The Mets have been busy in the weeks leading up to their historic 15-year agreement with Juan Sotobut things had been eerily calm in Queens since Soto’s momentous introductory press conference on December 12. That finally changed this week, with reports that the Mets have agreed to a three-year, $75 million deal to keep left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea in Queens after a tremendous breakout campaign for the 32-year-old southpaw.
Beyond their pursuit of Soto, one of the biggest storylines for the Mets entering this winter was how they would rebuild their rotation. In Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana, New York saw their top three 2024 starters enter free agency at the same time.
In response, the Mets first signed right-hander Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million contract. Then, shortly after Severino signed a surprising three-year deal to lead the A’s rotation as the franchise moved to Sacramento, the Mets signed a second starting pitcher — and not the one many expected. Recent Yankees star Clay Holmes agreed to a three-year, $38 million contract with the Mets and will try to return to a starting role he hasn’t held since his rookie year with Pittsburgh in 2018.
Montas and Holmes represented two intriguing steps toward building a new rotation, as both faced considerable questions based on their recent performances and roles. But their signings appear to be a vote of confidence in the club’s pitching development infrastructure, which has begun to prove its mettle with the successes of Severino and Manaea, among others.
The starting pitch market heated up considerably during the winter meetings in December. But as a tidal wave of big contracts and blockbuster deals involving front-line weapons came and went, Manaea went unsigned. Meanwhile, after adding Montas, Holmes and another depth piece in Griffin Canning, the Mets’ new rotation had started to take shape. Add in an effective holdover in left-hander David Peterson and, perhaps more importantly, a hopefully healthy Kodai Senga, and the Mets appeared to have the foundations of a strong starting lineup. But for a club with World Series aspirations — and one that just gave Soto $765 million — that seemed light.
Manaea changes that. The true advantage of this stick still largely depends on Senga’s durability, as it offers the most impactful potential. But Manaea solidifies the middle of New York’s rotation and helps balance the issues present in the profiles of Montas and Holmes. And with top pitcher Brandon Sproat potentially knocking on the door in 2025, the Mets also have good depth in case of injury or underperformance.
Manaea’s massive deal to stay in Queens is another pivotal point in a major league career that spanned both coasts but began in the heartland. Relatively unknown to scouts as a high school student growing up in a small town in northwest Indiana, Manaea stayed close to home during his college career, heading to Terre Haute to play for a strong in-state program from Indiana. He won a rotation spot as a freshman and put himself on the national radar with an even bigger sophomore season in 2012. The buzz in scouting circles grew further that summer, when Manaea pitched spectacularly in the prestigious Cape Cod League, skyrocketing his prospect stock to the point that he entered the following spring as a legitimate candidate to be the first overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft.
Injuries limited Manaea’s speed and consistency as a junior. While his supreme talent still allowed a 1.47 ERA against mid-range competition, teams became wary of investing in the southpaw at the very top of the draft. As a result, Manaea fell to Kansas City with the 34th pick. The Royals demonstrated their confidence in his potential by giving him a $3.55 million signing bonus, the fifth highest figure assigned to any player in the 2013 draft.
Just two years later, Manaea was traded to the A’s as the primary prize for returning Ben Zobrist, who helped the Royals win the World Series later that same year. In Oakland, Manaea established himself as a reliable big league starting pitcher, with his brightest moment coming in 2018, when he threw a hit against the Red Sox. After an excellent 2021 campaign in which he racked up 191 strikeouts in 32 starts, Manaea was the fourth and final major piece dealt out in Oakland’s dramatic roster teardown ahead of the 2022 season. Whether Chris Bassitt was traded to the Mets, Matt Olson to the Braves and Matt Chapman to the Blue Jays, Manaea was sent to the Padres.
Joining an ascending Padres club seemed to offer a big stage on which Manaea could flourish in the final year of his contract before free agency. Instead, the southpaw took a considerable step back in San Diego. His 4.96 ERA in 2022 ranked 59th out of 62 pitchers who pitched at least 150 innings. He failed to crack the Padres’ postseason rotation and was blasted by the Phillies in a disastrous relief appearance. in the NLCS 4 game. Rather than looking to the open market as a prime rotation option, as previously expected, Manaea entered free agency on a much less optimistic note.
He remained on the West Coast, signing a two-year, $25 million deal with the Giants in hopes of reestablishing his value. And although he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen in San Francisco, Manaea pitched well enough to opt out after 2023 and test the free agent waters again. This time, it was an East Coast club that called him: the Mets, needing rotation reinforcements, offered him a two-year pact with an opt-out option similar to the one he signed with San Francisco, this time for $28 million.
And in Queens, Manaea thrived. On a charming Mets 2024 club that had no shortage of lovable characters, Manaea was a fundamental part of the team’s success on and off the field. The key turning point for him individually came in late July, when he watched eventual NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale dominate at Citi Field and decided to drop his own arm slot hoping to roughly replicate the difficult arm angle Sale has long exhibited.
Having long succeeded based on deception and careful mastery of her arsenal, more than defeating her opponents, this adjustment took Manaea’s funk to a whole new level. He had been solid through the first four months of the 2024 season, but this mechanical adjustment, in conjunction with his heavier usage of his sinker, unlocked a different version of him over time. In Manaea’s next outing and first with his forearm, he struck out 11 Minnesota Twins over seven scoreless innings in his best start to the season.
The divisions are obvious:
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20 starts before dropping his arm: 106 IP, 3.74 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 22.6% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 0.671 OPS allowed
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12 starts after: 75 2/3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 28.4% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate, 0.538 OPS allowed
This new and improved Manaea carried over into October, with the grand finale of his breakout in Game 3 of the NLDS, when he blanked the Phillies for seven frames before departing for a raucous Citi Field early in the eighth. He also showed well in a win over the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLCS before faltering in his second showdown with the eventual champions in Game 6. By this point, however, Manaea had gained confidence and the adoration of the Mets faithful.
With his fantastic season ensuring he would opt out and become a free agent for the third winter in a row, there was no guarantee he would find his way back to the Mets. In the end, a reunion was on the cards. The Mets chapter in Manaea’s career wouldn’t last a year.
As for the rest of this winter, the Mets may have another big rotation addition in store; Corbin Burnes is still around, after all, and Steve Cohen’s spending power remains more formidable than that of any other team owner. The trade market is still active, with top arms such as Luis Castillo and Dylan Cease reportedly available at the right price.
It’s more likely that the next step in the Mets’ winter will refocus attention on their position player group. First and foremost, it starts with free agent Pete Alonso, whose potential landing spots appear to be dwindling by the day, given the recent flurry of transactions involving first basemen.
Pairing one of the best hitters on the planet, Soto, with another MVP candidate, Francisco Lindor, makes the top of the Mets’ lineup as dangerous as any. Rising slugger Mark Vientos and franchise staple Brandon Nimmo also represent stellar bats. Beyond those four, however, questions remain about the strength of the roster as currently constituted – especially if Alonso lands elsewhere.
As important as keeping Manaea is, the decision of whether or not to keep Alonso in Queens appears to be a much more consequential decision.
