Shooting and scoring numbers for the sport are at an all-time low. What gives?
REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine
Every week, our panel of sports enthusiasts addresses a topic of the moment. For today’s conversation Patrick Hruby (writer, Sports on Earth andThe Atlantic), Hampton Stevens (writer, ESPN and The Atlantic), And Jake Simpson (writer, The Atlantic) attempt to publish mid-season report cards on NCAA men’s basketball.
Gentlemen,
Conference titles are still on the line. March Madness is over a month away. There’s still plenty of regular-season college basketball left to play. And yet, I can’t help but think we’ve already witnessed the Game of the Year, the contest that best reflects the state of campus basketball in 2012-13.
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Indiana-Michigan?
Florida-Arizona?
Kansas-anyone-but-TCU?*
No. Sorry. None of the above. The game of the year took place in late January, between Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan. Actually, forget Eastern Michigan. Focus on Northern Illinois. In the entire first part of the game, the Huskies scored four points. As in: as many points as Larry Johnson scored on a single memorable play for the New York Knicks. In 20 minutes. Northern Illinois shot 3.2 percent from the floor, setting an NCAA futility record, and recorded just one field goal, tying another NCAA record. How bad was it? So bad the Huskies quintuplet their offensive output in the second half, and still finished the game with 25 total points on 8 of 61 shooting, including 1 of 33 from beyond the three-point line. (Tip: If you are already 1 in 32, it might be a good idea to stop shooting three-pointers).
Now I’d like to say that this game was an anomaly. A statistical outlier. An imperfect basketball storm. And it was. But only by degree. The fact is that the basket Part of college basketball is in bad shape this season, with men’s Division I shooting and scoring numbers were at historically low levels. As of Feb. 1, teams were averaging 67.7 points per game, the lowest figure since 1981-82, when neither the shot clock nor the three-point shot were part of campus play. Field shooting accuracy was 43.3 percent, the lowest mark since 1964-65. And three-point shooting was 33.9 percent, the lowest mark since the arc was introduced in 1986-87.
Who let the air escape from the college basketball?
West Virginia coach Bob Huggins blames bigger, more physical defenders. Xavier’s Chris Mack blames better video recognition. Others criticize poor shooting fundamentals — a dubious proposition, given that free-throw shooting is pretty much the same as it’s always been — or that corrupter of young big men — longtime hobgoblin of lazy sportswriters everywhere, summer AAU basketball.
In a fabulous room SI.comwriter Luke Winn convincingly demonstrates that coaches who control too much and slow down are the real culprits, sacrificing “pace for slightly greater efficiency,” afraid to run because running means risking “losing games and players.” The other night, Kansas School No. 5, a blue blood school that dizzy under former coach Roy Wiliams – scored 13 points in the first half in a loss to TCU, prompting current coach Bill Self to say, “That was the worst team Kansas has ever put on the field, since Dr. Naismith was there.” I think he had bad teams when he lost to Topeka YMCA and things like that in the first couple of years.
Hampton, we’re supposed to fill out our mid-season college basketball report cards. My rating is incomplete. Just like too many shots from the Jayhawks. So I’m going to ask you two questions: what are your midterm grades and, more importantly, what happened to the game we both love?
–Patrick
* Hampton Stevens only
Patrick,
Loving the Jayhawks, like being a fan of Duke, the Yankees, or any good team, means expecting excellence. It also means agony when you lose. Never mind. The season is young and Louisville has lost three in a row last month. Rick Pitino’s team still poses a threat to advance to the Final Four. This is the life of hoops in the glorious era of parity, especially in this wide-open season. How many schools pose a legitimate threat coming out of a bracket in Atlanta? 30? 50? Every damn team doing the dance? Cool by me.
However, whoever makes it to the Final Four, we know they won’t score in triple figures.
Patrick, you cite many reasons to explain the decline in university brackets. Some I will agree with. Like the idea that some bad offense is caused by good defense. This includes bigger and stronger players, as well as improvements to scouting through video. You may have also mentioned the officials, who seem much more tolerant of hand checks and contact in the paint than the days when Paul Westphal was a go-go.
We’ll have to disagree about blaming control freak coaches, though. Or maybe we can at least excuse them. Coaches may have to control the offense from the bench because no one dribbling knows how to do it.
The biggest change in college basketball over the past few decades hasn’t been the video or the size of the players on the court. There are players who leave the field too early or who never get on. Forget the three-point line. The truly significant change in the rules came in 1976 with the end of “hardship requirements” for teenage players entering the NBA draft. This shift, as you know, has given us today’s hoops landscape: a world where really good players like John Wall are always “one and done,” and a truly superior athlete like LeBron James never plays a second of a college game.
To me, this exodus of talent is the culprit. Players don’t score in college because they’re too busy doing it in the NBA.
What about you, Jake? What is causing declining enrollment on campus and what can we do about it? Besides, should we even want to?
–Hampton
I have to agree with you, Hampton. The unique nature of today’s college hoops means teams have two choices: build a new roster each year but focus on blue-chip talent (let’s call it the Kentucky model) or draft mid-level players who will stay four years and be formed into a cohesive, albeit less talented, unit (the Bo Ryan model at Wisconsin). Either way, the offense is going to suffer.
But you know what? That suits me. I grew up with the New York Knicks in the mid-1990s, whose idea of perfection was winning 70-65. I went to college in the Big Ten, that bastion of 45-44 games that manage to be incredibly compelling to watch even if neither team scores a basket in the final seven minutes. Want to talk about unforgettable Final Four games? Try Michigan State-Wisconsin in 2000, where the final score was 53-41.
I’m sure this view puts me in the minority of basketball fans, who would rather see Doug McDermott score 50 than see Nerlans Noel rack up 12 blocked shots. Mostly offensive, I’d say teams always solidify later in the season (and in case you missed it, Duke beat NC State 98-85 in regulation on Thursday, so it’s safe to say the offense is at least alive and well in the ACC). But I wouldn’t attribute all of this season’s woes to a bad offense. Watch Syracuse execute Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone to perfection, or tune in to any Kentucky game down the stretch and see Noel block or change every shot within 10 feet of the basket. There is some very good defense played in college basketball that should not be overlooked.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to rewatch my Northwest Wildcats’ 55-48 upset win over Minnesota earlier this season. Somehow I don’t think the lack of offense will bother me.
–Jake
