For the first seven weeks of the MLB offseason, the first base market was frozen. Despite a multitude of intriguing candidates to change the thread in free agency and on the trading block there was virtually no first base movement to speak of. Starting pitchers continued to find new homes. Seven catchers have signed big league deals. The foreign market gained momentum after the historic signing of Juan Soto.
But first basemen? Crickets.
While Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, was securing lucrative contracts for several other high-profile clients, the first baseman’s uneventful free agency extended as the most glaring example of its position.
But then, the week before Christmas, a tornado of transactional activity involving Alonso’s peers began. The Astros, fresh off a failed trade attempt for Nolan Arenado — a deal that would have moved recently acquired Isaac Paredes to first base — pivoted and signed Christian Walker to a three-year deal to solidify his corner on the field. The next day, the Yankees agreed to a one-year contract with former MVP Paul Goldschmidt. The D-backs then acquired All-Star Josh Naylor from the Guardians, and Cleveland quickly replaced Naylor with the signing of veteran slugger and familiar face Carlos Santana. Finally, the Nationals reached an agreement with Texas to acquire a former Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Award winner in Nathaniel Lowe.
In 48 hours, five first basemen changed teams. Suddenly, an icy market had thawed in a hurry. Still, Alonso remained available, with minimal buzz suggesting that would change soon. Indeed, the calendar has almost returned to 2025 and Alonso has still not signed.
To be fair, Alonso is an imperfect player, who provides minimal value defensively or on the base paths. But for all his shortcomings, he offers a nearly unmatched combination of durability and power production: Only Marcus Semien has played in more regular-season games since Alonso’s 2019 debut, and only Aaron Judge has hit more home runs.
In fact, Alonso is one of 10 players in MLB history to hit at least 30 home runs in five of his first six MLB seasons. This group includes five Hall of Famers (Ralph Kiner, Eddie Mathews, Frank Robinson, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio), a future first-ballot Hall of Famer (Albert Pujols), and three other formidable 21st century sluggers (Ryan Braun, Dan Uggla). , Marc Teixeira). Only Pujols hit the 30 HR threshold in each of his first six big league seasons, but Alonso – who hit 16 homers in 57 games in 2020 – likely wouldn’t have had his second MLB season cut short due to the pandemic.
Even with this abbreviated campaign, Alonso has one of the greatest home run collections in a career to date that the game has ever seen. Only Kiner (257) and Pujols (250) hit more home runs during their first six seasons than Alonso (226), an astonishing demonstration of his consistency and availability.
The lack of movement on a significant investment in Alonso could also reflect the state of his position. It is no longer first base where many of the game’s most prodigious hitters are found. Today, teams’ power production is more spread out across the entire roster, with first base often serving as the position where multiple players moving around and receiving constant hits. There are still a handful of superstars at the position, but far fewer than there were 20 years ago. Only four primary first basemen – Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper and Matt Olson – were worth at least 3 WAR in 2024, according to Baseball Reference. This is the fewest first basemen to reach 3 WAR in a full season since 1963. For comparison, six have done so in 2023, 11 in 2021, and an all-time high of 15 first basemen reached 3 WAR in 1997.
Although Alonso fell short in 2024, he has passed the 3-WAR mark in four of his first five big league seasons. And as the position has evolved around him – with the legendary careers of Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto officially in the rearview mirror – Alonso has become one of the few everyday stars to remain at his position, the quintessential of a first base hitter. in an era that no longer worships such an archetype. Yet, due to teams’ hesitation to commit long-term to players of his profile – right-handed first basemen with limited defensive value – Alonso finds himself waiting for a meaningful deal.
At the start of the offseason, a reunion with the Mets seemed like the most likely and sensible outcome for Alonso’s long-awaited free agency. It was in Queens that he blossomed into the lovable and recognizable mid-order presence he is today. And beyond the club’s pursuit of Soto, retaining Alonso has been declared a winter priority by New York’s leaders. At this point, however, there were several other suitors with notable needs at first base who could have emerged as suitors for a player of Alonso’s type, such as the Astros, Yankees and D-backs. As those potential alternatives have dwindled in recent weeks, the Mets have become not only the most ideal team. landing point for Alonso but also undoubtedly the only logical landing point on the left.
It’s this dynamic — plus an industry-wide reluctance to devote substantial resources to the position — that has left Alonso’s free agency seemingly stuck in the mud. In theory, the Mets’ long-standing affinity for the player, combined with owner Steve Cohen’s unmatched spending power, should result in a significant deal to keep Alonso in the orange and blue for the long term. But if there aren’t other clubs aggressively lobbying for Alonso’s services, the Mets don’t need to overplay their game and bid against themselves. It’s a far cry from the Soto draw, in which several big-market clubs collectively drove the price to unprecedented heights that Cohen was ultimately willing to achieve. In this case, the Mets can wait more comfortably, recognizing that there is much less competition, and hope that Alonso’s demands will eventually align with the club’s vision for the deal.
If it’s not the Mets, the Giants are shaping up to be the most logical a potential obstacle to Alonso’s return to Queens, but it’s not the most natural solution. Eager to become a contender again, San Francisco caused a stir in early December. with the signing of shortstop Willy Adamescreating a fantastic left side of the infield alongside Matt Chapman. The Giants are also reportedly interested in adding to their rotation, but they have yet to do so.
LaMonte Wade Jr., entering the final year of his contract, is the starting first baseman in San Francisco, although he has been the subject of trade talks. Giants top prospect Bryce Eldridge, who reached Triple-A this season at age 19, is also a first baseman and could be knocking on the door by the end of 2025. Perhaps a trade from Wade to free up space. for Alonso on a short-term deal would make sense, but it’s hard to imagine the club committing to Alonso long-term with Eldridge waiting in the wings.
Beyond San Francisco, Toronto is another club that has aggressively attempted to improve its roster via free agency, but has failed on multiple fronts. While first base is pretty much the team’s last need, given the presence of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays lineup is in dire need of power production. If Alonso and Guerrero are willing to share the DH and 1B duties, perhaps there is a deal. Otherwise, Seattle is the only other club with obvious October aspirations that has a unstable first base situation — but the Mariners haven’t demonstrated anything remotely resembling an appetite for the type of contract Alonso is seeking.
Maybe there’s still a Corbin Burnes surprise at Arizona in store for Alonso, and maybe a mystery team will emerge late as a legitimate contender. Otherwise, all signs point to Alonso staying in Queens, although it’s probably not because of the size of the contract he and Boras were seeking at the start of the offseason.
