The bright light of hope blinded the Buckeye faithful after their team’s victory. Surprise victory 73-69 at that time-No. 2 Purdue, then faded into a faint glow after a decisive defeat in Minnesota set a new program-worst with a 17th straight road loss.
But a break in said sequence in buzzer-beater mode in the state of Michigan has once again – a bit like music icon Billy Joel – turned the lights back on.
The NCAA Tournament isn’t out of the realm of possibility for Ohio State, something that seemed unimaginable just a few weeks ago.
Now, the Buckeyes no longer appear in parentheses since Joe Lunardi of ESPN, Jerry Palm of CBSSports or one of the 100 slices grouped by Bracketmatrix.com Again. But a clear path has emerged to put them in the hunt now that they have three wins in Quadrant 1 with their wins over the Spartans and Boilermakers.
It starts with picking up a Quadrant 2 win at home against Nebraska this Thursday. The Huskers are 20-8 this season and beat the Buckeyes 83-69 in Lincoln earlier this year. Nebraska, however, has been two different teams at home versus on the road this season, going just 2-7 in hostile environments compared to a 17-1 mark in Pinnacle Bank Arena. This is by far the toughest hurdle to clear for Ohio State to close its season on a four-game winning streak and reach 19 wins heading into the Big Ten tournament.
Michigan, dead last in the Big Ten and 8-20 overall, visits Value City Arena on Sunday. A game against Rutgers, tied for 11th in the conference and 14-13 on the year, closes the Buckeyes’ campaign on March 10. This will be another chance for victory in Q2.
A win or two in the conference tournament could then push Ohio State to 20 wins and beyond, with the potential for more resume builders in the first and second quarters in this neutral environment.
If that’s a quest the Buckeyes can accomplish — one that’s much easier said than done — their case for the Big Dance would compare favorably to a handful of other bubble teams.
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KEY FIGURES: OHIO STATE |
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|---|---|
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Global report |
16-12 |
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Home |
11-4 |
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Road |
1-8 |
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T1 |
3-6 |
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T2 |
1-5 |
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NET |
66th |
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SOS |
48th |
Take Ole Miss, one of the last four teams entered, according to Palm and among the top four eliminated according to Lunardi and Bracket Matrix. Ohio State already has a better NET ranking than the Rebels, 66th compared to 75th. Both teams own the same Q1 record at 3-6 and exactly one Q2 win, with Mississippi’s record at 1-2 in Q2 matches.
Where Ole Miss currently holds an advantage is in its overall record, which stands at 19-8. This is where the Buckeyes can close the gap, not only on the Rebels but on all the bubble teams, with a late-season winning streak.
It would also help the Buckeyes’ case against a team like Utah, also Palm’s bottom four and Lunardi’s first four outs. The Utes are 16-11 this season with a 3-7 mark in the first quarter and 5-3 in the second quarter, ranked 54th in the NET.
The strength of Ohio State’s schedule is also a plus. At 48th, only a handful of bubble teams are comparable. Ole Miss and Utah are 66th and 73rd. Drake, one of the next four teams eliminated according to the matrix and Lunardi, is 155th.
Other arguments might be difficult to make, even with a strong end to the season. Seton Hall is a bottom four team in Lunardi and the Brack Matrix aggregation, but with a record of 5-5 in the first quarter and 3-2 in the second quarter with an overall mark of 18-9, the Pirates appear to have a step ahead of the Buckeyes, barring a collapse at the end of the season. Their current NET ranking is 61st and they are 53rd in terms of schedule.
Ohio State also hopes to avoid any surprise runs to a conference championship from teams on the bubble or outside the tournament entirely. Gonzaga is a team to watch in this regard, currently on the bubble as a 22-6 WCC team. Saint Mary’s has all but sealed a bid at the top of the same conference, currently a projected No. 6 seed in the matrix.
That’s a problem to be resolved when the time comes, though, and by the same token the Buckeyes could make a shocking run to a Big Ten title and render this whole conversation moot as an automatic qualifier. However, to have any hope of an at-large bid, winning their final three regular season games is essential.
But that’s just it. There is, once again, hope for this year’s Ohio State team.
