The Boston Celtics are in a very good position at the halfway point of the 2023-24 NBA season, but the work is far from done.
Our friends at Strat-O-Matic simulated the entire 2023-24 NBA season and playoffs in October.
The results were interesting and included the Celtics winning 64 games and ultimately defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves in the 2024 NBA Finals. Now that we’re halfway through the campaign, we asked Strat-O-Matic to do a new simulation using statistics and rankings from Thursday morning.
How have the results changed? Will the Celtics still hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June?
Read below for the updated simulation.
Celtics move into first place in regular season
The Celtics entered Friday with a 32-9 record in 41 games, good enough for the best record in the league and a four-game lead over the second-place Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference standings.
Boston extends its final advantage over the Bucks to seven games in our simulation of the rest of the season. The Celtics finish with a 64-18 record, which is Strat-O-Matic’s accurate win-loss projection in its preseason simulation. Only three teams in Celtics history – the 1972-73, 1985-86 and 2007-08 squads – have won more than 64 games, so this group would rank among the franchise’s best, at least in terms of season regular.
The Celtics were the only team in our simulation to finish with 60 wins or more. The Minnesota Timberwolves ranked first in the Western Conference with a 58-24 record.
One of the most surprising results of this simulation is that LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers miss the playoffs. The Dallas Mavericks also fail to make the playoffs, which is interesting given their star power with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
The Thunder reached the 50-win mark for the first time since 2015-16, which was Kevin Durant’s final season with the franchise before leaving to join the Golden State Warriors in free agency that summer.
Another playoff showdown against the Bucks
The Celtics opened the playoffs against the Orlando Magic in the No. 1 vs. No. 8 game in the East. This is the fourth playoff series between these teams and the first since the Celtics defeated the Magic in six games in the 2010 Eastern Conference Finals. Boston wasted no time eliminating Orlando in our simulation . The series ended in four games, giving the C’s their fourth first-round sweep in the last six years.
The next series on the Celtics’ return to the Finals came against the New York Knicks in the second round. The last time the C’s faced the Knicks in the conference semifinals or later was 1984, when Boston needed a Game 7 to eliminate New York. This series required less work for the C’s, as they beat the Knicks in just five games in our simulation. As a result, the Celtics advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals for the third straight campaign.
The Celtics’ final obstacle in the East was the Bucks. It was the fourth time in the last seven seasons that these teams met in the playoffs. However, this is the first Eastern Conference Finals game featuring these teams since 1986. The Celtics advanced to the NBA Finals with a Game 7 win over the Bucks at TD Garden. This is the Celtics’ third Game 7 win over the Bucks since the start of the 2018 playoffs.
The Thunder, third seed in the Western Conference, reached their second NBA Finals in their history by eliminating the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round (six games), the Sacramento Kings in the conference semifinals (seven games) and the Minnesota Timberwolves in the conference finals (seven games).
Mission accomplished
The Celtics played in their second NBA Finals led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The first time didn’t go as planned as the Golden State Warriors won the 2022 Finals in six games as Boston held a 2-1 series lead after a Game 3 win.
This series had a different outcome.
The Celtics swept the young and inexperienced Thunder to win their 18th championship – putting them ahead of rivals the Los Angeles Lakers for the most in league history – and their first since 2008.
The C’s made 22 NBA Finals before this season, and the only time they swept a team was against the St. Louis Hawks in 1958-59.
