The Patriots are one of five teams with three wins, but they own the tiebreaker on all of them due to their worst strength of schedule. There are three teams two wins ahead of the Patriots in the draft order – the Jaguars, Raiders and Giants – and the only way New England can move up in the order (assuming they don’t win not another match) is at least one of these three teams wins another match.
So if the Patriots need help, where could that help come from? Here’s a breakdown of the remaining schedules for the five teams with the best chance of landing the No. 1 pick, according to the ESPN FPI model.
New England Patriots
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Week 14: Bye
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Week 15: to the Arizona Cardinals
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Week 16: at Buffalo Bills
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Week 17: against the Los Angeles Chargers
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Week 18: against the Buffalo Bills
The Patriots have the toughest remaining schedule in the league, based on their upcoming opponents’ combined winning percentage of .708. The Bills have already won the AFC East for a fifth straight season, but their Week 18 matchup in Foxboro could still matter if the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed is on the line. Buffalo is one game behind Kansas City in the race for the top seed.
The Cardinals are a formidable team with a dual-threat quarterback in Kyle Murray. The Patriots have struggled with this type of QB in recent years. The Chargers have been one of the most improved teams in the league during Jim Harbaugh’s first season as head coach.
Perhaps the Patriots could beat the Chargers or Cardinals if they played penalty- and turnover-free football, although that seems unlikely given the number of self-inflicted errors New England has made during the last matches.
It’s probably fair to assume the Patriots won’t win another game, which would set them up for back-to-back seasons of four wins or fewer. This didn’t happen to the Patriots in four years, from 1967-1970.
Jacksonville Jaguars
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Week 14: to the Tennessee Titans
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Week 15: against the New York Jets
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Week 16: to the Las Vegas Raiders
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Week 17: against the Tennessee Titans
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Week 18: with the Indianapolis Colts
The Jaguars have the easiest remaining schedule in the league, so even though they only won two games, there’s a good chance that Jacksonville will pick up at least one more win before the end of the season.
The biggest will take place in Week 16 against the Raiders. The Jaguars and Raiders currently have two wins, and unless this head-to-head ends in a tie, it’s likely the Patriots move ahead of the winner of this game in the draft order.
The best-case scenario for the Patriots would be for the Jaguars to win two of their final five games. It’s certainly possible, especially with the Jaguars playing the Titans 3-9 twice.
Las Vegas Raiders
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Week 14: to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Week 15: against the Atlanta Falcons
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Week 16: against the Jacksonville Jaguars
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Week 17: to the New Orleans Saints
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Week 18: against the Los Angeles Chargers
The Raiders have the ninth-easiest remaining schedule. Only two of their last five games are against teams currently in the playoffs, and one of them is the 6-6 Atlanta Falcons atop the NFC South. The other is the Chargers, who may not have much to play for in Week 18.
The Raiders nearly beat the Chiefs on Black Friday, but lost 19-17 on the road. They always play hard, and rookie tight end Brock Bowers has been nearly unstoppable as of late.
But this team has a poor roster and absolutely no incentive to win games. Las Vegas needs a franchise quarterback, and getting a high draft pick would help the most in that regard.
New York Giants
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Week 14: against the New Orleans Saints
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Week 15: against the Baltimore Ravens
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Week 16: to the Atlanta Falcons
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Week 17: against the Indianapolis Colts
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Week 18: to the Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants are a mess and their quarterback situation is terrible. The best-case scenario for the Giants is to get one of the top QB prospects in the draft, whether it’s Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward or someone else. The Giants have scored more than 20 points in just one of their last six games.
New York has a fairly busy remaining schedule. The Ravens, Falcons, Colts and Eagles are all in the playoff race. And even the Saints have been competitive in many of their games despite going 4-8.
A strong case could be made for the Giants not winning another game, which wouldn’t be good for the Patriots.
Carolina Panthers
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Week 14: to the Philadelphia Eagles
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Week 15: against the Dallas Cowboys
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Week 16: against the Arizona Cardinals
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Week 17: to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Week 18: to the Atlanta Falcons
The Panthers don’t have an easy remaining schedule. Four of their last five opponents are still in the playoff race.
However, the Panthers have been playing much better lately. Carolina started 1-7, then won two games in a row. The Panthers have lost their last two games, but they easily could have won both. They lost 30-27 to the Chiefs in Week 12 and 26-23 in overtime to the Buccaneers last weekend.
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has also made huge strides in recent weeks and hasn’t thrown an interception in three straight games.
The chances of the Panthers winning again aren’t great, but division games are usually competitive and they close out the season with two of those matchups.
