Nikola Topic is a player the Spurs could sign in the lottery (Photo via Twitter)
The San Antonio Spurs must be thrilled with the way the ping pong balls bounced on Sunday afternoon. First, the Spurs learned that the Toronto Raptors had failed in the draft and therefore owed San Antonio the No. 8 pick. Then, Spurs successfully climbed to fourth place.
It was one of the best possible results for San Antonio. Their chances of acquiring the Raptors’ pick and also landing in the top four were only about 20%.
As I wrote yesterday, the main problem with the 2024 NBA Draft is that it doesn’t have the high-end talent that would typically fill the top three spots in most drafts. Picking fourth in a draft with no real top three is pretty darn optimal. At No. 4, the Spurs should have a solid lottery prospect who doesn’t carry the price (or burden) of a first-round pick.
Regarding the Raptors’ pick, the Spurs might have hoped that the basketball gods would thread another needle for the good guys and give San Antonio a lottery pick in a better draft. But I really like the way things turned out. When you’re owed a top-six protected pick, getting the eighth pick is undeniably excellent. Maybe it could have been even better in theoretical scenarios, but there were also paths to the Toronto pick losing much (or all) of its value. At No. 8, the Spurs will have options close to what one would expect in a higher-rated draft class.
Overall, things couldn’t have gone much better.
-The two lottery picks that would be questionable for the Spurs are big men Alex Sarr and Donovan Clingan. It was clear in Victor Wembanyama’s rookie season that he functioned better at center, so adding a young center to the mix would have been tricky.
With the way things have gone, it looks good that Sarr and Clingan will be drafted in the top three. In fact, my first guess is that the Atlanta Hawks will take Sarr at #1 and the Washington Wizards will take Clingan at #2. If the Wizards don’t take Clingan, the Houston Rockets could take him at No. 3. If Sarr and Clingan move ahead of San Antonio’s pick, it gives the Spurs a very good chance to land the best player on their Big Board.
-The calculus of who to take at No. 4 could very well be altered by the fact that Spurs also have No. 8. For example, if the Spurs view Robert Dillingham, Nikola Topic and Reed Sheppard as interchangeable point guard prospects, it might make sense to go with a swingman at No. 4.
For example, Zaccharie Risacher at No. 4, then whoever stays out of Dillingham, Topic or Sheppard at No. 8 might be the logical move.
If the Spurs value Dillingham, Topic or Sheppard at the top of their board, there is no problem signing any of the three at No. 4. Then, at No. 8, San Antonio could go with the best wing – most likely Risacher, Matas Buzelis. , Cody Williams or Stephon Castle.
-Another way to look at it is that, assuming Sarr and Clingan make the top seven as expected, the Spurs are guaranteed to be able to sign two of the following players: Dillingham, Risacher, Sheppard, Topic, Buzelis, Williams and Castle. . That’s exciting.
San Antonio also has options if they want to take a safer, win-now route (Dalton Knecht) or a higher route (Ron Holland or Tidjane Salaun).
-My favorite early combos the Spurs end up with are Dillingham and Risacher, Topic and Castle, or Sheppard and Williams. However, that could change after we see the measurements at the combine.
-Could the Spurs end up trading one or both of their lottery picks? Of course I could see it. If the Spurs see a specific player they want to pair with Wembanyama, using those lottery picks to acquire him would most likely be a justifiable move. I like a handful of these prospects, but none of them project to be franchise-altering players.
Additionally, with the number of picks coming to San Antonio in the coming years, there are only a limited number of roster spots available to use to develop talent. Consolidating some youth and assets to acquire a higher level piece of the puzzle makes perfect sense.
-The only thing that constitutes a disappointment about Sunday’s lottery from the Spurs’ perspective is that the Hawks get the No. 1 pick. Atlanta owes the Spurs several unprotected picks, so it’s bad news that they now have a good chance to add talent.
Then again, this draft really doesn’t have any game-changing talent at the top. Sarr, for example, is a good prospect, but it will likely take a few years for him to become a particularly impactful player. San Antonio’s picks among the Hawks became less valuable today – but not much less valuable. Specifically, the needle probably hasn’t moved on the value of the unprotected 2025 first-round pick.
-In the second round, the Spurs also have two picks: their own 35th selection and the 48th pick via the Los Angeles Lakers. With two lottery picks to consider, it’s going to be difficult to put much thought into these two lower-tier selections – especially since the Spurs will likely trade away their second-round players due to the number of youngsters already on the roster.
-Wembanyama’s lottery win last year will be a day Spurs fans will never forget. Today’s result wasn’t as big, but it should be two steps in the direction of building San Antonio’s next contending team.
