Draft Rule 5 is coming next week at the Winter Meetings, but I have Draft Rule 4 fever. Hence the initial question in the latest edition of Pipeline Inbox. . .
With the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, the Royals select . . . ? — Marty J., St. Joseph, Missouri.
Not so fast, my friend. Until MLB led the Lottery draw Next Tuesday, at the Winter Meetings, we will not know who will get first place in the general classification. Along with the Athletics and Rockies, the Royals have the best odds of any club – but it’s only an 18.3 percent chance.
Whichever team gets the first pick will have seven months to get there and may need most of that time to do so. Based on this year’s crop of talent, it’s very likely that a college player will go No. 1, but no one has established themselves as a clear favorite at this point.
Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz, West Virginia shortstop JJ Wetherholt and Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana are currently the leading candidates. My best guess is Kurtz, whose combination of hitting ability, power and strike zone control should allow him to have the greatest offensive impact of any available player. Although he doesn’t add much positional value, he plays a good first baseman.
Which prospect outside the top 100 will make the biggest jump this season? — @ChiSoxJRod
I’m still missing the Arizona Fall League two weeks after the season ended, so the first player that comes to mind is Cubs second baseman James Triantos. He hit .417/.495/.679 for winning the AFL Offensive Player of the Yeardemonstrating his impressive ball-striking skills that earned him a $2.1 million slot bonus as a 2021 second-round pick out of a Virginia high school.
With the usual caveats that Fall League favors hitters and represents a small sample size, the Cubs’ No. 9 prospect has made encouraging progress with his power, plate discipline and aggressiveness on base. His defensive home remains a question, but he’s poised for a breakout year in 2024 and I could see him ranking in the top half of MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects List by the end of the season.
If the Red Sox catching situation remains the same, where do you see Kyle Teel ranking in their order of catching depth? Is there a chance we’ll see him in the big leagues in 24? — @a_j_s0250
Teel until the Red Sox pounced on him with the 14th overall pick looked like one of the 2023 first-round steals. The Atlantic Coast Conference Player of the Year turned pro by reaching . 363/.482/.495 with 21 walks in 26 games while progressing to Double-A.
The clubs Hope #4 has a selective approach and throws the ball to all fields from the left side of the plate. He could hit .275 with 20 home runs per season, and he also frames pitches well while displaying extra arm strength behind the plate.
Boston currently has a big league catching tandem of Connor Wong and Reese McGuire, so Teel could become their best safety option in the very near future. He needs a little more development time, but if the Red Sox are in contention and Teel is ready, they could turn to him during the second half of the 2024 season.
How much could a guy like Roderick Arias improve next year? Very equipped player who could climb the ladder. — @RyanJackNYY
MLB Pipeline’s top-rated prospect in the 2022 international class, Arias could start climbing the prospect rankings when he moves to full-season ball at age 19 next season. He hit .267/.423/.505 with six homers and 17 steals in 27 games this year in the rookie-level Florida Complex League before a right hand injury ended his stateside debut.
THE Yankees No. 7 prospect is a switch hitter with 20-20 potential and has made impressive strides in his management of the strike zone this summer. He also has superior speed and well-above-average arm strength, leaving no doubt about his ability to stick at shortstop. It is not excluded that he could join the Top 100 and become the Yankees’ best prospect by the end of 2024.
