silver presents himself as more progressive and player-friendly, in the end, both are just suits. The product is the draw. Fans and media may complain about Goodell (and booing the commissioner has become a staple of the NFL Draft), but his popularity – or lack thereof – has had no tangible effect on the league’s booming business .
Player protests
Remember when Colin Kaepernick’s protests — and the tensions that followed — would spark the decline of the NFL? Please. Even the tweeter-in-chief couldn’t make the issue deter fans in any appreciable or lasting way. The NFL settled Kaepernick’s collusion grievance in March, the protests turned into whimpers (with no politics added), and the NFL’s prosperity train was barely delayed.
Concussions/violence
Most predictions about the demise of the NFL relate to this topic. I have heard many people – some of whom I greatly respect – suggest that what happened to boxing will also happen to football, both because of the violence of the game and the brain trauma it leaves behind him. Well no.
While some may cringe at the game’s violence, that’s still a big part of the sale. We deplore violence while craving it. Boxing has in fact suffered in part from the rise of MMA, which is more violent and bloodier. Brutality has been a part of sport since the gladiators; it doesn’t disappear.
The reality is: 1)the NFL has never had a safer product, with more limited practice time and offseason contact than colleges and high schools; and 2) even if some parents steer their sons toward other sports, it will have no effect on a pool of qualified prospects for the NFL (and other leagues). We are years away from what was described in League of Denial And Concussion, and the uncomfortable truth is that many fans would like to see even more violence than the NFL currently allows. Brutality is part of the game and, as the NFL knows, it’s vital to attraction.
The problem
The NFL’s biggest challenge is: attract and retain a younger audience. This is the challenge for all sports leagues, as young consumers have grown up in an on-demand world, with significantly more content to choose from than previous generations. Leagues and businesses that understand and respond to this will thrive; Those who do not will suffer.
The NFL has already begun to take up the challenge over the past year. They took small steps to shorten matches; The NFL needs to recognize that it cannot continue broadcasts that last nearly 200 minutes with 11 minutes left in the game. Play times are now closer to exactly three hours; I predict they will get closer to two and a half hours over the next five years. And the NFL has begun interacting with digital media giants that control much of the content viewed by young consumers. Initial deals with Twitter, Yahoo and now Amazon will grow into more substantial and comprehensive partnerships in the years to come; It’s inevitable. And there will be more licensing deals with companies like Fortnite (which struck a small deal with the NFL last season) that will appeal to younger audiences.
The key word: data
The word that will be key for the NFL to attract young fans is this: data.
Younger fans crave data and will demand it be made available. Statistical information that was once the exclusive preserve of teams is now available to a wider audience, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Consumers, especially younger ones, live in a world where decision-making is based on analysis. The NFL must appeal to this world, which will inevitably provoke reactions.
For example, younger fans are increasingly interested in making remote decisions and optimizing play selection with statistical probabilities, leading coaches to question their “gut decisions” rather than quantified models. And on the scouting side, analytical models showing failure rates for players of a certain size or speed will become commonplace, as younger fans begin to demand this type of information.
This demand is inextricably linked, of course, to sports gambling. We’ve crossed a new frontier, with gambling now legalized in 15 states and counting. Teams guard information such as injury status closely, primarily for competitive reasons (even with rules requiring them to share more). However, injury information is vital to the sports betting community, and as the NFL enters into more partnerships with companies like Caesar’s (the fact that the league now has an “official casino” after decades of bashing against casinos is mind-boggling), there will be increased pressure for teams to release more data. And the inevitability of in-game betting presents both an opportunity for the NFL – with a fertile new revenue stream – but also potential challenges to competitive balance and privacy. There will be many conflicts with teams and players over what data can remain private.
The league has a huge challenge ahead and, in my opinion, the biggest yet. Capturing “the next one” by giving young audiences what they want, which will include more data and more access, is a necessary and important business decision, but one that will face resistance from teams, the NFLPA and individual players. It will be difficult to reconcile concerns about competitive balance and privacy, but the days when this information was entirely proprietary are over; consumers are already demanding more and it will only increase.
Ultimately, the NFL must meet the needs of the consumer: the sports business always wins. It can be a bumpy journey to get there, but, in my opinion, more data and better access are the key to maintaining this much-loved younger audience. How the NFL handles this issue will be the defining legacy of this era.
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