What is a leader? Do they still exist? What are they doing? In a nearly positionless NBA, it’s doubtful that lead guards matter when so many players on the court can play and run an offensive set. As teams become larger and more versatile, the importance of a floor general and primary ball handler has become more obscure to NBA front offices.
Yet you look around NBA Playoffs and see Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton, Jamaal Murray, Kyrie Irving and Mike Conley Jr. contribute to the victory. Maybe we’ve been thinking too much about the list-building equation. What if, and hear me out here, decades of basketball featuring the point guard in a crucial role indicated that the position should not be treated as an afterthought.
THE San Antonio Spurs should be the illustration of what a team looks like without a primary ball handler. For 25 games, they tried to play Jeremy Sochan as a non-traditional point guard/forward hybrid. The result was the franchise’s worst losing streak. Tre Jones has filled the position admirably, but profiles as a high-end backup moving forward. Addressing the point guard position is a priority for San Antonio this offseason. If they are looking for a true floor general with the potential to become something more, Nikola Topić should be on their radar.
Topić is one of the most interesting prospects of 2024 NBA Draft. The 6-foot-6 point guard stood out for Mega MIS in the Adriatic League, or ABA (where Nikola Jokic plays from 2012 to 2015.) He played so well in the 2023-24 season that he was picked up by KK Crvena Zvezda, a team that plays in the ABA and EuroLeague, meaning Topić would play with better talents. A knee injury kept him out for three months, meaning we didn’t see him play much for his new team.
Since returning from injury, Red Star have brought Topić off the bench. He struggled to get back into peak form. In his last game against his former team, Mega, Topić had 4 points and 3 assists in just 12 minutes. Worse still, Topić aggravated his knee injury on Monday. ESPN reported On Tuesday, Topić was diagnosed with a knee sprain, which allowed him to avoid serious injury. Still, the non-contact injury could raise red flags around Topić’s medicals leading to the idiot.
As there hasn’t been much recording of Topić with Crvena Zvezda, the stats and films in this profile will mainly come from his time with Mega.
Nikola Topić, 6-foot-6 goalkeeper, KK Crvena Zvezda
ABA Statistics (Mega) 2023-2024: 18.4 points, 7.1 assists, 1.0 steal, 52.3% FG, 25.9% 3PT, 85.5% FT, 67.9% EFG
Player Comparison: Goran Dragic, Milos Teodosić
Strengths
Topić wowed scouts with his passing ability. He is the best passer in the 2024 Draft class. Whether in transition, coming out of the pick and roll, or simply diving and kicking, the Serbian guard is adept at getting the ball to his teammates. Check out this pass from Mega’s scrimmage with USC last summer.
Digging into the Nikola Topic tape and starting with a game he played against USC and Isaiah Collier this summer.
This part of the topic almost broke my brain. I’m pretty sure he doesn’t see the corner lift until he’s already in the air. And straight into the shooting pocket. Just sick. pic.twitter.com/otFiM3Nbob
– Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) October 23, 2023
He has extreme patience and the vision to find open teammates. He is a fundamental passer who can throw the ball with either hand exactly where the scorers need it. He is capable of making post-entry passes from the top of the key and the wings. His instincts are really advanced for an 18 year old.
Nikola Topic being an impressive passer at 6’6″ with his speed and ability to get into the paint is a big reason why he is such an intriguing prospect.
Here’s a video of her best assists so far this season and she also shows her comfort passing with both hands. pic.twitter.com/wZOzUcaavZ
-Zach Milner (@ZachMilner13) December 27, 2023
Where Topić really shines is in the pick and roll. He averages 1.02 points per possession in action, with a success rate of 55% on shots coming from the PnR. His processing ability in this action is special for such a young player. He plays with a lot of pace as a ball handler. Topić has a quick step and can go down the hill with real momentum, but he is also able to slow down and find the open man. If a defense blitzes, he has the opportunity to extend the play and pass the ball to a teammate. He won’t punish many defenses in coverage with his shooting, but he reads the defense very well, making jump passes over the top or finding an angle for the roll. In many ways his treatment in the PnR reminds me of an older Goran Dragic or his Red Star teammate Milos Teodosić.
Pairing that feel for the game with his frame makes him an exciting prospect. At 6-foot-6 with long arms, Topić will be able to create angles that other point guards can’t. His north-south speed combined with his soft touch at the rim also makes him a scoring threat. With his long arms, he will often make layups at the end of quick runs to the rim. He is not very explosive vertically, but his length makes up for this deficit a little.
Weaknesses
Topić’s frame and feel for the game make him one of the top 5 prospects in the 2024 class. That’s not to say the goaltender is without flaws. Topić is a poor three-point shooter who hasn’t shot better than 30% from deep at any level of professional play. His release point is inconsistent and he has a strange jumper that goes in two different directions. Slow down Topić’s release and you’ll notice he pulls the ball well in front of his face while leaning back.
There is room for optimism around Topić’s jumper. He is a career 87.1% shooter from the free throw line and displays excellent touch around the basket. There are times when Topić nails an impressive pull-up three when defenders go under a screen. All of these flashes indicate that Topić has the potential to become a deep threat eventually, but there are some obvious mechanical issues that the 18-year-old guard needs to resolve before he gets there.
This problem with his jump shot is exacerbated by his limited offensive repertoire. It is rare to see Topić finish a game from mid-range. He doesn’t do a lot of pull-ups and hasn’t shown much of a floater or runner in the paint. It’s pretty much go to the basket or nothing for him right now. This could be a problem against NBA defenses that are already prone to putting paint on San Antonio.
Off the ball, Topić is used to standing and waiting to get it. As smart as he is with the ball in his hands, he didn’t show as much cutting and ball movement as smart players tend to do well. Combine that with his poor three-point shooting (33% on open C&S jumpers) and you’ll start to wonder what Topić’s role is without the ball in his hands.
One has to wonder if this lack of off-ball urgency comes from a conditioning issue. Topić seems to float in and out of games on both the defensive and offensive end. When he locks down defensively, he can stay with ball handlers and make plays on the ball. He locked down some of USC’s fastest guards last summer. Other times he gets blown away because he doesn’t close properly or is in a defensive position. Topić knows where to be defensively with the ball, but is often too slow to get into position to play. He hesitates to be physical on defense and almost never grabs a 50-50 ball or sticks his nose into a tough play.
Topić has injury problems in addition to his weaknesses on the pitch. The team that recruits him will have to ensure that his knee is healthy. He already seemed lacking in brilliance after the first knee injury. If he is unable to recoup some of that after repeated injuries to the same knee, it could significantly harm his game.
Adjusting the spurs
Of all the teams that could be patient with Topić’s injuries, it would be San Antonio. They have two lottery picks, plenty of upside, and ample space to acquire a point guard this summer. Jones is still an effective matchmaker in a worst-case scenario. If his knee is a real problem, they could sign Topić, let him rehab for a year, then play him in the 2025-2026 season. They would have to feel really comfortable with Topić’s medical exams for this scenario to come true. The most important question concerns his place in San Antonio.
Yes, the Spurs need a point guard, but what kind lead guard do they need? San Antonio wants the ball in Wembanyama’s hands as much as possible. Do they really need a goalkeeper whose best offensive impact comes with the ball in his hands? What if Topić never shoots the ball from deep effectively? The Spurs can’t afford to have another player that opposing teams don’t have to respect while Wembanyama has the ball in half court.
If San Antonio selects Topić, they will be betting that he can become a good shooter and learn to play with the ball in their system. If that happens, he and Wembanyama would become one of the most fun PnR duos in the NBA. The combination of their passing and basketball IQ would only elevate the team around them. Topić’s downhill driving ability would add a nice wrinkle to a Spurs offense that often lacks pressure at the rim.
If he reaches his peak, he will fit in well with the Spurs’ current roster and could be a 10-point, 10-assist player on a nightly basis. There are too many “ifs” to Topić’s game for him to be a slam dunk pick for San Antonio. If Topić doesn’t become a shooter, can’t stay healthy, and doesn’t learn to be more active without the ball in his hands, he could end up being someone the Spurs regret taking among the top 10 first.
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