Every year, there are players who expect to hear their name called early in the draft, only to fall lower than initially expected. One player in the 2024 NBA Draft who could face such a slide is Nikola Topic.
While he was projected as the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft here on For The Win’s First Consensus Draft just last month, a lot has changed since then. Today, the projections are much lower.
Topic, a nearly 6-foot-6 guard in socks in the 2024 NBA Draft in Italy, won the MVP of the FIBA U18 European Championship in 2023. He was also named the top prospect in the ABA League in 2024 and named All-ABA League team.
He averaged 18.6 points, 3.7 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game while playing for KK Mega Bemax. Topic was then loaned to KK Crvena zvezda in Serbia, but suffered a knee injury in January. Back in court, he ultimately suffered a partial ACL tear.
Is this why many have the impression that its stock of projects is declining, or are there more? Here are some of the latest reports.
Redshirt season
Jonathan Givony (via ESPN): “A team that picks him will likely have to be comfortable with the idea of a redshirt season next year with long-term thinking in mind, the same way Chet Holmgren, Joel Embiid, Michael Porter Jr. and Blake Griffin have started their NBA careers.
Knee injury and shooting
Western Conference Executive Committee, via David Aldridge (via Athletics): “If he starts to fall, it’s not because of his size, his age or his skills; it will be because of something else, and it will be the knee. But it doesn’t appear to be a wildfire, although that is legitimately a concern. Right now, when we break it down, how can we add a non-shooter to what we have? You put so much pressure on your player development area – guys, we need to make him a respectable shooter. And that means 38 percent, 39 percent from 3. And he’s never done that in his career. But you have to do this to him. You can like his size, his passing ability and his basketball IQ, but ultimately in the league you have to be able to make a shot.
Small sample
Sam Vecénie (by The Athletic): “The subject has a lot of upside, especially if you really believe in the work he did with the ball in his 13 games to start the year for Mega. But using a top-five pick over a 13-game sample, especially when his games with Red Star were much more pedestrian, is a huge gamble for any front office’s primary decision-maker. This person should have confidence that what they saw was reality and not the construction of a mega attack that also allowed Nikola Djurišić to break free as a scorer after Topić’s transfer to Red Star. If his ability to separate from NBA-level athletes isn’t showing and his jumper isn’t doing it, then what is he? Is he even a starter? As a huge ball handler with serious touch and incredible vision as a passer, Topić is clearly an NBA player, even if not everything translates. But his floor is lower than every other top player in this class because his sample size of strong play is so small — even though his resume includes winning the European Under-18 Championships MVP last summer .
With great size at his position and as one of the best floor generals in the class, Topic still has plenty of value no matter where he is selected. At BetMGM, Topic’s draft position over/under was set at 11.5 and he was +200 to make the top ten.
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