The Nationals significantly strengthened their rotation yesterday by signing Zack Littell. Once Littell is built up, he should become the Nats’ number two pick behind Cade Cavalli. He’s an exciting addition and one of the best free agents the Nats have signed in recent years, but it leaves questions about how the rotation will look.
A rotation that seemed like a major question mark is now quite loaded after the addition of Littell and Miles Mikolas. Although the unit doesn’t have a very high ceiling outside of Cade Cavalli, I actually think the floor is relatively high. I thought the throwing would be a disaster this year, but as I watch this spring and see the late moves, I’m warming up to the staff.
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Littell is actually an interesting story. From 2018 until mid-2023he was an average middle reliever who was inconsistent. However, after the Rays rubbed some of their pixie dust on him, Littell became a solid middle of the rotation who pitched into games. He did this by becoming a command specialist who relies on his secondary slots.
It might take him a while to ramp up, but when he’s ready, Zack Littell is a lock to make the Nats’ rotation. Cade Cavalli and Foster Griffin also have reserved rotation spots, and I’d be surprised if Miles Mikolas didn’t also have a spot, at least to start the season. That leaves room for Jake Irvin, Josiah Gray, Mitchell Parker, Andrew Alvarez and Brad Lord.
Mitchell Parker has been the least impressive this spring, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts the year in AAA. Given his versatility, Brad Lord seems likely to be moved to the bullpen. It would be an easy decision to make, and Lord is better in the bullpen.
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That leaves Jake Irvin, Josiah Gray and Andrew Alvarez fighting for a spot in the rotation. I think Irvin is the slight favorite right now because of his ability to eat innings. Gray will be in the rotation at some point, but I think he could benefit from a few starts in AAA as he ramps up after missing the last two seasons due to injury. His braking stuff looks sharp, but the speed hasn’t fully returned for the 28-year-old yet.
If Irvin struggles to start the season, he would be an easy candidate to move out of Gray’s rotation once he’s ready. I still think Gray has a slightly higher ceiling than Irvin because his breaking balls are sharper. However, Irvin has been a workhorse for the Nats over the past two seasons despite declining results.
The wild card in all of this is Andrew Alvarez. He dominated his start yesterday, showing off his deep pitch mix and solid command. The crafty lefty dominated a strong Astros lineup, relying heavily on his curveball. I’m not sure what Alvarez’s plans are, but he’s been impressive this spring.
Alvarez can snack at times, resulting in a high tone count. He is also not interested in games. That might make him a natural candidate to become a swing man, but the Nats already have Brad Lord. Given his performance in September and now this spring, it would be difficult to demote Alvarez, but that may be what ends up happening.
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With all this pitching depth, starters 4 and 5 in this rotation will be under pressure to perform. If Jake Irvin and Miles Mikolas don’t get to work, many arms will be nipping at their heels.
Trevor Williams and DJ Herz will also rejoin the group at some point this season, once they are healthy. Riley Cornelio and Luis Perales are also strong arms in the AAA rotation waiting for their opportunity. There may not be a ton of high-end talent, but the Nats rotation offers plenty of options. It’s not something you could say very often in recent years.
As I wrote yesterday, this pitching staff could be surprisingly decent. There are no proven stars, but there are plenty of intriguing plays and a new emphasis on development. A few of these guys are bound to escape, it’s just hard to tell which ones.
With Zack Littell in the fold, there could be a surprising level of skill in this Nats rotation. There is also a healthy level of competition that will require these guys to be on their first match. I can’t wait to see what this pitching staff gets, and after last season, it would be hard for them to be worse.
