Well, it’s a bit of déjà vu, isn’t it?
Two years ago, Chet Holmgren was drafted second overall by the Oklahoma City Thunder, but then suffered a Lisfranc injury during the offseason, which kept him from playing his entire “real” season rookie. Now in the 2024 NBA Draft, Nikola Topic was selected 12th overall, but he is expected to miss his own rookie season due to a torn ACL he suffered during the Adriatic League playoffs.
Waiting an entire year for Holmgren to debut was difficult to deal with, but that didn’t stop the Thunder from taking the Serbian guard with their lottery pick among many quality options on the board. While it may be confusing to relive this on paper, his position compared to two seasons ago and the draft potential make it a reasonable decision.
Oklahoma City is undoubtedly in a win-now position, coming off a No. 1 seed campaign and a second-round loss to the eventual Western Conference runner-up, the Dallas Mavericks. The sad truth about this year’s draft is that there aren’t many winning players now, accentuated by the position he was in. No player was going to have such a drastic impact or receive a significant role. already, so the subject of the redshirt year should not have too much impact on the team.
If anything, his debut the following season could have a bigger impact.
Before his ACL injury, Topic was in the conversation to be a top-three pick in this class. Eliminating any concerns about future injuries, he has all the tools to be an interesting choice for the Thunder for a long-term future.
The 18-year-old averaged 18.8 points, 7.2 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game last season in Serbia, showing a clear ability to be a high-IQ playmaker and perimeter threat. Passing is his biggest strength, and it’s a major area that Oklahoma City general manager Sam Presti looked to improve this offseason. It may take a while to see it, but he brings a skill set that could be useful in his bench guard rotation.
The most obvious comparison drawn from Topic is of course Josh Giddey. They both share a similar archetype of a big guard who prides himself on his playmaking ability, so it’s natural to immediately make this comparison. However, a big strength of Topic is his ability to convert opportunities at the rim, something Giddey has struggled to do throughout his career.
Topic’s scoring potential is much higher than Giddey’s, even on the perimeter. He wasn’t just brought in to replace the current Chicago Bull, but he could still fill a similar role that Giddey provided as a giant guard and secondary playmaker to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And as the youngest player selected in the first round, he has plenty of time to get there.
The pick is not without its risks. Topic could easily struggle to adapt to the NBA, much less stay on the court, causing the Thunder to misfire. Still, he could reasonably command a high ceiling, given the time and other assets needed to take a chance on him. Not every team can take that risk, but they may have the luxury.
Even though Oklahoma City considers itself a championship contender right now, its very young roster and stock of draft picks are poised to compete for the next decade. He can get some winning plays now in free agency, but if he couldn’t find a better use for the No. 12 pick, then he might as well have used it on a player who could help him maintain his success on the road.
As we saw with Holmgren, being sidelined for a year has its benefits. Topic will still be able to develop chemistry with his teammates throughout the season while also getting acquainted with the NBA game by watching from the sidelines and working in practice. He’ll learn the system, feel comfortable in it, and be ready to fit in instantly once his rookie campaign begins.
While waiting for a new rookie can be disappointing, Topic could also be a player worth waiting for. There are clear signs that he could be a key contributor for the Thunder in the future, especially if he can extend his offensive capabilities to the three-point line. It will be his time, you will just have to wait a little longer than usual.
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