Expanding the men’s NCAA Tournament wouldn’t be a good move for women’s March Madness.
The numbers don’t add up, although it doesn’t matter.
If the men’s peloton expands to 72 or 76 teams, as was a topic of conversation last a few monthsit would almost be a foregone conclusion that the women’s field would also develop for reasons of equity. While it’s doubtful that the men’s tournament is ready to expand, it seems clear that the women’s March Madness is not. It’s not ready from a competitive or financial point of view.
Consider this: The first round of this year’s women’s tournament featured a near-record number of blowouts and uncompetitive matches; six teams scored more than 100 points in the first two days; there were a handful of 50-point routs; and for the first time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1994, no team ranked 11 or worse advanced to the second round.
Coaches, however, have mixed feelings about the expansion.
For some, it depends on who gets extra spots.
“Expand the tournament? Who doesn’t look forward to March to see six more teams, 4-12 in their league, play for the national championship,” UConn coach Geno Auriemma joked sarcastically.
He then warmed to the idea if this gave more mid-tier teams a chance.
“If that were to be the case, hey, we want to add 32 more teams. 20 of those 32 will be mid-majors that have had good years, let’s let them in,” he said. “Do you really think this is going to happen? No,” adding that if it were to happen, “I would be all for it.”
Mississippi State coach Sam Purcell wouldn’t mind seeing more teams enter. His Bulldogs were on the outside looking in last year, finding themselves on the wrong side of the bubble. This year, they entered after navigating a competitive Southeast Conference schedule.
“I think there are a lot of good teams that didn’t make the cut,” he said. “Obviously, I’m one of those teams that is always behind because of how difficult my conference is, especially as we continue to add stronger members.”
Of course, there are procedural steps to follow before anything happens. For example, if the NCAA were to expand the 2026 tournament, it would have to do so by this spring. For this to even be considered, the men’s or women’s basketball selection committee would have to make the recommendation. Then it would need approval from the Division I board of directors.
And if all the dominoes fall into place, the risk of weakening competition and diluting profits looms on the horizon.
This year, 37 of the 68 teams came from the Power Four conferences. The Ivy League was the only other conference to receive more than two offers. The first four teams excluded from the field were Virginia Tech, James Madison, Saint Joseph’s and Colorado; two other power conference schools and two mid-majors.
Here’s the money.
This year’s NCAA Tournament women’s teams received “units” — financial incentives for tournament participation — for the first time. Adding teams without adding more money from the NCAA’s television partner, ESPN, would reduce the value of those financial units for each team. There is no chance that the women’s or men’s tournament will grow if its unit value decreases.
Adding teams would also increase the NCAA’s costs, which could impact charter flights, hotels, buses, food and other expenses associated with tournament teams that are paid by the sport’s governing body.
Schools like William & Mary and Columbia both participated in the simulation games. Both were victorious and earned an additional $250,000 for their conferences over the next three years from financial units. Add four to eight more teams and the value of these units would decrease.
Instead of expanding the field, reseeding it might be a more viable option. The NCAA could create brackets allowing 16 seeds to compete in more play-in games, leading to more competitive first-round matchups and better money distribution. As it stands, two of the four play-in games involve 16 seeds.
This year, 16th-seeded Southern beat UC San Diego by 12 and William & Mary, another 16th seed, won by six in its matchup.
In contrast, the average margin of victory in first-round matches between the No. 1 seeds and the 16 seeds was 47 points. In the history of the women’s tournament, Harvard is the only 16 seed to beat the No. 1 seed when the Crimson beat Stanford in 1998.
Even then, there were extenuating circumstances: The Cardinal had several injured players and no one to contain Allison Feaster, a three-time Ivy League Player of the Year who was the fifth overall pick in the 1998 WNBA. Now the vice president of team operations and organizational growth for the Boston Celtics, she is also the mother of current UConn freshman Sarah Strong.
With the women’s tournament enjoying growing popularity and thriving financially, perhaps it seems time to branch out. But the numbers just don’t add up, on or off the field.
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On Basketball analyzes the most important topics in college or professional basketball.
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AP Sports Writer Beth Harris and freelancer Jim Fuller contributed to this story.
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