-
Kevin Pelton, ESPN senior writer
Freshman point guards have dominated the 2021 NCAA basketball tournament storylines.
On the men’s side, Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs made one of the most memorable shots in March Madness history, scoring a 3-pointer from just midcourt to beat UCLA in overtime and send the Bulldogs to the championship game undefeated.
The long shots were also a storyline for Iowa star Caitlin Clark, who knocked down six 3-pointers as the Hawkeyes defeated Kentucky to reach the Sweet 16, while Suggs’ Minnesota compatriot Paige Bueckers led UConn to the Final Four and became the first freshman on the women’s side to Earn the Wood and the Naismith national player of the year award.
However, once the buzzer sounded and the confetti fell, Suggs, Clark and Bueckers’ storylines diverged. With Suggs expected to declare for the NBA draft soon, the debate has become how far his exploits should push him up the draft boards. Meanwhile, Bueckers and Clark returned to campus as the 2021 WNBA Draft approaches (7 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN/ESPN app).
Bueckers won’t be eligible for the WNBA draft until 2023, when she turns 22. Because she was born in 2002, Clark should be on track to graduate in three years to enter the draft early. Otherwise, she will not be able to play in the WNBA until 2024.
The early success of Bueckers and Clark sparked further discussion about the WNBA’s age limit and whether it was time for a change.
Early entry, a possible future subject of the ABC
The Women’s National Basketball Players Association (WNBPA) had its work cut out for it during negotiations over the revolutionary collective agreement (CBA) with the league that came into effect last year. With the focus on increased salaries, total cash compensation, free agency changes and improved travel requirements, the WNBA age limit has not been a significant part of the discussions.
“This is something we discussed during our CBA negotiations,” said WNBPA Vice President Sue Bird. “The truth is that sometimes in CBA negotiations, when there are so many things to address or correct, you don’t manage to address everything. And unfortunately, that was one thing. If anyone participated in a negotiation, he knows that you have I must have a list of priorities. “
At that time, early entry was not a topic of discussion in the media as it became following the early seasons enjoyed by Bueckers and Clark.
“I think the beautiful thing is there’s a reason we’re talking about it now,” Bird said, “because these players are showing their talent, they’re showing how good they are.”
Along with Bird, other WNBA veterans interviewed on the topic during USA Basketball’s mini-camp in San Antonio during the NCAA tournament expressed support for giving prospects more flexibility – even if players don’t necessarily choose to declare early for the WNBA. drafted as often as in the NBA.
Bird, who noted that his experience at UConn was in many ways more first-class than she found after arriving in the early days of the WNBA as the No. 1 pick in 2002, pointed out that Pending changes to NCAA “name, image and likeness” rules could allow players to monetize their subscribers on social networks while remaining in college. However, the more choices, the better.
“I think the next step is to have that option,” said Diana Taurasi, No. 1 in 2004, who is now the WNBA’s all-time leading scorer. “Will the kids do it? Probably not. But you should have that option. It’s a career path that you follow and if you’re the best at your profession, you should be able to continue to improve. I don’t Don’t say they won.” That’s not the case in college, but it’s just a different level when you get to the pros. »
The level of competition was a motivating factor for Seattle Storm All-Star guard Jewell Loyd, who opted to forgo his senior season at Notre Dame to become the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft. Loyd was eligible in the draft after her junior season because she was 22 that year.
“That’s a question I asked myself when I left: If I wanted to play against the best and learn from the best, well, the best players aren’t in college,” Loyd said. “The best players are in the league. I want to challenge myself and improve. …
“I think the talent is improving, the game is clearly growing, so if it suits you, you should have a choice, like anything else.”
If players continue to support changes to the age limit, WNBPA President Nneka Ogwumike – herself number one in 2012 – could see the players’ association pushing the topic when discussions begin on a new convention collective, which would only come into force after the deadline. 2026 season at the earliest.
“I look forward to seeing how this collective agreement evolves after we create many new terms that we will see unfold over the years,” Ogwumike said. “But I think if the conversation happens now, as we see how basketball plays out in college and ultimately in the league, it may be a conversation that comes up in subsequent negotiations.”
Early entry is better for stars than projects
Especially in comparison to what is not considered a particularly strong draft class, Bueckers and Clark appear to be more promising prospects. Bird expressed confidence that Bueckers would be the No. 1 pick if she were eligible for Thursday’s draft.
“Obviously, Paige needs to mature,” Bird said. “She’s just a kid. She’s about 19, right? She’s going to mature. She’s going to get stronger. She’s only going to get better when that happens. But draft picks , to me, are investments. And there’s no doubt in my mind that people would want to invest in a player like Paige right now in this year’s draft.”
“Those would be the two best players coming out of college,” Taurasi added, referring to Bueckers and Clark.
“Draft picks, to me, are investments. And there’s no doubt in my mind that people would want to invest in a player like Paige right now in this year’s draft.”
Sue Bird on Paige Bueckers
Statistics confirm this potential. Based on my translations of NCAA to WNBA performance, adjusted for strength of schedule, Bueckers and Clark had better seasons in 2020-21 than any draft-eligible players. As a result, it’s reasonable to think they could contribute to the WNBA as teenagers.
Based on these translations, I project Bueckers would average 10.3 points and 3.8 assists if she played starting minutes (30 MPG) in the WNBA this season, similar production to Jasmine Thomas of the Connecticut Sun ( 10.2 PPG and 4.0 APG in 25.5 MPG). Clark, who was responsible for a much larger share of Iowa’s offense – his 37 percent usage rate was the most of any Division I player who saw more than 100 minutes of action – has even higher per game projections of 16.0 points and 4.9 assists. No WNBA player has surpassed both of those marks.
The question is whether an early departure for the WNBA would work as well for less stellar prospects. My research suggested that male players develop better in the NBA as singles than returning for their second season in the NCAA. However, there are some reasons to believe that this might not translate to women’s football.
The simplest problem is roster spots. While NBA teams can carry 15 players and two more on two-way contracts splitting time between the NBA and G League, the WNBA rosters carry a maximum of 12 players. Due to the league’s strict salary cap, half of the WNBA’s 12 teams could begin the season with just 11 active players, leaving little room for long-term plans.
There is also less development infrastructure. The WNBA has no equivalent to the development-focused G League, where inexperienced prospects can earn more playing time than in the NBA. And unlike NBA coaching staffs who have has exploded over the past two decades with the addition of multi-stakeholder development specialistsWNBA teams typically have no more than four or five coaches total, giving them less ability to work individually with young prospects.
Ideally, the WNBA’s early entry would resemble the NBA’s model of the early 1990s, before the prep era for the pros, before the league placed so much emphasis on player development. Top prospects would have the opportunity to step up early, giving them a chance to start their professional careers and strengthening the WNBA’s talent base. Meanwhile, other players would stay at least three years in college, preparing them for the uphill battle to stay on a professional roster.
More importantly, the choice would be up to the players and not their birthday.
“I think half the battle is having the choice to do it,” Taurasi said. “And then you go on and you make the best decision.”
