I imagine that when TJ Zeuch was first informed he was going to the Show, he imagined himself on an MLB mound as a starter. However, Zeuch made his debut as a loose pitcher against the Atlanta Braves; in the second round, he called Wilmer Font. He pitched 4 innings, faced 17 batters and allowed 2 earned runs. The latter metric translates to an ERA of 4.50, which is almost equal to the 2019 MLB average ERA for starters (4.53).
There has been debate among fans and media members as to whether Zeuch should have debuted as a traditional starter or as a featured pitcher. I think the Jays’ reasoning for using him in the lead role was so Zeuch could come into the game and not face the top of the Braves order right off the bat. This would allow Zeuch to gradually feel comfortable before embarking on projects like Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie FreemanAnd Josh Donaldson.
While I understand this rationale, I would have asked Zeuch to start the game. I think it is helpful for an athlete to follow their normal routine before participating in a game. Zeuch is a traditional starter that is usually prepared as a starter, a long opener if you will. I would have started Zeuch against Atlanta to see what he could do right off the bat against the second-best offense in the National League (based on wRC+).
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In the movie Researchers, the classic 1956 western, there’s a scene in which a small group of men debate whether or not everyone should continue pursuing the Comanche warriors. Reverend Captain Samuel Johnston Clayton told Ethan Edwards, “Right now we are too much and not enough.” This quote applies to this article: too many topics to cover but not enough words for separate articles.
So let’s get on the phone lines to discuss the MLB June Draft update and also Alex Anthopoulos!
Appellant JP: You recently wrote a article who reviewed the June project files of Mr. Ricciardi and Alex Anthopoulos. In this article, projects from 2002 to 2004 were not included in the data used to score Mr. Ricciardi. If these three versions were included in the sample, would Alex’s predecessor look better than in your initial assessment?
Bob, radio host: Am I detecting a worse accent?
Appellant JP.: No no. I have a cold.
Bob, radio host: All right. Well, you can find the updated information in Table 1. The period 2002-2009 covers all of JP’s June MLB drafts. The inclusion of data from 2002-2004 did not affect my evaluation of JP’s record in the June MLB Draft.
In terms of the number of players drafted and signed with a positive career bWAR, JP ranked 10th during the 2005-2009 period; he was also 10th during the period 2002-2009.
When it comes to total career bWAR of drafted and signed players, JP went from 27th (2005-2009) to 24th (2002-2009) in the rankings. These grades are both in the bottom quartile of his then-GM peers.
JP’s first two selections, in terms of highest career bWAR, were Aaron Hill And Shaun Marcum. Hill ranked 27th among each MLB team’s best bWAR picks during the 2002–2009 period; Marcum ranked 29th among each team’s second bWAR selection. The comparable rankings for the 2005-2009 phase were Yan Gomes (27th) and Jake Marisnick (27th), respectively.
The Blue Jays’ relatively poor MLB June draft record during the 2002-2009 period, as well as that of the 2005-2009 drafts, is consistent with the Ricciardi-led Blue Jays’ philosophy of drafting players of high level and low ceiling. The Blue Jays of that era were pretty good at drafting players that made the Major Leagues; they were relatively bad at recruiting players who became very good contributors to the MLB.
My grade for the JP regime’s MLB June draft record, whether for his entire tenure with the Blue Jays or for the 2005-2009 period, is an “F.” I gave Anthopoulos a “C+” for his MLB June Draft record, which covered the 2010-2015 drafts.
Calling Paul: Thank you for answering my call. Let me first say that I love all the numbers in your articles.
Bob, radio host: THANKS. I assume you are an accountant. Is it correct?
Calling Paul: No no. It’s just that I’ve loved numbers since my elementary school days in Welland. My question is: am I wrong to link the Atlanta Braves’ 2018 playoff berth to the arrival of Alex Anthopoulos?
Bob, radio host: Atlanta’s 2018 division title is a classic case of confusing correlation with causation.
I looked at the 2018 Atlanta Braves bWAR. I then divided each player’s bWAR into two buckets. Bucket A contains the bWAR of players who were part of the Atlanta organization before AA arrived; Bucket B consists of bWAR of players acquired by AA
In 2018, the total bWAR for the Braves was 40.7. Bucket A players produced 37.1 (91%) of the Braves’ total bWAR. If you add the 48 games that would have been won by replacement-level players at the 37.1 level, that 85.1 win total would have secured the 2018 National League East Division title for the Braves.
In the 2019 season thus far (September 2), players acquired by AA have produced a bWAR of 9.2. The biggest contributor is Donaldson with his bWAR of 4.9; the next one is Dallas Keuchel’s 1.6. Of the 32.7 total bWAR generated by the 2019 Braves to date, 28% has been provided by players acquired by AA.
In my opinion, Anthopoulos has finally become a good general manager for the Blue Jays. His impact on the Braves will be felt more and more in the post-2018 seasons than in the first.
Thanks for the calls.
Following. Blue Jays: Will they lose 100 games this season?. dark
“I watch a lot of baseball on the radio.”
Gerald R. Ford
