Prior to this season, Sam Darnold’s strongest contribution to the NFL canon was “see ghosts“.
Darnold was one of several quarterbacks selected early in the first round to go with the New York Jets. After leaving Florham Park, he alternated between backup and starter roles in Carolina and San Francisco before ending up in Minnesota. He now leads one of the hottest teams in the NFL. As injuries and attrition continue to bring the Lions to their knees, the Vikings make a late push for the NFC’s No. 1 seed — and potentially home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
It’s easy to look at Minnesota’s success and point in every direction other than Darnold. You can list Brian Flores’ wacky defense, Justin Jefferson, a solid offensive line, and Kevin O’Connell’s offensive system before hitting the quarterback that makes it all sing. But the reality is that Darnold played like a top-10 quarterback this season. Despite his breakout year, it’s unclear where he’ll play next season.
Darnold was brought to Minnesota to serve as a bridge to the next generation. The Vikings signed the veteran on a one-year deal worth $10 million before selecting JJ McCarthy No. 10 overall in the last draft. But McCarthy’s preseason injury gave Darnold a chance to take ownership of the team, and in 15 weeks, he produced at a historic rate. Darnold is just the third quarterback in NFL history to reach 3,500 passing yards, 29 touchdown passes and a 100+ passer rating in his first 14 games with one team.
Dig beneath the bloopers and the promise of what Darnold could He had become a presence in New York, Carolina and San Francisco: a gun-toting quarterback who could throw the ball all over the field. But could anyone have imagined Thisa franchise-caliber quarterback who elevates everyone around him?
Given his surroundings, it’s easy to overlook Darnold’s individual development. He works with one of the best offensive minds in the sport, a star-filled receiving corps, a deadly running game and a reliable tight end. Early in the season, Darnold was aided by the Vikings’ scheme and a collection of the league’s best tackles. In recent weeks, however, Darnold has been bombarded, with the Vikings regularly conceding pressure rates above 40%. But outside of two miscues Monday night against the Bears, Darnold’s play has improved as his offensive line has gotten farther away.
The Darnold of 2024 is not the same player he was with the Jets. He has evolved. Darnold’s accuracy has improved. He plays games on the move. He’s making tight throws at a league-leading clip. While he was once the most panicked quarterback in the league, he has found a new sense of calm with the Vikings. In New York, Darnold buckled under pressure and turtled on a blitz. These days, Darnold is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when the pocket collapses. He is fifth in the league in “accuracy plus” this season when under pressure, a measure of how often he opens his target. That’s behind only CJ Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, according to Pro Football Focus.
Back when he was seeing ghosts, defenses attacked Darnold by tagging an extra player in the pass rush and scrambling their coverage on the backfield. Pairing extra heat with a shaky defensive rotation muddied the quarterback’s decision-making. In his three unhappy seasons with the Jets, Darnold threw 39 interceptions, including 23 against the blitz. He had trouble seeing the field and threw panicked throws into crowded areas.
The same decisions about what he thinks have been punctuated this season as well. He is up to 11 interceptions and 18 turnover-worthy plays in 14 starts. But much of the ugliness was removed from his game. He overcame pressure as well as any quarterback in the league, getting rid of the ball in rhythm and showing a knack for creating plays on the fly . And against the blitz, Darnold has made money this year. When defenses throw five or more passers this season, Darnold has completed 73 percent of his passes, averaging 12.2 yards per attempt and has thrown 12 touchdowns to zero interceptions. This season, his turnovers have largely been due to erratic decisions outside the pocket or trusting his receivers to recover 50-50 balls.
The idea of Darnold being the one to gag a match is also a thing of the past. When the matches are close, he is improving. If you check off the characteristics of a franchise beginner, it runs down the list.
What we saw this season was not a quarterback finally realizing his potential, but a player who redefined his game.
His growth makes Darnold the most intriguing free agent this offseason. Is the rest of the league buying his transformation from an error-strewn backup to a legitimate starter? Is it Ryan Fitzpatrick or Geno Smith? We will know soon.
Darnold’s success coupled with McCarthy’s injury has left the Vikings with a fascinating dilemma: Will they re-sign Darnold to a blockbuster contract or begin the transition to McCarthy and let Darnold go?
When Darnold hits the open market, the benchmark for his next contract will likely be Baker Mayfield’s deal with the Bucs. Like Darnold, Mayfield was a former first-round pick who caught fire at his original position before reinvigorating his career elsewhere. In Tampa, Mayfield showed his credentials as a starter on a one-year deal and was rewarded with a three-year, $100 million contract from the Bucs. But Mayfield didn’t join an organization that had already chosen his heir apparent.
If Mayfield’s contract East Starting point for negotiations for Darnold, can the Vikings afford to commit that much money to him when McCarthy is already on the books? If not, how long will Darnold’s list of other suitors be?
This is where things get murky. A sneaky scenario for this upcoming offseason is that many teams in need of a quarterback have little wiggle room to acquire an established veteran, or even take a chance on a draft pick. Most teams in the league have either a long-term starter or a young quarterback they believe in. Even a team like Carolina, which looked like a possible destination for the quarterback midway through the season, saw enough of Bryce Young this season to enter next year with the former No. 1 overall pick as guaranteed team starter.
Three teams with a pressing need for a quarterback (the Saints, Browns and Jets) either have veterans in place or are stuck in salary cap hell. Even if the Jets can get around the cap to create enough cap space to make Darnold an offer, it’s unlikely he’ll want to return to the franchise that ran him out of town.
That leaves a short list of potential destinations: the Raiders, Giants and Titans. Maybe the Colts will be interested if they make fun of Anthony Richardson (again). Matthew Stafford could retire at the end of the season, freeing up a clean landing spot for Darnold with the Rams. But if Stafford returns and the Colts choose to trust the process, Darnold will be left with just three plausible suitors outside of Minnesota.
These three franchises will also look to the draft to find their quarterback of the future. Like the Vikings last offseason, they will likely try to pair this rookie with a veteran in a cheap deal to guide the rookie through his first season. Will Darnold be interested in putting himself in the same situation two seasons in a row? If he chooses to leave Minnesota, it will surely be for a place where he will be the guaranteed starter. If not, why leave Minnesota? In this scenario, it would make more sense for Darnold to return, even if it means taking a discount. McCarthy will still be essentially a rookie next year and returning from a knee injury. Darnold could retain his starting role until the Vikings feel McCarthy is the best option.
This presents another possibility: What if Darnold is just as good moving forward, as long as he plays in O’Connell’s system? Would the Vikings be willing to trade McCarthy a year later, without seeing him play for a moment, if Darnold continues to produce in the top 10? Or would they try to emulate the Packers model, viewing McCarthy as the Jordan Love to Darnold’s Aaron Rodgers (don’t laugh)?
The answers to these questions will start to come this offseason. But Darnold has proven himself to be an entry-level quarterback who can thrive in the right ecosystem. He showed some new perspectives in his game, which should encourage another franchise that his game will translate elsewhere.
Whether he moves or not may depend on how the Vikings close out the season. If Darnold throws up a playoff game, the Vikings might decide it’s time for McCarthy. But there’s a real chance that Darnold and the Vikings will host the Lombardi in February. Whether they win a championship or fail, what follows will be one of the most fascinating quarterback dilemmas in recent league history.
