The 2025-26 offseason had times where it moved quickly, like the domino effect we saw early on with the high-leverage reliever market. But we’ve also seen things drag on, and that’s how things have played out over the last few weeks. As we’re just days into the new year, it’s the starting pitching market that’s moving much more slowly than the rest.
The day before Thanksgiving, the Toronto Blue Jays caused a sensation, signing right-hander Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract. Toronto then added right-hander Cody Ponce, who returns to the United States after a successful tenure with the KBO.
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But beyond Cease and Ponce, we’ve seen little movement for the starting pitchers. Most of the notable pitching action so far has involved teams retaining their starters, with Shane Bieber opting for the Blue Jays and Shota Imanaga and Brandon Woodruff accepting qualifying offers from the Cubs and Brewers, respectively.
Two other names returning to their old stomping grounds are Michael King, who re-signed with the Padres on a three-year, $75 million deal, and Merrill Kelly, who returned to the Diamondbacks on a two-year, $40 million deal.
But with December only a few days away, the majority of the top starting pitchers in this free agent class – names such as Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Zac Gallen and Tatsuya Imai – are still available. And while teams are interested and committed to these players, they are clearly taking their time.
The lack of movement in the starting pitcher market could be due to a number of reasons.
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The first is that teams want to exhaust all their options on the trade market before making the financial commitment to acquire a top free agent. If teams can move potential capital to add someone like Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera or Washington Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore instead of spending $100-200 million to sign Suárez or Valdez, many will see that as a win.
We’ve seen a few trades of this nature before, with the Boston Red Sox acquiring Johan Oviedo and Sonny Gray, the Houston Astros acquiring Mike Burrows, and the Baltimore Orioles paying a significant prospect price to acquire three years of Shane Baz.
Meanwhile, for teams looking for the best of the best options, Tarik Skubal remains a tempting possibility. While the Tigers would require a haul to move their ace, there’s no denying that any team with both the prospect capital and starting pitching need would be very interested – even for a one-year rental.
The other factor looming in the background of this year’s offseason is the uncertainty of what lies ahead after next season, with a potential lockout on the horizon once the collective bargaining agreement expires. With teams unsure of what the future holds, some might try to protect themselves by avoiding having too many multi-year deals in the works after 2026.
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Despite this, the next starting domino to fall will likely be Imai, whose release window expires at 5 p.m. ET on January 2. The 27-year-old Japanese right-hander is considered one of the best starters available, and his signing will likely spur some movement in the markets for Suárez and Valdez, as well as others like Gallen, Lucas Giolito and Nick Martinez.
Many contending teams still need to start pitching, including the Cubs, Mets and Giants, so this logjam will eventually end. As the calendar approaches January, especially with Imai’s deadline looming, expect the action in the starting pitching market to pick up.
After all, pitchers only have about seven weeks left before spring training begins.
