It’s a wide-open race for the NBA scoring title to start the 2022-23 season.
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In Sunday’s games, eight players averaged more than 29.5 points per game. Who will become the NBA scoring champion this season?
STEVE ASCHBURNER: With Election Day still fresh in our minds, I’m opting for a little ranking voting (this is how the NBA and most leagues determine their annual awards, but not the statistical leaders). So I choose these as my Top 3:
1. Luka Doncic, Dallas
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City
3. Steph Curry, Golden State
Doncic has everything in place to win his first scoring title. He currently directs (33.5 ppg through Monday), the Mavericks are built around him like his last name is Nowitzki, his field goal attempts and usage rate are at career highs and frankly, he’s overdue to lead the league in a traditional category. Additionally, I suspect his 3-point shooting, currently at a personal low (28.8%), will regress toward his average, which could add another half-point to his scoring average the rest of the way. .
Gilgeous-Alexander has been a meteor crossing the NBA sky, and I think he’s legit. He’s loving this breakout season he’s having, and going for a scoring crown is a great way for him to stay focused in what will likely be another long year for (improved but still losing) OKC.
As for Curry, he just won his sixth game at 50 points since he was 30 (11th in his career) and no one can score in groups like the all-time 3-point king. He already owns two of these titles, but by winning one at 35 years and 26 days, Curry would break Michael Jordan’s hold on the top 3 spots as the oldest champion (MJ did it at 35-72 , at 34-72 and at 33 years old). -72 in 1998, ’97 and ’96 respectively). Steph might like this.
Stephen Curry drops 50 points on the Suns.
BRIAN MARTIN: Out of this pack, my top three contenders are Luka Doncic (33.5 points per game), Stephen Curry (32.3 points per game), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game). From this group, my predicted scoring champion is Doncic.
Curry is turning out the lights this season: 52.9% from the field, 44.7% on 3-pointers (on 11.8 attempts) and 90.3% on free throws. He could join Hall of Famers Larry Bird and Steve Nash as the only players with multiple 50-40-90 seasons if he maintains this level of efficiency. What hurts Curry is that he has the second-lowest usage of this eight-man field (29.7%) and Golden State needs Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole to get back into the playoffs.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging a career-high 31.1 points per game (up 6.6 points per game from last season) and is also currently posting shooting splits of 50-40-90 (good with almost nine fewer 3-point attempts than Curry). Gilgeous-Alexander has the fifth-highest usage of this group (31.5%) and averages the second-most field goal attempts (21.3), which is 7.1 more attempts than any OKC teammate. However, all of these numbers are lower than what Doncic is doing.
He has a combination of usage rate (37.3%, which ranks third, slightly behind Joel Embiid and Kevin Durant), field goal attempts (a league-high 22.8), free throw attempts (11.4, third, slightly behind Giannis and Embiid) and lack of competition for shots (9.1 more per game than any other Maverick) which makes him the leading candidate to maintain his current lead and win his first title NBA scorer.
Doncic isn’t quite on James Harden’s 2018-19 level in terms of usage (39.6%), shot attempts (24.5), and dominating shot attempts over his teammates (10. 7) while Harden averaged 36.1 points per game, but both are similar as the undisputed offensive pivot of their respective teams.
By comparison, Durant doesn’t lead the Nets in shot attempts (Kyrie Irving does); Embiid has the aforementioned Harden and Tyrese Maxey to compete for shots; Giannis plays the fewest minutes of this group and still has Khris Middleton back; Jayson Tatum has fellow All-Star Jaylen Brown; while Donovan Mitchell has fellow All-Star Darius Garland in the backcourt and the lowest usage of any player in that area (29.5%).
Luka Doncic drops a 40-point triple-double to put the Mavericks past the Trail Blazers.
MEDINA BRAND: Mavs coach Jason Kidd warned that Luka Doncic’s usage rate is so high that “he’s not going to be human if he gets past Christmas.” Still, Dallas seems to be better seeing if Doncic can show he’s a machine rather than relying on other options.
Consider the difference between Doncic’s scoring (league-leading 33.5 points per game) and the Mavs’ other double-digit scorers (Spencer Dinwiddie’s 17.1 points per game, Christian Wood’s 16.6 points per game and 11.5 points per game from Tim Hardaway Jr.). Doncic raised his teammates well enough to place fourth in the NBA in assists (8.1) through Monday’s matches. However, with Jalen Brunson leaving for New York last summer, Doncic increased his scoring load out of necessity. This reality will ensure both that Dallas makes the playoffs and that Doncic becomes the NBA’s scoring champion.
If the team dynamic didn’t apply, Warriors guard Stephen Curry could easily win his third NBA scoring title. But Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole will knock out some of Curry’s attempts once they make consistent shots. Warriors coach Steve Kerr will also reduce Curry’s workload, including sit him out for Monday’s game against New Orleans. Doncic was also rested recently against Houston. But the Mavs don’t have the luxury of managing Doncic that way long term..
SHAUN POWELL: First let me explain who won’t be the scoring champ: not Giannis Antetokounmpo (Shaquille O’Neal-like free throw shooter so far), or Donovan Mitchell (Darius Garland starting to cut down on his attempts) , or Jayson Tatum (same, Jaylen Brown), or Kevin Durant (Kyrie Irving is back in the lineup — have you heard the news?), or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (has a chance, sure), or Joel Embiid (James Harden will need some shots when he gets healthy).
That leaves two-time scoring champion Steph Curry and Luka Doncic. That’s who will decide this race. And it will come down to this fundamental question: Who carries the biggest scoring burden for their team? While Curry is once again in top form (44.7%) for the Warriors, common sense says he’ll have fewer attempts once (and assuming) Klay Thompson finds his rhythm. Meanwhile, Doncic gets to the free throw line a lot more, gets a lot of usage, and is the heart of the Mavericks’ offense. Furthermore, I suspect Doncic of the Kia MVP award in the lead (it’s his turn!) and a scoring title will boost his chances (but don’t tell that to Embiid, who finished first in scoring, second in MVP voting last year).
As Luka Doncic claims the top spot and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rises quickly, Michael C. Wright breaks down the latest KIa MVP ladder.
JOHN SCHUHMANN: First, I’ll note that this time last year, eventual scoring champ Joel Embiid (who had played in just nine of his team’s 18 games) was averaging just 21.4 points per game, which ranked him 22 among the players who have made so many appearances. So maybe the eventual leader this season will be Anthony Edwards, De’Aaron Fox or Trae Young, and not one of these eight guys.
But if I have to choose among the eight, I would favor Giannis Antetokounmpowhich is on average 30.1 points per game even if his shooting (effective field success percentage of 53.6%) is much lower than that of the last four seasons (59.2%). Khris Middleton will eventually make his season debut and reduce Antetokounmpo’s usage, but he will also contribute to Antetokounmpo’s efficiency. (Middleton is the teammate who has helped Antetokounmpo the most, both in total assists and per minute spent on the floor together, over the past two seasons.) Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant have also shot slightly less efficiently ( from the field) than them. have done so over the past few seasons, so they should remain at or near the top of the list.
Giannis Antetokounmpo scores a game-high 44 points in a win over the Rockets.
MICHAEL C. WRIGHT: Of the eight players we’re talking about, six of them (Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell and Giannis Antetokounmpo) rank among the top 10 in the NBA in field goal attempts per match with Curry sitting in 10th place (20.6). Now, when looking at usage rate, only four of them (Doncic, Embiid, Durant and Antetokounmpo) rank in the top 10.
So, to me, the offensive player most necessary to the team’s overall success should finish the season with the scoring title. In this case, that player from that perspective is Doncic, who is currently playing a career-high in minutes (36.9) to go with the highest usage percentage (38.3) of his career. Doncic also makes a staggering 11.4 free throws per game (another career high), which ranks him third behind Antetokounmpo and Embiid. Naturally, Dallas has become a little too dependent on its 23-year-old superstar, a fact that hasn’t escaped Mavericks coach Jason Kidd.
Kidd expressed concerns about Doncic’s high usage rate, as well as the fact that this team lacks a reliable third ball handler behind veteran point guard Spencer Dinwiddie. So, as long as Doncic can physically withstand the rigors of this long NBA season, the scoring title is his. Shoot, Dallas needs Doncic to win just to stay in contention if the rest of the team doesn’t eventually step up and become bigger contributors.
