With the 2023 season behind us and the Hot Stove ready to burn, we take a close look at some of the hottest players eligible for free agency.
Name: Shohei Ohtani
Position: DH/RHP
Team: Los Angeles Angels
Age (as of opening day 2024): 29
Statistics 2023: .304/.412/.654, 44 HR, 95 RBI, 102 R, 184 OPS+
10-5, 3.14 ERA, 132 IP, 167 K, 1.061 WHIP, 142 ERA+
Since arriving in the Majors in 2018, Ohtani has challenged our perception of what a baseball player could accomplish. An All-Star slugger at the plate, an All-Star pitcher on the mound and an attraction like we’ve never seen, Ohtani has proven to be a true unicorn in the game, achieving things many never thought possible.
This winter was destined to be all about Ohtani, whose free agency was poised to break contract records by an astonishing amount. After undergoing his second Tommy John surgery in September, however, Ohtani faces a future that will not include pitching in 2024, although he is expected to resume his two-way game starting in 2025.
Even after surgery, Ohtani’s offensive prowess alone makes him the breakout free agent of the offseason, worthy of an unprecedented contract. How many teams will pitch for the American League’s presumptive Most Valuable Player? We’re about to find out.
POTENTIAL PRESIDENTS (listed alphabetically)
ANGELS
The Angels opted not to trade Ohtani before last summer’s trade deadline, a sign that Los Angeles would ultimately try to keep its superstar. General Manager Perry Minasian said that re-signing Ohtani is club’s top priority, but will the Angels spend what it takes to keep him given the other holes on the roster that need to be filled this offseason? Ohtani emphasized his desire to win, so the Angels’ decision to trade for help with the goal of making the playoffs was a worthwhile gamble, even if it ultimately backfired. The only certainty? The Angels will extend a qualifying offer to Ohtani, ensuring them draft compensation if he signs elsewhere.
DODGERS
The Dodgers spent most of last winter watching other teams make big plays in free agency, leading many to believe they were simply playing with their nuts – or in this case , their free agent dollars – to make a big run at Ohtani this winter. We know Ohtani is comfortable in Southern California, but would he welcome a move 30 miles north of I-5 to play at Dodger Stadium? Adding Ohtani to a lineup that already includes Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman would make an already dangerous Dodgers team even more deadly.
GIANTS
The Giants took big hits against top free agents last winter, only to see Aaron Judge return to the Yankees and a physical issue squash Carlos Correa’s arrival in San Francisco. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Giants attempt to sign Ohtani, who would provide the impact bat the club was looking for in Judge, while also adding a “face of the franchise” that has been missing since Buster Posey retired. Signing Ohtani would not only increase the Giants’ chances of winning the National League West, but would also prevent the slugger from signing with the rival Dodgers.
SAILORS
Sailors fans made his first pitch to Ohtani during the All-Star Game, launching into a spontaneous “Come to Seattle!” sing during each of his appearances on set. Will the Mariners get involved in the Ohtani sweepstakes? Seattle has $80 million per year for Julio RodrĂguez, Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray and JP Crawford, but if the Mariners decide to go all-in on Ohtani, it’s not unreasonable to think they could do so.
MET
Despite last summer’s late Trade Deadline sale that saw the Mets shed Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, among others, New York will likely jump into free agency with both feet in an attempt to return to the postseason. Owner Steve Cohen has the financial means to pay Ohtani whatever he wants, even though the Mets are reportedly in love with pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which will likely cost more than $200 million once it is allocated. It’s unclear whether Ohtani prefers to stay on the West Coast, as some have speculated, but if the Mets want him bad enough, it’s hard to imagine anyone outbidding Cohen.
PADRES
Why the Padres? Have you been paying attention? San Diego has been one of the most aggressive teams in the league in recent years, so excluding general manager AJ Preller from anything is generally a foolish exercise. The Padres have over $210 million committed to their payroll for 2024, but what happens if they trade Juan Soto, who is expected to earn a raise of more than $30 million in his final year of arbitration? San Diego seems far away, but when it comes to Preller and the Padres, anything is possible.
RANGERS
The Mariners aren’t the only AL West rival that could lure Ohtani away from the Angels. Texas has been a major player in free agency over the past two offseasons, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien ahead of the 2022 season and then adding Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi last winter. Will the World Series champions make three straight spends? The Rangers have committed about $200 million in payroll for 2024, although they have more than $60 million coming off the books, with another $56 million expected to be waived after next season. Win the the first title of the franchise could quell the need to recruit Ohtani, although his addition could make the Rangers the favorites to become the sport’s first repeat champions since 2000.
THE REDS
With three bottom spots in the AL East in the last four years, Boston is expected to make a splash this winter, and the Red Sox have already been considered by some to have a good chance of landing Ohtani. The Sox signed Masataka Yoshida from Japan last offseason, a move that paid off with a strong rookie campaign from the outfielder/DH. Hall of Fame and Red Sox legend Pedro Martinez even recently wondered about Ohtani, pushing Boston to sign the superstar. new director of baseball Craig Breslow seems more likely to focus on improving the pitching staff this winter — something Ohtani wouldn’t be able to do until at least 2025.
SCOUT’S POINT
“A generational talent who is a superstar as a hitter and pitcher, his free agency is unlike anything we’ve ever seen. Due to his injury, the value on the mound should be ignored, not only because he won’t contribute in that aspect next year, but also because of the longer-term risk associated with returning from a second surgery at UCL. Because contributions on the mound are harder to project, I think most teams will have to focus their investment metrics on Ohtani the hitter, where his high-end strength makes him a unique player who can hit and hit for get power. in the middle of a championship lineup.
“Shohei is a tremendous athlete who clearly takes care of his body and should age well. The only concern from an offensive standpoint is that there is some zone expansion and swings/misses at times, but that is easily offset by high-end power production. DH’s contributions alone are special enough to be considered for a mega-deal, but factor in the interest from big-market clubs and the potential impact on the mound once he’s fully healthy and who knows how far owners might be willing to go to add a future Hall of Famer.
BUYER BEWARE
This is the part where we point out a flaw in the free agent game. Uh. RIGHT. Sure, Ohtani was in the bottom 12th percentile in whiff rate last season and his strikeout rate was in the bottom third of the league, but are we really going to nitpick those stats? If there’s anything that makes potential suitors hesitant to shell out big money for Ohtani, it’s that he’s had two Tommy John surgeries in five years. Ohtani plans to return to the mound in 2025, but until he’s back mowing down opposing hitters, it will be questionable whether he can return to his dominant form.
FOR ASSEMBLY OF COMP
There’s no way to find a good lineup for Ohtani, who does things no player has ever done before. Based on his offense alone, Ohtani estimates he’s worth at least as much as Judge, who signed a nine-year, $360 million contract to return to the Yankees last winter. Whether Ohtani — who is a year younger than Judge when he hit free agency — can return to his two-way dominance remains to be seen, but potential suitors will likely have to pay him like it’s a foregone conclusion. This contract should be unlike any other we’ve seen – or likely will see again anytime soon.
