Arsenal deals and transfers January 2025
Arsenal’s 3-0 win over GNK Dinamo on Wednesday was important, but is a coveted top-eight finish confirmed? And who could the Gunners face in the next round?
After Wednesday night’s 3-0 win over GNK Dinamo, Arsenal are third in the Champions League stage standings, with a match to be played at Girona next Wednesday.
From the start, the goal has been to finish in the top eight, which means a bye to the round of 16 in March.
Clubs finishing in positions 9-24 have to play an additional knockout round in February, which is something Mikel Arteta has made it clear he would like to avoid.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some frequently asked questions ahead of the final matches of the league stage next week.
Could Arsenal fall out of the top eight on the final day?
The short answer is yes, but it’s very unlikely. If Arsenal win or draw against Girona, they guarantee a top-eight place no matter what.
If the Gunners lose, there are still plenty of other results that must go against them. And it’s not just about good teams winning, but winning by many goals (or Arsenal losing very badly).
The six teams who are three points behind Arsenal all have a goal difference gap of six goals or more to make up.
Arsenal have conceded two goals in seven matches, so assuming they don’t lose by more than one goal, the chasing teams should all win 5-0 at the absolute minimum. For others, it’s even worse than that, like 13th-placed Brest, who are expected to beat Real Madrid 9-0.
Opta Analyst I think it’s so likely that Arsenal will finish in the top eight that they give it a 100% chance of happening. It’s not mathematically confirmed, but the reverse simply requires too many pieces falling into place at the same time.
How important is it to make Arsenal’s top eight?
Yes. The knockout bracket is seeded, with only a small element of chance involved. Finishing first means your team cannot face second place until the final, cannot face third or fourth place until the semi-final, and so on.
The higher you finish, the better your chances of facing struggling teams for as long as possible. An Arsenal win next Wednesday would likely mean a third or second place finish, and that would be much better than losing and placing seventh or eighth.
The draw is not entirely settled, however. For example, the team finishing ninth (currently Aston Villa), will face the 23rd or 24th (currently Sporting and Stuttgart) in the round of 16 of the play-offs, but a draw will determine which of the two it is. .
The idea is to prevent teams from fishing for a specific opponent by fixing their outcome.
As for country protections and protections against playing against the same teams you faced in the championship stage, there are none. Arsenal could face Manchester City in the round of 16, or a recent opponent like PSG or Sporting, and nothing prevents it.
So who will Arsenal face?
It’s really not possible to say at the moment, with so many positions undetermined.
If the league stage ended now, Arsenal would advance to the round of 16 as the third seed and face a team that finished 13th, 14th, 19th or 20th. As it stands, these are Brest, Dortmund, PSV and Bruges.
But it is very unlikely that these four teams will end up in the same place after next Wednesday’s game.
You can watch the UEFA round of 16 as is here on their website.
When will the draws take place?
The draw for the knockout stage play-offs will take place on January 31. The knockout stage play-offs will be played from February 11 to 19 and the draw for the remainder of the competition will take place on February 21.
The draws for the round of 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals will take place at the same time.
