Over the past year, Paige Bueckers expanded the scope of what it means to be a college athlete. She played in a Final Four but also became a equity partner in Unrivaled, designed its own gamer edition sneaker for Nike and appeared on courts across the country at various sporting events.
In college athletics’ new era of name, image and likeness, Bueckers has exercised unprecedented agency in his career and in building his brand. What the budding superstar still can’t control is what comes next. Last month, the WNBA Draft Lottery all but assured that the Bueckers’ next basketball stop would be with the Dallas Wings after they won the #1 pick.
For better or for worse, that is the nature of the project. Players have limited influence over their destination. They may choose to meet or train with certain teams and potentially hide their medical records, but ultimately it’s the teams that hold most of the power.
Bueckers, however, finds herself in a rare situation where she wields more influence thanks to her market value, NIL portfolio and college eligibility. (She may return for a sixth season at UConn due to COVID-19 eligibility rules.) If she decides not to play for the Wings — and the buzz around the league is that Dallas was not her destination preferred – she could exercise all possible levers. to get where she wants as quickly as possible.
Although Bueckers indicated she considers this season her senior year, she may return to UConn if she doesn’t want to enter the WNBA in 2025. Whether it’s because she’s aiming for a national championship, prefers a different draft destination, or wants to delay her professional career until a new WNBA collective bargaining agreement is instituted, there are incentives to play a season of more with the Huskies. Even if Bueckers chooses to turn pro, she might just demand a trade.
Paige Bueckers says she didn’t watch the WNBA Draft Lottery this weekend
“I mostly solved this problem by focusing on a good workout today” pic.twitter.com/049M5iFilR
– UConn on SNY (@SNYUConn) November 20, 2024
“There’s just a lot of noise — a lot more noise in terms of rumors, in terms of all these things around women’s basketball, now more than ever,” said ESPN analyst Andraya Carter, who played at Tennessee until the end of his career in 2015. “I don’t know if the rumors are true, but this is the first time I’ve heard it to this extent.
While Bueckers is likely a star in any WNBA franchise, Dallas doesn’t offer the most opportunities for a player with a huge built-in fan base and marketing appeal. The Wings have been notoriously unstable since arriving in Dallas in 2016. They have changed coaches every two seasons and are looking for another. In 2018, a post-game altercation between head coach Fred Williams and CEO Greg Bibb led to Williams losing his job. Stars haven’t exactly flocked to the Wings in free agency, and some of their most high-profile players have publicly criticized the organization; Skylar Diggins Smith highlighted the lack of support she felt she received during her pregnancy in 2018-19. The steady drain of talent has been happening in the other direction. Diggins-Smith and Liz Cambage requested to participate via exchanges, as did Allisha Gray And Marina Mabrey in the 2023 offseason.
To be fair to Dallas, the other lottery options had their flaws as well. Teams are bottom of the league for a reason. Although Bueckers would have preferred to go to Los Angeles or Washington, the Sparks I don’t have a practice facility and I’m in a four-year playoff drought, and the Mystics do not have a head coach or general manager and play in a 4,200-seat arena.
Given the state of the lottery teams, Bueckers could return to college by forgoing his draft eligibility at the end of the year. NCAA season and postpone the WNBA until 2026. This unfortunately still leaves it at the mercy of the lottery, but perhaps the threat of playing another season for UConn would motivate the Wings to take a trade request seriously.
Additionally, it could fall on her financially to delay the start of her WNBA career. By entering this season’s draft, she would lock herself into a four-year rookie contract averaging $87,000 per year. However, the WNBA will enact a new collective bargaining agreement before the 2026 season, which includes an increase in player compensation.
The last time the league instituted a new CBA, second- and third-year players were stuck in their rookie contracts from the previous agreement. This has led to awkward and unfair situations; Napheesa Collieralready an All-Star as a rookie in 2019, earned the league’s lowest salary in 2020 and 2021 despite being one of its best players. It’s a difficult situation Buckers would rather avoid.
If Bueckers chooses to leave UConn after this season, which has been his public stance, the main tool at his disposal is to demand a trade with Dallas. Golden State appears to be an ideal destination in terms of market size and organizational strength, as well as Valkyries are motivated to get a star quickly, although Bueckers is best placed to provide a list of suitors to encourage negotiations.
Player empowerment is on the rise in professional sports, but that hasn’t been the case for the draft itself in recent years. In the WNBA, Kelsey Plum accepted its fate in San Antonio in 2017. Aliyah Boston voluntarily went to Indiana, then a five-win team was moved for three summers due to arena renovations. Before NIL, no other recourse existed for women’s basketball players, as players like Satou Sabally (who was chosen by the Wings) felt obligated to enter the draft to start earning a salary. Even Boston didn’t have the power to move the system. Analysts we spoke with said they don’t recall any WNBA prospects trying to force their way to a different destination in the draft.
THE NWSL drafts eliminated. In men’s sport, salaries are so lucrative that there is a willingness to sacrifice individual autonomy, but the finances are not there on the women’s side. A five-figure salary isn’t enough to force a star to play in a city not of his choosing, for an organization that hasn’t had a winning culture.
Trade demands are old for WNBA veterans, and the stars usually win. Over the past 10 years, Kahleah Copper, Elena Delle Given and Sylvia Fowles successfully negotiated their way to new teams. Fowles even sat out half a season while waiting for the right deal. Bueckers would hardly be notable if she expressed a desire to play for another team, although the timing of her request would be unique.
“Having these players be able to make money on their own, launch their brand and start their careers outside of school and off the field, it opens up different avenues,” Carter said. “They just have more options now.”
If Bueckers plays chicken with Dallas after being drafted and holds out until she’s traded, she can cash in on her corporate sponsorships with Gatorade, Nike and Bose, among others, even if she doesn’t earn a salary to play basketball. It also has an equity stake in Unrivaled, a new 3×3 women’s basketball league, which could prove successful. Those gains would more than offset the projected top pick’s $78,831 contract.
The idea of voluntarily not playing basketball could be difficult for Bueckers, who has dealt with numerous injuries. But on the contrary, the precariousness of her career should motivate her to find an ideal landing spot for the WNBA as quickly as possible.
There’s a long way to go between now and the 2025 draft, which gives Bueckers and his rep plenty of time to evaluate Dallas and gauge the market for a trade if the Wings don’t meet his standards . How the Huskies play in 2024-25 could also shed light on the Bueckers’ willingness to spend another season in Storrs. Either way, Bueckers holds his destiny in his hands more than other potential No. 1 picks. If she wants to refuse the path traced by four ping-pong balls, she has the power to do so.
This article was originally published in Athletics.
Connecticut Huskies, WNBA, Sports Business, Women’s College Basketball
2024 The Athletic Media Society
