What you need to know about MLB’s looming union battle

Is Major League Baseball headed for disaster?

One year from today – December 1, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET, to be exact – the league’s current collective bargaining agreement expires.

As owners and players seek to agree on a new collective bargaining agreement, there remain major hurdles to overcome and some key points of disagreement.

Will we see a work stoppage in 2027? Is a salary cap coming? ESPN MLB experts Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez answer some of the biggest questions facing the sport.

Is there any chance the two sides can reach an agreement before next December’s deadline – and what happens if they don’t?

Of course. There is always a chance. It’s similar to how lucky Lloyd Christmas was with Mary Swanson, but it’s lucky nonetheless.

The highest probability, if past is indeed prologue, indicates that the league would lock out players on December 1, 2026. A lockout would shut down free agency and trade, as was the case in 2021, and set an even more important, if informal, deadline: early to mid-March 2027, the deadline for potentially losing regular season games.

What happens between now and a year from now could have a significant impact on avoiding the apocalyptic scenario: not only would the players be excluded, but the parties would fail to find common ground afterwards. The biggest threat of a prolonged work stoppage – the last in baseball was in 1994-95 – would come if owners insist on an overhaul of baseball’s economic system to include a salary cap. Player executives have indicated they would not even entertain the idea of ​​a capped system.

At the same time, the union and Executive Director Tony Clark are in the midst of a federal investigation into MLBPA’s finances launched around May 2025. Any government action could have a demonstrable effect on the union’s leadership and, potentially, its negotiating positions. — Jeff Passan

What is the timetable for negotiations between now and December 1, 2026?

Although the sides held a preliminary meeting this fall and may have more informal sessions in the coming months, negotiations typically intensify during spring training.

At this stage, the parties will begin to clearly express their priorities, which will provide a better understanding of the issues that should be at the heart of the negotiations. Most relevant will be how firm the league is about its desire to cap.

Initial offers are important for outlining future negotiations. The most important meetings, however, will take place closer to the December 1, 2026 deadline, with November being the most vital month to determine the parties’ position ahead of the expected lockout. — Passan

Who are the main names fans should know about on both sides of the negotiations?

For the players: Assistant executive director Bruce Meyer is the lead negotiator, Clark the ultimate authority. There is a 38-member Player Executive Council, consisting of eight high-ranking elected members of the subcommittee (Cy Young winners Paul Skenes And Tarik Skubalmore veterans Chris Bassitt, Jake Cronenworth, Peter Fairbanks, Cedric Mullins, Marcus Semien And Brent Suter) and one representative from each team — the rank-and-file delegates.

For the league: Deputy Commissioner Dan Halem is the lead negotiator, Commissioner Rob Manfred the final authority. The league’s labor policy committee — led by Colorado Rockies owner Dick Monfort, accompanied by Hal Steinbrenner (New York Yankees), John Sherman (Kansas City Royals), Jerry Reinsdorf (Chicago Sox), Ray Davis (Texas Rangers), Jim Pohlad (Minnesota Twins) and Mark Attanasio (Milwaukee Brewers) — is the proxy for the 30 owners. — Passan

How will the looming potential of an extended work stoppage impact free agency this offseason?

Executives, league officials and agents agree on one thing at this point in the offseason: They simply don’t know how things will play out in terms of spending. There aren’t any big predictions going into the offseason, and the first few signings don’t bode well either.

That said, two emerging discourses seem to predominate. It’s business as usual for annual World Series contenders like the Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers — and now we can include the Toronto Blue Jays in this category.

Phillies president Dave Dombrowski didn’t even hesitate when asked how the final year of work might impact their winter.

“It’s not something we talk about,” he said. “We will proceed as normal.”

You can expect the same from the Dodgers, who are attempting a rare three-peat in 2026.

Other organizations are waiting for more certainty, potentially in the form of a new economic system, before embarking on serious spending again. That might not happen until the next CBA is signed, meaning the impending end of the CBA will have a say in the offseason, even if the impact is minor.

Chicago Cubs President Jed Hoyer admitted late last season that many of his player contracts were designed to expire after 2026 – in other words, when the CBA expires – in order to have relatively clean books heading into 2027 and beyond. Several agents and teams believe that cost certainty in the form of a new collective bargaining agreement — and, if MLB gets its way, a first-ever salary cap — will return spending to higher levels simply because teams will more accurately understand their annual costs after a new deal.

In the meantime, there are playoffs and the World Series happening in 2026. And those just aren’t the major markets that want to have a playoff run under their belt before things change, according to insiders. So look for free agents who will be successful on the market, even with labor issues creeping in this winter. Yes, a few might enter into one-year contracts, hoping that the next economic system will benefit them when they return to the market – but there is sure to be a lot of momentum.

Agent Scott Boras summed it up when asked if spending would be cut this winter, knowing what would happen after next season.

“Historically we haven’t seen that, because teams always want to be at their best,” he said. “Ultimately, teams understand that they don’t have to pay players in the event of a strike (or lockout).” -Jesse Rogers

Will the battle over a potential salary cap be the main topic discussed between owners and players in the coming year?

There doesn’t seem to be much doubt about that. Economic disparity has been a hot topic for decades. The collapse of the regional sports networks (RSN) television model, which led to several teams losing local media revenue, has brought this topic to the forefront in recent years. And the total spending of teams like the Dodgers and New York Mets has only exacerbated the anger of owners across the industry, who continue to claim they don’t have the revenue to keep up.

Even Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner has recently downplayed his franchise’s profit margins and spoke out in favor of a salary cap. If Steinbrenner, who presides over one of the most powerful sports franchises in the world, seems open to the idea, imagine how convinced his counterparts in markets like Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Tampa are.

But the dominance of the free market has been a major problem throughout the MLB Players Association’s existence. Remember this and you’ll start to understand how ugly it could get. – Alden Gonzalez

What other issues will fans hear the most from each side in the coming year, before the CBA expires?

A central question for the union in the latest round of negotiations was how to get players paid sooner, a counterbalance to the free agency middle class that continues to dry up. Therefore of the current ABCminimum salaries were increased, the prospect promotion incentive was introduced, and pre-arbitration bonus pools were established. Expect more discussions on this topic in general. In all likelihood, MLB will once again argue that higher compensation for young players must be coupled with a lower luxury tax threshold and will once again attempt to pair that with a salary floor. The MLBPA will probably say this is too close to a traditional salary cap system, and we’ll go on and on.

So, yes, economics will dominate – especially with changes to the revenue sharing model desired by both sides that could pave the way for a deal. But two other subjects come to the fore. The first concerns rule changes. In the latest basic agreement, the league was given a shorter window to implement proposed rule changes, and with the majority of MLB’s seats on the competition committee giving it authority over on-field play, the union wants more control. And then there is the subject of an international draft. The league wants one.

During the last round of negotiations, the union considered this possibility. After the ratification of a new collective agreement, the two parties gave themselves four additional months to agree on a trade: the league obtains an international draft, the union removes the qualifying offer. They failed to reach an agreement before the deadline, but it will come up again. – Gonzalez