Is the West Coast Conference a power conference in basketball? The question may seem absurd, but this season, the top three teams Gonzaga, BYU and Saint Mary’s… everything you can expect to see in the NCAA tournament – rank favorably among the top three in power conferences.
The traditional “major” basketball conferences of the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC have at least three teams with at least a 10% chance of reaching the Sweet 16, according to BPI. The only other conference that can make the same claim is the one Gonzaga dominated for nearly two decades. Actually, IPB projects the WCC to take more teams, on average, to the Sweet 16 than the Pac-12 or SEC.
When BYU joined the WCC in 2011, it was coming off a season in which it reached the Sweet 16, reached No. 3 in the AP poll, and had the AP Player of the Year in Jimmer Fredette. Gonzaga must have been eager to host a program with recent success, as the Bulldogs had been alone in winning 10 of the last 13 WCC tournaments, had appeared in 10 straight NCAA tournaments and had won at least a share of 11 straight regular-season conference titles.
The WCC was supposed to have a “Big Three” of BYU, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s for the past decade. Instead, it was Gonzaga head and shoulders above everyone else, securing the top seed in the NCAA tournament and even a Final Four appearance.
Saint Mary’s accomplishments during this span are a regular season and conference tournament championship in 2012, a shared regular season title in 2016, and a tournament championship in 2019. BYU, on the other hand, has been a perennial No. 3 seed in the WCC tournament, only earning a No. 2 seed twice.
The lack of competition over the past decade led Gonzaga to consider moving to the Mountain West two years ago. The WCC made some concessions by shortening the conference schedule, going from a true 18-game round-robin tournament to 16 games in which the better teams would play the weaker teams only once per season. This allowed Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and BYU to have a better SOS in conference, but also replace those two abandoned conference games with stronger non-conference opponents.
Each of these teams took advantage of this season’s new setup, posting strong non-conference resumes. BYU and Saint Mary’s have greater non-conference strengths this season than both averaged from 2011 to 2018. Gonzaga’s decline in non-conference SOS has more to do with the poor seasons of North Carolina, Texas A&M and Washington than Gonzaga’s eagerness to play quality teams.
In conference, things were less one-sided. Gonzaga lost by 13 last weekend to BYU, its first conference loss since January 2018. Saint Mary’s and BYU split two games, one in overtime and the other won on a 3-point shot by BYU. TJ Haws with 10 seconds remaining. If Saint Mary’s beats Gonzaga this Saturday, the top three will have split all of their games against each other.
Regardless of Saturday’s outcome, Gonzaga has already won the WCC regular season title and is the favorite to win the conference tournament according to BPI. But don’t expect them to be the only WCC team making noise next month.
