The NBA meta is constantly changing as roster building and tactical priorities evolve. Amidst this turbulence, the value of a true primary originator guard will never dissipate. Great teams need players who can create consistent advantages, bend rotational defense, and capitalize on the score or play. For this role, Nikola Topic could be the best option for the 2024 NBA Draft.
During his 13 Adriatic League games with Mega Bemax before moving to the Euroleague (and suffering injuries), Topic averaged 18.6 points and 6.9 assists per game on a true shooting percentage of elite by 62.9%. Topic acted as the offensive centerpiece as an 18-year-old — he won’t turn 19 until August — on a team in a league full of adults. This is as impressive as it gets in terms of pre-NBA production.
Topic wins with elite driving, as his burst and first step help him burn defenses to the rim at will. He lives in the paint, averaging a comical 7.1 layup attempts per game in the Adriatic League. Generating paint touches will always be an extremely valuable skill for guards, as layups and free throws are the best shots in basketball and defenses collapse around the paint.
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When maneuvering to the rim, Topic has no problem finishing among the trees, converting a remarkable 67.8 percent of his half-court layups in Adriatic. That’s a stellar number. For context, that’s more efficient than the draft year numbers for Ja Morant (51.3%), Luka Doncic (62.1%), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (54.7%), and Steph Curry (61.2%), to name a few.
Nikola Topic scouting report: high offensive potential but limited defensive presence
Despite his elite horizontal explosion, Topic is a poor vertical athlete, recording no dunks all season. That’s rare for a player who lives on the edge like him, especially for a 6’5 guard. Some of Topic’s final qualities may not immediately translate into better athletes. This raises some concerns, although I would bet on his elite touch, body control and balance to maintain his finishing at the NBA level.
Topic is a strong passer, operating the pick-and-roll at the NBA level. His passing numbers are solid – a massive 34.4% assist rate, 2.21 assist-to-turnover ratio with 60.6% of his assists leading to two points, indicating solid inside passing . The subject is ideal for clearing hurdles and traps from the pick and roll, jumping into the corner or going over the roll. He sprays passes with his own gravity. Defenders should send help to Topic’s drives, opening up easy passing windows.
There are limits to Topic’s ability to succeed; he’s a high-volume passer but his vision isn’t exceptional. Subject will miss higher level reads in tighter windows at the NBA level, especially against pressure. Given his driving excellence, Topic doesn’t need elite passing vision and creativity to distribute the ball effectively. I don’t think he’ll reach the NBA’s elite passing group, which limits the ceiling.
Scoring outside the paint, especially from three, will be the swing skill for Topic’s offense. He’s shot just 30.6 percent from deep in all games this season, with 5.3 attempts per 40 minutes. Topic’s defenses collapse too easily, causing him to jump. To excel as the NBA’s leading originator, Topic needs to garner more attention.
His shooting metrics are strong outside of low percentages. We’ve already discussed his elite touch and Topic is shooting 87.8% from the line, a good predictor of shot development. Like many young guards, Topic shoots more efficiently on off-the-dribble threes (33.3%) than on catch-and-shoots (27.3%).
Throwing Topic into an on-ball role will make the pull-up three a prime shot to punish sluggish defenses. If Topic can’t improve as a receiver and shooter, he’ll struggle to add value playing alongside other ball-dominant stars. He will also need to expand his box of mid-range counters when defenses overplay the rim against Topic.
The other question that arises is whether or not Topic can hold up defensively against NBA offenses. Despite having good height for the point guard position, Topic has had great defensive difficulties this year. Problems are expected for players as young as Topic, as bigger, stronger defenders blasted him off the ball and often walled him off screens.
Nikola often positioned himself well off the ball but rarely disrupted ball handlers due to his lack of size and strength. He needs to add strength and improve his agility to function as a viable NBA defender. The main value of the subject is on the offensive side and it is common for heavily used young initiators to struggle on defense early in their career, particularly in terms of effort and concentration. To reach his ceiling, Topic must progress on defense at least to the point where defenses can no longer chase him in the playoffs.
Nikola Topic Injury Concerns: Why NBA Teams Should Be Wary
His health will be another factor teams consider, as Topic has suffered several right knee injuries over the past year. Topic returned to the field recently before re-injuring his knee and it didn’t look the same. The burst was nonexistent, as the once-fiery Serb now struggled to flick switches on an island and generate consistent rim pressure.
NBA teams need to have confidence in Topic’s medical prospects to dedicate a top-three pick to him. If Topic’s long-term health is good, he should be an attractive option for teams like Washington and San Antonio that still need a primary starting point guard.
Nikola Topic seems misunderstood in my opinion; he is not a typical European goalkeeper with an academy brain and major sporting difficulties. Topic will win with his elite momentum and driving and will build the rest of his game around this special trait. His profile is not without its flaws, as teams need a plan to develop his shooting, mid-range scoring and defensive profile.
However, scouts should not overthink the subject. Elite drivers with good feel and production at a young age tend to be positive NBA players and Topic should be no different. He’s one of the few players in this class with a true star ceiling and that alone should put him among the top three to five picks in an otherwise starless draft.
